DealZone

DealZone Daily

Time Warner is considering making a second-round bid of up to $1.5 billion for Hollywood studio Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, a source tells us. The March 19 deadline for the bids for MGM — whose film library includes the James Bond and Pink Panther franchises — may well be extended.

Shares in Arrow Energy have been suspended — the suspicion is that Royal Dutch Shell and Petrochina will sweeten their joint $3 billion offer for the Australian gas producer. Read the Reuters story here.

And as I am writing this, London-listed Gulfsands Petroleum is saying that it has rejected a preliminary takeover approach. The suitor is Indian, it has also said, but it’s not ONGC. To be continued.

For all other news on deals from Reuters, click here. In rival media:

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group chairman Li Shufu indicated talks to buy Ford’s Volvo car unit had hit a snag due to problems at Ford, but continues to expect to complete the deal, says a story in the Wall Street Journal.

Takeover target Arriva is refusing to open its books to Deutsche Bahn unless the German firm increases its almost 1.4 billion pounds ($2.1 billion) bid for the train and bus operator, according to UK newspaper The Times.

from Breakingviews:

Safe Volvo a risk bet for China’s Geely

Shares in Geely Automobile have risen some 40 percent in the past month partly on hopes the Chinese carmaker's parent company will buy Volvo. Ford has named Geely as preferred bidder for the Swedish marque. But on this occasion it could be better to travel hopefully than to arrive.

Buying Volvo would be a huge mouthful for Geely. If it goes ahead, Geely and founder Li Shufu will have to write Ford a cheque for $2 billion. But that's just for starters. Volvo lost $1.5 billion last year. Assuming it continued at the same rate during Geely's first year of ownership, the Chinese would pretty quickly be in for $3.5 billion.

By way of comparison, that is almost 20 percent more than Geely Automotive's enterprise value of just $3 billion. And it doesn't include any further investment Geely might make. The long-term plans being talked about in the media suggest the total could hit about $10 billion. Achieving an acceptable return on that would require a dramatic turnaround in Volvo's fortunes.

from Commentaries:

Is Goldman’s Chinese convertible really a taxi?

BRITAIN/The number of London's trademark black taxis booked and waiting outside the European headquarters of Goldman Sachs -- meters running -- was once used by some as a barometer of the health of London's investment banking business.

When times were good, the queue was long and it was impossible for anyone else in the vicinity to hail a cab. But when the fees dried up, or markets turned, the cabbies who'd been at Goldman's beck and call suddenly had to find new customers.

Last year, Goldman was reported to have stopped free taxis home for staff working in the office after 9pm, extending this to 10pm.

Eastbound Traffic

Was there ever any doubt that China, having donned the overalls of the world’s manufacturer, would ultimately emerge as a top bidder in the race for sputtering global auto assets? Not only does the country have the labor force to build the automobile of tomorrow, but increasingly it has the consumer class to buy it.

So it would seem natural for Swedish luxury sports car maker Koenigsegg to tie up with China’s BAIC to help finance its purchase of Saab from General Motors. And news that the parent of China’s Geely Automotive wants to bid for Ford’s Swedish brand, Volvo, is as much a confirmation of a trend as it is evidence of a tectonic shift in the industry.

Like its neighbors Japan and South Korea before it, China has the tools to revitalize the auto industry by applying its low-cost muscle. The trick will be to nurture these imported brands and their technological expertise so they can survive the transition. China has never been known as a paradigm of consumer safety – at least not in a way befitting Volvo.