Can American Capital find a rich suitor?
More consolidation may be coming to the world of private equity lenders. Debt-laden Allied Capital solved its long-standing problems last week when it sold itself to Ares Capital. Rival American Capital, once an S&P 500 component but now struggling for survival, could be the next takeover target.
But some investors wonder if Allied got a raw deal. Ares paid $3.47 a share in stock for a company that had a book value of $7.49 in June. One law firm has already launched a “shareholder investigation“. Similarly, American Capital’s shares trade below $3, compared with a book value of $8.76 at the end of June.
Ares Capital is one of the rare healthy players in the field. It has a strong balance sheet and minimal liquidity concerns, and it has managed to pay a dividend throughout the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression. For an Allied shareholder used to a continuous flow of bad news, swapping that stake for an investment in a healthy company must seem like a good move.
Like Allied, American Capital has suffered as the recession reduced the value of the companies it invested in. As a result, it’s gotten harder to sell them except at distressed prices. That value reduction is a big blow for a cash-starved company that has already defaulted on $2.3 billion of debt.
Both American Capital and Allied have sold portfolio companies at heavy discounts to their purchase prices. Now with equity markets sharply up from their doomsday-scenario lows in March, American Capital is on an aggressive selling spree. Recently it sold components distributor Imperial Supplies to W.W. Grainger and life sciences equipment maker Axygen BioScience to Corning.
Unfortunately for American Capital, it may not have all that many more companies in its portfolio to sell at decent prices. Its best bet may be to find a healthy suitor for itself so it can return some capital to shareholders before it’s too late.
– Anurag Kotoky
from Commentaries:
Consolidation Air, nobody’s favourite airline
With airlines around the world struggling to survive the economic downturn, the time should be nearing to break the taboo of consolidation in the sector.
Airlines around the globe face losses of $11 billion in 2009, according to IATA. Margins are expected to fall this year and next, with analysts predicting carriers are likely to struggle for years to reach levels needed to produce an acceptable return for capital market investors.
Societe Generale estimated in a recent note that margins would drop to -3.1 percent in 2010 before recovering to 1 percent in 2011, well short of the 10 percent needed.
Effectively we are back to the ice age of 2001-2.
Eight years ago, the collapse of Sabena and Swissair kicked open the door of cross-border consolidation -- within Europe at least. But while deals like Lufthansa's merger with the Swiss airline allowed for some rationalisation, the merged entities remain hamstrung by national aviation regulations.
Replacing this patchwork of national carriers with viable global companies able to withstand economic shocks is the necessary next step.
The European Union's open skies agreement has shown what is possible. It has allowed M&A to take place within the bloc, and this has led to the creation of four major players -- Air France-KLM, British Airways, Lufthansa and Ryanair.
What a joke. Yea all their companies have accurate marks.
They are in default on covenants. The debt holders are in the drivers seat.
Next sell off in the stock market and they will be forced to file. Then Malon can go back to the commune.