from Breakingviews:
Wal-Mart sounds pricy vuvuzela on African growth
Wal-Mart <WMT.N> has finally sounded the vuvuzela on African expansion. After months of speculation about how it would try to capitalize on the continent's growth, the U.S. retailer is offering $4.2 billion to acquire South Africa's Massmart Holdings <MSMJ.J>. The price could grate on shareholders' ears. But the deal gives Wal-Mart a local vehicle -- and local knowledge -- to help it gain access to a market with a profile that should suit it well.
If the deal is accepted by Massmart, Wal-Mart will be paying close to 13 times the Johannesburg-based retailer's EBITDA. For a company that trades at closer to 7 times, that's a big premium, albeit a drop in the bucket against Wal-Mart's nearly $200 billion market capitalization.
But Wal-Mart will get a foothold in what should be a bright spot in the world's growth map. South Africa, where Massmart operates 232 stores from Limpopo in the northeast to the Western Cape, is one of the CIVETS economies (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) widely hailed as the next sizable emerging markets.
The International Monetary Fund estimates sub-Saharan output will grow nearly 6 percent per annum from 2011. Capitalizing on this would be a stretch for Wal-Mart from its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters. Sure, the retailer has become a smart international operator and broadly understands poorer shoppers, something Africa has in unfortunate abundance. But Wal-Mart would lack local knowledge in a new market.
Piggybacking on Massmart's business makes African expansion a much less risky proposition for the U.S. giant. From its home market where it operates a variety of retail formats, the South African group has been rolling out its Game mass-discount stores in Botswana, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and elsewhere.
Moreover, buying Massmart should boost margins in Wal-Mart's international business, which accounts for around a quarter of its revenue. While Wal-Mart International's operating margins were around 3.8 percent in the first half of this year, Massmart's stood at closer to 5 percent. Apply Wal-Mart's massive purchasing power, and profitability could increase further.
This entry ticket to a CIVETS lair doesn't come cheap. But with growth elusive at home, it should be a price Wal-Mart shareholders are happy to pay.
DealZone Daily
The Dubai government unveiled plans to recapitalise its indebted Dubai World flagship and repay Nakheel bonds in full, injecting what it said was $9.5 billion in new funding, but without new aid from Abu Dhabi. Read the Reuters story here.
Bharti Airtel looked set to wrap up its $9 billion deal to buy most of Kuwaiti telecom group Zain’s African assets, giving India’s top mobile operator a foothold in the frontier market after two failed attempts to buy South Africa’s MTN. Read the Reuters story here.
For more on these and the rest of the latest deal-related news from Reuters, click here.
In M&A and corporate finance news reported by other media on Wednesday:
German carmaker Daimler AG and France’s Renault are close to deciding on a wide-ranging strategic partnership that would include a swap of small equity stakes, the Financial Times said, citing unnamed sources close to the situation.
Adelson splashes the pot in Asia
Sands China’s weak debut in Hong Kong - a first-day drop of 10 percent – was the fourth-worst launch on that market this year, but came as little shock to analysts who were betting against the Asian gambling play. Rival Wynn Macau is down 5 percent since listing in October.
Sands China’s $2.5 billion IPO wasn’t helped by the default tremors kicked off by Dubai, which has helped to expose a whole new area of risky bets in emerging markets.
“The fever for casino stocks is seen to be over now,” said Patrick Yiu, a director at CASH Asset Management. “Investors are worrying about the industry outlook, especially keen competition, when more casinos are ready for business.”
“We’re not in this for a day’s trading, we’re in it for the long term,” Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson said.
So is this a time to hold ‘em, fold ‘em, walk away or run? Adelson clearly is not counting his money while sitting at the table, and there will be many who argue that betting against the Chinese appetite for gambling never made anyone rich. More likely, fund managers will look for more attractive price points to place their bets, while Sands plays with house money.
from Summit Notebook:
Expect action in Japanese M&A
After falling off a cliff at the start of this year as the global financial crisis gripped, mergers and acquisitions by Japanese companies overseas are likely to pick up again in the second half of this year, according to boutique Japanese M&A advisory firm Recof Corp.
There won't be a flood of deals, Recof President Hikari Imai says, but the ones there are, are likely to be chunky as Japanese companies expand their frontiers beyond domestic markets where growth prospects are limited.
Geographically the focus is likely to be Asia -- China, India in particular and possibly the Philippines or Australia. And the types of companies looking abroad will broaden as well, Imai told the Reuters Japan Investment Summit.
Recof expects Japanese power utilities, paper, food and beverage and retailing firms to look abroad at markets where they can put their advanced technology and inventory control systems to use.
The sort of companies that up till now have been focused on their home base. Driving all of this will be expectations of lack of growth in Japan's own markets as it climbs slowly out of recession and its population ages -- and saturation domestically.
So Imai reckons yen strength and the big drop in stock markets everywhere mean it may be an opportune moment for companies with overseas ambitions.
