DealZone

Deloitte’s Energy and Resources group says M&A in these sectors could return to “pre-recession levels” by 2011. In particular, it says the rise of big state-backed rivals is putting pressure on large mining groups, in much the same way Big Oil came under pressure a decade ago. From the group’s 2010 predictions report:

“During 2009, mining M&A has been led by the junior or mid-level players, which have to consolidate if they want to stay alive and not be swallowed up by the bigger firms. Indeed, many anticipate that the mining sector will continue to consolidate until there are a handful of supermajor firms like there are in oil & gas.

“Large mining companies will increasingly need to buy rivals and subsequently sell off assets to gain synergies if they are to compete with state-owned companies, particularly those from China.

“These conditions mirror those encountered by large oil companies a decade ago, when massive consolidation swept the industry in response to the rise of national oil companies (NOCs) such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom,Petrobras, and others.”

But what are the deals? Anglo-Xstrata is off (for now), as is BHP-Rio. Maybe it’s just a matter of time. Anyhow, in oil and power the team say:

It would be hard to describe July as a banner month for mergers and acquisitions.

Friday’s data from Thomson Reuters shows it was the first month since Sept. 2004 where announced deals totalled less than $100 billion, and the first month in almost six years without a single $5 billion-plus deal. But top executives are starting to talk M&A again, and bankers are starting to lay the groundwork for future deals. As Michael Erman and I wrote earlier:

“Bankers are pointing to early signs of a pick-up in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with stronger stocks and easier credit conditions helping company bosses regain the confidence to do deals.