RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (Reuters) – Pakistan offered on Monday to train Afghanistan’s security forces with the dual aim of helping to secure a friendly neighbor over its western border while also watching old rival India over its eastern border.

The United States and Afghanistan’s other Western allies want Afghan forces to take over security responsibilities as a vital step toward the eventual withdrawal of foreign soldiers now battling an intensifying Taliban insurgency.

Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kayani said Pakistan was offering to help train Afghanistan’s security forces but he warned it would take years before they would be in a position to take over from foreign forces.

“If we get more involved with the ANA (Afghan National Army) there’s more interaction and better understanding,” Kayani told reporters at his headquarters in Rawalpindi.

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan, Feb 1 (Reuters) – Pakistan offered on Monday to train Afghanistan’s security forces with the dual aim of helping to secure a friendly neighbour over its western border while also watching old rival India over its eastern border. The United States and Afghanistan’s other Western allies want Afghan forces to take over security responsibilities as a vital step toward the eventual withdrawal of foreign soldiers now battling an intensifying Taliban insurgency. Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kayani said Pakistan was offering to help train Afghanistan’s security forces but he warned it would take years before they would be in a position to take over from foreign forces. "If we get more involved with the ANA (Afghan National Army) there’s more interaction and better understanding," Kayani told reporters at his headquarters in Rawalpindi. "We have opened all doors … It’s a win-win for Afghanistan, the United States, ISAF and Pakistan," he said, referring to NATO’s International Security Assistance Force. He said he believed it would take at least four years to achieve a target of a 140,000-strong Afghan force able to take over security responsibilities. Afghanistan is not likely to jump at the Pakistani offer. Pakistan is viewed with deep suspicion in Kabul because of its ties to the Taliban, who Pakistan backed through the 1990s. Afghanistan says the Taliban still get help from Pakistan. Pakistan denies any official backing but, nevertheless, the Afghan Taliban draw much support from Pakistani supply networks. Many Taliban leaders and their families are also believed to be in Pakistan. "STRATEGIC DEPTH" While Afghanistan is wary of Pakistan, Islamabad is deeply suspicious of the close ties India has built with the U.S.-backed government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Pakistan sees the Afghan government as dominated by traditionally pro-Indian and anti-Pakistani ethnic Tajiks. Pakistan says India is supporting separatist rebels in its gas-rich Baluchistan province from Afghanistan. For years, Pakistan saw Afghanistan in terms of "strategic depth", meaning, in the event of Indian forces rolling over its eastern border, Pakistani forces could withdraw over the western border into a friendly Afghanistan and fight back from there. But Kayani said Pakistan just wanted a friendly Afghanistan. "’Strategic depth’ does not imply controlling Afghanistan," he said. "If Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly we have our strategic depth because our western border is secure … You’re not looking both ways." Kayani did not comment on the possibility of Pakistan using its links with the Afghan Taliban to push them towards peace talks. Pakistan has shown support for an invitation that Karzai issued last week for the Taliban to take part in a peace council. But Kayani stressed the importance of public backing of anti-insurgent operations in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Referring to a U.S.-backed Afghan plan to lure lower-level Taliban out of the insurgency, Kayani said a vital factor was the public perception of who was going to prevail. "They sit on the crossroads, waiting to see who is winning and losing," he said. (Editing by Paul Tait) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see:here an) ((robert.birsel@thomsonreuters.com; +92 51 281 0017; Reuters Messaging: robert.birsel.reuters.com@reuters.net))

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistan has shown support for Afghanistan’s invitation to the Taliban to take part in a peace council but the old Taliban ally has only limited influence over the militants, who many expect will reject the offer.

The Afghan government on Thursday invited the Taliban to a jirga, or traditional council, during an international conference in London as its Western allies worked out plans to try to end the war in Afghanistan.

Taliban representatives were not at the conference. A spokesman for the group said on Friday his leaders would decide soon whether to join the talks.

Pakistan, facing an insurgency by indigenous Taliban allied with the Afghan militants, wants a peaceful Afghanistan but more importantly, it wants the growing influence of old rival India in Afghanistan kept to a minimum.

ISLAMABAD, Jan 29 (Reuters) – Pakistan has shown support for Afghanistan’s invitation to the Taliban to take part in a peace council but the old Taliban ally has only limited influence over the militants, who many expect will reject the offer. The Afghan government on Thursday invited the Taliban to a jirga, or traditional council, during an international conference in London as its Western allies worked out plans to try to end the war in Afghanistan. Taliban representatives were not at the conference. A spokesman for the group said on Friday his leaders would decide soon whether to join the talks. [ID:nSGE60S0FM] Pakistan, facing an insurgency by indigenous Taliban allied with the Afghan militants, wants a peaceful Afghanistan but more importantly, it wants the growing influence of old rival India in Afghanistan kept to a minimum. Pakistan is viewed with deep suspicion in Kabul because of its ties to the Taliban, whom Pakistan backed through the 1990s. The hardline Islamists are the only Afghanistan faction over which Pakistan has any influence and can use as leverage to try to limit India’s influence, and for the time being, Pakistan is likely to tread very carefully. Main Taliban factions, such as those led by veteran guerrilla commander Jalaluddin Haqqani and supreme Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar, derive much support from supply networks and bases on the Pakistani side of the border. As efforts to stabilise Afghanistan gather pace, Pakistan is likely to use those groups as bargaining chips, said Khadim Hussain of the Pakistan-based Aryana Institute think-tank. "I don’t think Pakistan is going to put all of its cards on the table. They will try to keep some of them for their own interests and agenda," Hussain said. "Pakistan will keep the whole thing very vague so it can address its own interests and foreign policy agenda." In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the U.N. representative for Afghanistan in Dubai last month to discuss the possibility of laying down arms. TROOPS OUT Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi said in London he was satisfied with the outcome of the international conference, which he said had addressed all Pakistani concerns. Pakistan has long stressed the need for talks and Qureshi said Pakistan would help, if asked. "Pakistan has said that we want the reconciliation process to be Afghan-led," Qureshi told a news conference. "If the Afghans so desire, we are willing to facilitate." Underlining Pakistan’s determination to keep India out of any Afghan process, Qureshi expressed satisfaction a proposal to set up a regional body including India had been dropped. "Pakistan said there was no need for a new regional architecture … Today, our point of view was understood and incorporated." But analysts said the question of Pakistani pressure on the Taliban to get them to the jirga might be irrelevant if, as they expect, the Taliban reject the invitation. "Pakistan does not have as much influence over the Taliban as it used to," said a former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, Ayaz Wazir. Even when Pakistan was one of three countries to recognise the Taliban government, they never took orders, he said. "They would listen to Pakistan but then do whatever they wanted. Why would they accept our advice now when they’re fighting on their own?," Wazir said, adding he thought the Taliban would reject the invitation to talks. "If they wanted to take part in such jirgas then they wouldn’t have fought for eight or nine years," he said. "They don’t accept Karzai and say he is imposed by the United States, then why would they join this? First they want foreign troops to leave." Veteran journalist and Afghan expert Rahimullah Yusufzai said the Taliban had shown signs of flexibility, saying they would not let Afghan soil be used for attacks on others in an apparent reference to reining in their al Qaeda allies. But he also said the Taliban were unlikely to attend the jirga and would repeat their demand for foreign troops to leave. However, the jirga could lure some ethnic Pashtun tribes allied with the Taliban back to the fold, said Hussain. "I don’t think there is going to be any compromise by those Taliban closely linked to the international jihadist network," he said. "But as far as the affiliated tribes are concerned, they can be negotiated with." (Additional reporting by Myra MacDonald; Editing by Jerry Norton) ((For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: here))

ISLAMABAD, Jan 29 (Reuters) – Pakistan has shown support for Afghanistan’s invitation to the Taliban to take part in a peace council but the old Taliban ally has only limited influence over the militants, who many expect will reject the offer. The Afghan government on Thursday invited the Taliban to a jirga, or traditional council, during an international conference in London as its Western allies worked out plans to try to end the war in Afghanistan. Taliban representatives were not at the conference. A spokesman for the group said on Friday his leaders would decide soon whether to join the talks. [ID:nSGE60S0FM] Pakistan, facing an insurgency by indigenous Taliban allied with the Afghan militants, wants a peaceful Afghanistan but more importantly, it wants the growing influence of old rival India in Afghanistan kept to a minimum. Pakistan is viewed with deep suspicion in Kabul because of its ties to the Taliban, whom Pakistan backed through the 1990s. The hardline Islamists are the only Afghanistan faction over which Pakistan has any influence and can use as leverage to try to limit India’s influence, and for the time being, Pakistan is likely to tread very carefully. Main Taliban factions, such as those led by veteran guerrilla commander Jalaluddin Haqqani and supreme Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar, derive much support from supply networks and bases on the Pakistani side of the border. As efforts to stabilise Afghanistan gather pace, Pakistan is likely to use those groups as bargaining chips, said Khadim Hussain of the Pakistan-based Aryana Institute think-tank. "I don’t think Pakistan is going to put all of its cards on the table. They will try to keep some of them for their own interests and agenda," Hussain said. "Pakistan will keep the whole thing very vague so it can address its own interests and foreign policy agenda." In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the U.N. representative for Afghanistan in Dubai last month to discuss the possibility of laying down arms. TROOPS OUT Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi said in London he was satisfied with the outcome of the international conference, which he said had addressed all Pakistani concerns. Pakistan has long stressed the need for talks and Qureshi said Pakistan would help, if asked. "Pakistan has said that we want the reconciliation process to be Afghan-led," Qureshi told a news conference. "If the Afghans so desire, we are willing to facilitate." Underlining Pakistan’s determination to keep India out of any Afghan process, Qureshi expressed satisfaction a proposal to set up a regional body including India had been dropped. "Pakistan said there was no need for a new regional architecture … Today, our point of view was understood and incorporated." But analysts said the question of Pakistani pressure on the Taliban to get them to the jirga might be irrelevant if, as they expect, the Taliban reject the invitation. "Pakistan does not have as much influence over the Taliban as it used to," said a former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, Ayaz Wazir. Even when Pakistan was one of three countries to recognise the Taliban government, they never took orders, he said. "They would listen to Pakistan but then do whatever they wanted. Why would they accept our advice now when they’re fighting on their own?," Wazir said, adding he thought the Taliban would reject the invitation to talks. "If they wanted to take part in such jirgas then they wouldn’t have fought for eight or nine years," he said. "They don’t accept Karzai and say he is imposed by the United States, then why would they join this? First they want foreign troops to leave." Veteran journalist and Afghan expert Rahimullah Yusufzai said the Taliban had shown signs of flexibility, saying they would not let Afghan soil be used for attacks on others in an apparent reference to reining in their al Qaeda allies. But he also said the Taliban were unlikely to attend the jirga and would repeat their demand for foreign troops to leave. However, the jirga could lure some ethnic Pashtun tribes allied with the Taliban back to the fold, said Hussain. "I don’t think there is going to be any compromise by those Taliban closely linked to the international jihadist network," he said. "But as far as the affiliated tribes are concerned, they can be negotiated with." (Additional reporting by Myra MacDonald; Editing by Jerry Norton) ((For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: here))

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – The Taliban have spread across Afghanistan and are inflicting sharply higher casualties but they might be persuaded to negotiate, with Pakistani help, as they reach the height of their power, a Pakistani analyst has said.

The United States is sending an extra 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan nine years after driving the Taliban from power but U.S. commanders realize they “cannot shoot their way to victory,” analyst Ahmed Rashid said in paper.

“Despite their successes, the Taliban are probably now near the height of their power,” Rashid, a prominent expert on Afghanistan, said in the paper published in the latest issue of the New York Review of Books.

While a country-wide movement, the Taliban do not control population centres, nor will they, given the strength of U.S.-led NATO forces, he said.

ISLAMABAD, Jan 22 (Reuters) – The Taliban have spread across Afghanistan and are inflicting sharply higher casualties but they might be persuaded to negotiate, with Pakistani help, as they reach the height of their power, a Pakistani analyst has said. The United States is sending an extra 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan nine years after driving the Taliban from power but U.S. commanders realise they "cannot shoot their way to victory", analyst Ahmed Rashid said in paper. "Despite their successes, the Taliban are probably now near the height of their power," Rashid, a prominent expert on Afghanistan, said in the paper published in the latest issue of the New York Review of Books. While a country-wide movement, the Taliban do not control population centres, nor will they, given the strength of U.S.-led NATO forces, he said. At the same time, there was no populist insurrection against NATO forces and the majority of Afghans did not want the return of the Taliban despite anger with the U.S.-backed government of President Hamid Karzai, he said. "Thus, the next few months could offer a critical opportunity to persuade the Taliban that this is the best time to negotiate a settlement, because they are at their strongest," Rashid said.The Taliban, led by the reclusive Mullah Mohammad Omar, have shown the first hint of flexibility, Rashid said, beginning with a statement in November. "The Taliban leader … pledged that a future Taliban regime would bring peace and noninterference from outside forces, and would pose no threat to neighbouring countries — implying that al Qaeda would not be returning," he said. The new tone could be traced to secret talks in early 2009, sponsored by Saudi Arabia at Karzai’s request, he said. The talks brought no breakthrough, but led to visits to Saudi Arabia by important Taliban leaders. U.S. British, and Saudi officials who were indirectly in contact with the Taliban there encouraged them to renounce al Qaeda and lay out negotiating demands. "The Taliban said that distancing themselves from al Qaeda would require the other side to meet a principal demand of their own: that all foreign forces must announce a timetable to leave." U.S. President Barack Obama said in December he planned to start bringing soldiers home in 18 months. "GO FOR THE KILL" Pakistan’s main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which nurtured the Taliban through the 1990s, had been left out of the talks at the request of both the Taliban and the Afghan government, neither of whom trusted it, Rashid said. "That now may be about to change," Rashid said. "The key to more formal negotiations with Taliban leaders lies with Pakistan and the ISI." Pakistan is fearful of India’s influence in Afghanistan and of U.S. forces withdrawing and leaving the country in chaos, while it is also friendless in Afghanistan apart from the Taliban, even though they are wary of the ISI. Pakistan realised the West would never tolerate it backing a Taliban takeover of Kabul, as happened in 1996, Rashid said. "In a major policy shift, senior Pakistani military and intelligence officials say they have offered to help broker talks between Taliban leaders, the Americans and Karzai." The ISI has power and influence over the Taliban as the Taliban resupply their fighters from Pakistan, seek medical treatment there and based most leaders’ families there. Crucial to reconciliation with the Taliban would be the agreement of Afghanistan’s non-Pashtun ethnic groups, who make up just over half the population. Talks also needed a strategy to build political institutions and provide aid, he said. "Unless such publicly announced policies are carried out, the Taliban may well conclude that it is better and safer to sit out the next 18 months, wait for the Americans to start leaving, and then, when they judge Afghanistan to be vulnerable, go for the kill in Kabul."

ISLAMABAD, Jan 22 (Reuters) – The Taliban have spread across Afghanistan and are inflicting sharply higher casualties but they might be persuaded to negotiate, with Pakistani help, as they reach the height of their power, a Pakistani analyst has said. The United States is sending an extra 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan nine years after driving the Taliban from power but U.S. commanders realise they "cannot shoot their way to victory", analyst Ahmed Rashid said in paper. "Despite their successes, the Taliban are probably now near the height of their power," Rashid, a prominent expert on Afghanistan, said in the paper published in the latest issue of the New York Review of Books. While a country-wide movement, the Taliban do not control population centres, nor will they, given the strength of U.S.-led NATO forces, he said. At the same time, there was no populist insurrection against NATO forces and the majority of Afghans did not want the return of the Taliban despite anger with the U.S.-backed government of President Hamid Karzai, he said. "Thus, the next few months could offer a critical opportunity to persuade the Taliban that this is the best time to negotiate a settlement, because they are at their strongest," Rashid said.The Taliban, led by the reclusive Mullah Mohammad Omar, have shown the first hint of flexibility, Rashid said, beginning with a statement in November. "The Taliban leader … pledged that a future Taliban regime would bring peace and noninterference from outside forces, and would pose no threat to neighbouring countries — implying that al Qaeda would not be returning," he said. The new tone could be traced to secret talks in early 2009, sponsored by Saudi Arabia at Karzai’s request, he said. The talks brought no breakthrough, but led to visits to Saudi Arabia by important Taliban leaders. U.S. British, and Saudi officials who were indirectly in contact with the Taliban there encouraged them to renounce al Qaeda and lay out negotiating demands. "The Taliban said that distancing themselves from al Qaeda would require the other side to meet a principal demand of their own: that all foreign forces must announce a timetable to leave." U.S. President Barack Obama said in December he planned to start bringing soldiers home in 18 months. "GO FOR THE KILL" Pakistan’s main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which nurtured the Taliban through the 1990s, had been left out of the talks at the request of both the Taliban and the Afghan government, neither of whom trusted it, Rashid said. "That now may be about to change," Rashid said. "The key to more formal negotiations with Taliban leaders lies with Pakistan and the ISI." Pakistan is fearful of India’s influence in Afghanistan and of U.S. forces withdrawing and leaving the country in chaos, while it is also friendless in Afghanistan apart from the Taliban, even though they are wary of the ISI. Pakistan realised the West would never tolerate it backing a Taliban takeover of Kabul, as happened in 1996, Rashid said. "In a major policy shift, senior Pakistani military and intelligence officials say they have offered to help broker talks between Taliban leaders, the Americans and Karzai." The ISI has power and influence over the Taliban as the Taliban resupply their fighters from Pakistan, seek medical treatment there and based most leaders’ families there. Crucial to reconciliation with the Taliban would be the agreement of Afghanistan’s non-Pashtun ethnic groups, who make up just over half the population. Talks also needed a strategy to build political institutions and provide aid, he said. "Unless such publicly announced policies are carried out, the Taliban may well conclude that it is better and safer to sit out the next 18 months, wait for the Americans to start leaving, and then, when they judge Afghanistan to be vulnerable, go for the kill in Kabul."

By Robert Birsel

(Reuters) – Defense Secretary Robert Gates made an unannounced trip to Pakistan on Thursday, hoping to deepen ties and persuade the nuclear-armed U.S. ally to root out all militants on its soil, including Afghan Taliban factions.

Here are some questions and answers about U.S.-Pakistani relations:

WHY IS PAKISTAN IMPORTANT FOR THE UNITED STATES?

Jan 21 (Reuters) – U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates made an unannounced trip to Pakistan on Thursday, hoping to deepen ties and persuade the nuclear-armed U.S. ally to root out all militants on its soil, including Afghan Taliban factions. Here are some questions and answers about U.S.-Pakistani relations: WHY IS PAKISTAN IMPORTANT FOR THE UNITED STATES? Pakistani support is crucial for the United States as it strives to defeat al Qaeda and bring stability to Afghanistan. Pakistan has captured and handed over to the United States numerous al Qaeda members, including Sept. 11 plotter Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding somewhere along the lawless Afghan border. The army is attacking Pakistani Taliban militants, but the United States is pressing Islamabad to act also against Afghan Taliban factions, based in northwestern Pakistani border enclaves, it blames for surging violence in Afghanistan. The U.S. military says Afghan Taliban leaders are based in Pakistan "reportedly" aided by elements of Pakistan’s main spy agency. Pakistan denies that, as well as a U.S. assertion that an Afghan Taliban leadership council is based in the Pakistani city of Quetta. A large volume of supplies for the U.S. military in landlocked Afghanistan is trucked from Pakistan’s Karachi port. WHY IS THE UNITED STATES IMPORTANT FOR PAKISTAN? The United States is Pakistan’s biggest aid donor and has given about $15 billion in direct aid and military reimbursements since 2002, about two-thirds of it security related. While Pakistan is being propped up by an $11.3 billion International Monetary Fund loan, a new U.S. aid package triples non-military assistance to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year over the next five years. Conditions attached to the package — including those related to counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation efforts — angered many Pakistanis, including the powerful military. Pakistan would also like the United States to press India to resolve the core dispute between the nuclear-armed South Asian rivals, the divided region of Kashmir. India is opposed to outside involvement. WHAT ARE THE MAIN IRRITANTS? There is suspicion on both sides and analysts speak of a "trust deficit". Many Pakistanis feel the United States has blown hot and cold toward them based on its own strategic interests. The United States used Pakistan as a staging area to help supply Afghan fighters who drove the Soviet Union from Afghanistan in 1989. It subsequently largely retreated from the area, leaving Afghanistan in chaos and many Pakistanis and Afghans feeling abandoned. Many Pakistanis are opposed to U.S. involvement and polls show a majority of Pakistanis hold an unfavourable view of the U.S. government. Pakistan, which has lost about 2,000 soldiers fighting the Taliban, is angered by repeated U.S. calls for it to do more. The United States has expressed confidence in the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons but it remains worried about nuclear proliferation. Strikes by missile-firing U.S. drones on militants in northwest Pakistan have also enraged many Pakistanis, although some U.S. officials say the strikes are carried out under an agreement that allows Pakistani leaders to decry the attacks in public. Pakistan denies that and warns that any expansion of strikes, or incursions by U.S. ground troops, would damage ties. U.S. officials said last month Pakistan was delaying hundreds of visas for U.S. officials and contractors which could hamper U.S. aid programmes and further strain their alliance. Most recently, Pakistan has been angered that its citizens will be subjected to special checks when flying to the United States under new U.S. regulations introduced after a Nigerian tried to blow up a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day. (For main story, click on [ID:nSGE60K0BV]) (Editing by Alex Richardson)