DealZone

With airlines around the world struggling to survive the economic downturn, the time should be nearing to break the taboo of consolidation in the sector.

Airlines around the globe face losses of $11 billion in 2009, according to IATA. Margins are expected to fall this year and next, with analysts predicting carriers are likely to struggle for years to reach levels needed to produce an acceptable return for capital market investors.

Societe Generale estimated in a recent note that margins would drop to -3.1 percent in 2010 before recovering to 1 percent in 2011, well short of the 10 percent needed.

Effectively we are back to the ice age of 2001-2.

Eight years ago, the collapse of Sabena and Swissair kicked open the door of cross-border consolidation -- within Europe at least. But while deals like Lufthansa's merger with the Swiss airline allowed for some rationalisation, the merged entities remain hamstrung by national aviation regulations.

Replacing this patchwork of national carriers with viable global companies able to withstand economic shocks is the necessary next step.

You’ve got to admit that when Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary (left) told journalists in London on Tuesday that the low-cost airliner was studying a bid to buy Germany’s flag carrier Lufthansa, he must have meant it as a joke.

For Ryanair to acquire Lufthansa is a bit like taking ice to the North Pole: a bit far-fetched now, but certainly plausible in the near future. “We are having a serious look at Lufthansa. We could almost buy it for cash,” O’Leary confidently told the media.

But he also qualified those comments with his usual effusive charm, saying: “We are not planning any bids for Lufthansa in the foreseeable future, but it is the only one of the other three large airlines that we would be interested in.”  That rules out British Airways, which is still in merger talks with Iberia. O’Leary doesn’t want the hassle of its pension fund. It also excludes Air France-KLM, the world’s largest airliner by revenues.

European airline mergers, long expected, are now taking wing.

Air France-KLM in January bought a 25-percent stake in Alitalia after a failed attempt at buying the entire carrier last year. The airline fought it out with Lufthansa, which lost the battle but didn’t sit around moping. It quickly launched Lufthansa Italia, which took its maiden flight a few days ago.

Ryanair, Europe’s largest discount airline, has withdrawn its bid for Aer Lingus after the irish government rejected the $1 billion deal. Ryanair is now expected to look for alternative targets.

British Airways remains in merger talks with Spain’s Iberia. Those talks have become complicated by the pound’s recent slide against the euro, making Iberia’s market capitalization now higher than BA’s.

What a difference two years makes. After being foiled by EU regulators in 2006, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary is back with another bid for Aer Lingus, but in the midst of an economic slowdown he has cut the offer price in half, to 750 million pounds ($970 million).

The sharply reduced price is unlikely to endear Ryanair to Aer Lingus management, trade unions or the Irish government. But amid broader consolidation trends in the industry, analysts give the low-cost upstart a slightly better chance of success with EU regulators this time around.

More deals of the day:

** Irish banks will move in the coming weeks to facilitate investments of up to 10 billion euros ($12.94 billion) in fresh capital from government, private equity and other sources, the Irish Examiner reported.