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May 22, 2012

Did Chesapeake miss Enron lessons?

(The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.)

By Christopher Swann and Robert Cyran

NEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Chesapeake Energy (CHK.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the embattled U.S. natural gas producer, seems to have missed some of the lessons of Enron’s demise. There have been no allegations of fraud. But the U.S. gas firm’s vast trading operation, fondness for complicated holdings and relationships, and corporate generosity are among the traits that, in hindsight, should have invited greater scrutiny of Enron’s edifice.

Chesapeake is a force in the U.S. gas market. It owns real assets, and it is the second-largest producer in the United States, accounting for about 9 percent of gross domestic gas supply according to a recent company presentation. It is the most active driller of new U.S. wells, and has substantial proven and unproven reserves. Meanwhile, joint-venture partners including Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) of France and Norway’s Statoil (STL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) attest to the substance of the projects they are involved in.

By contrast, while Enron’s byzantine structure and other questionable features may have developed to support aggressive expansion, they ultimately helped conceal essentially fake trading activities and fraudulent accounting. There is no suggestion that is the case, or might ever be the case, at Chesapeake. And other companies are complex or, for instance, offer generous perks without running into trouble. Yet it’s notable that Chesapeake, a self-described “bold” competitor in a sector close to Enron’s, has seemingly failed to avoid some of the defunct energy giant’s well documented flaws.

Corporate complexity

Some Wall Street analysts admitted that they didn’t really know how Enron made money. The company had evolved into a labyrinthine organization that combined real energy assets, a black box trading operation and a web of off-balance sheet structures.

May 18, 2012
via Breakingviews

Facebook IPO features best and worst of capitalism

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By Robert Cyran The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Facebook’s initial public offering on Friday showcases the best and worst sides of capitalism. Execrable puffery accompanies the entrepreneurial achievement of transforming a dorm-room project into a company worth over $100 billion in just eight years. Poor corporate governance, Silicon Valley cronyism, breathless pundits spewing misinformation, bankers in hoodies and manic investors are all on display. And yet the flip side of such indulgence is worth admiring. 

Wall Street’s premier event of the year turned into an outright circus, including a 30-minute delay for the shares to start trading on Nasdaq despite considerable anticipation of the mega-volume that ensued. At its most benign, otherwise serious thinkers about capital markets devoted unthinkable amounts of time publicly debating whether founder Mark Zuckerberg’s casual dress was a slight to investors while financiers cravenly sucked up to the 28-year-old. But there’s a darker side to the hoopla, too. 

What exactly Facebook will become, or even what it wants to be, isn’t entirely clear. This, along with the social network’s rapid growth, allows investors to dream big. Stock analysts played along with this “Faithbook” conceit, creatively reverse engineering models to justify lofty valuations. The headlong indulgences left few to fear Zuckerberg’s control or the gray-market trading that allowed insiders to profit with asymmetric information ahead of the IPO. As insiders sold down, the hoi-polloi was invited to buy in at an alarming 25 times trailing revenue. 

Yet hype and greed are often the best way to interrupt economic torpor, spread new technologies and new forms of organizing business. Booms mobilize assets and talent – and fast. The benefits of the railroad, electricity, telecommunication and computer booms ultimately outweighed the costs of wasteful speculation. 

The same dynamics are evident in Facebook. Zuckerberg began with a simple idea that quickly became revenue-free Internet traffic. The prospect of being part of the next big thing attracted money from all over the world and encouraged clever programmers to come knocking. Entrepreneurs far and wide have taken inspiration from the saga and built businesses on the back of Facebook, and beyond. Amid the unseemly IPO mania, what is on display is the real genius of capitalism: the ability to harness excess.

May 18, 2012

Breakingviews: Facebook IPO features best and worst of capitalism

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

By Robert Cyran

NEW YORK, May 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Facebook’s initial public offering on Friday showcases the best and worst sides of capitalism. Execrable puffery accompanies the entrepreneurial achievement of transforming a dorm-room project into a company worth over $100 billion in just eight years. Poor corporate governance, Silicon Valley cronyism, breathless pundits spewing misinformation, bankers in hoodies and manic investors are all on display. And yet the flip side of such indulgence is worth admiring.

Wall Street’s premier event of the year turned into an outright circus, including a 30-minute delay for the shares to start trading on Nasdaq despite considerable anticipation of the mega-volume that ensued. At its most benign, otherwise serious thinkers about capital markets devoted unthinkable amounts of time publicly debating whether founder Mark Zuckerberg’s casual dress was a slight to investors while financiers cravenly sucked up to the 28-year-old. But there’s a darker side to the hoopla, too.

What exactly Facebook will become, or even what it wants to be, isn’t entirely clear. This, along with the social network’s rapid growth, allows investors to dream big. Stock analysts played along with this “Faithbook” conceit, creatively reverse engineering models to justify lofty valuations. The headlong indulgences left few to fear Zuckerberg’s control or the gray-market trading that allowed insiders to profit with asymmetric information ahead of the IPO. As insiders sold down, the hoi-polloi was invited to buy in at an alarming 25 times trailing revenue.

Yet hype and greed are often the best way to interrupt economic torpor, spread new technologies and new forms of organizing business. Booms mobilize assets and talent – and fast. The benefits of the railroad, electricity, telecommunication and computer booms ultimately outweighed the costs of wasteful speculation.

The same dynamics are evident in Facebook. Zuckerberg began with a simple idea that quickly became revenue-free Internet traffic. The prospect of being part of the next big thing attracted money from all over the world and encouraged clever programmers to come knocking. Entrepreneurs far and wide have taken inspiration from the saga and built businesses on the back of Facebook, and beyond. Amid the unseemly IPO mania, what is on display is the real genius of capitalism: the ability to harness excess.

May 14, 2012

Apple’s TV quest probably could do with some help

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

By Robert Cyran

NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Apple’s (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) opportunity in TV is pretty obvious by now. The simplification of frustrating and complex on-screen guides and remote controls is a task ripe for the gadget king, and one that Steve Jobs indicated to his biographer he had tackled. And while Apple isn’t known for big acquisitions, smaller, targeted ones have helped in past conquests. The scope of the TV market also would seem to lend itself to some outside help.

That’s probably one reason shares in luxury German TV maker Loewe (LOEG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) spiked after a blog post said Apple had offered to buy the company. The site in question has a spotty record and a Loewe spokesperson told a local IT journal there was “absolutely nothing” to the story. Then again, German corporate denials of merger talks are often as reliable as most blog posts.

Apple has turned TV into something decidedly more than a hobby. Its Apple TV gadget allows users to stream Netflix (NFLX.O: Quote, Profile, Research), YouTube and content from iTunes. But it falls well short of transforming the industry. It also doesn’t live up to Apple’s aesthetic or easy set-up standards.

In that context, buying Loewe would make some sense. Unlike Bang & Olufsen’s (BO.CO: Quote, Profile, Research) gear, where playful form can trump function, Loewe’s design is pure minimalism. They are also just what a customer might expect to pull out of a sleek white box with a bitten-apple logo. Jobs was a life-long fan of German design, driving Mercedes, admiring Braun and adoring his Miele washing machine.

For about 75 million euros, Loewe’s market capitalization after the spike, Apple could find plenty of value. Loewe’s designers, hardware engineers, intellectual property and television models probably would fit nicely with Apple’s storehouse of expertise. And the sum is a rounding error to Apple and its $110 billion of cash and investments. Even if Loewe has nothing to do with Apple’s future, the buzz on Monday reinforces the idea that TV almost certainly does.

May 14, 2012

Yahoo needs more than a revolution at the top

By Robert Cyran

NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) – Yahoo (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) needs more than a revolution at the top. The dysfunctional internet firm is much like a failing country. It has been mismanaged and suffers from bureaucracy and an increasingly uncompetitive business model. It even had, until recently, a dictator for life in founder Jerry Yang. Third Point’s successful shareholder revolt promises a fresh start, but fixing Yahoo won’t be simple. The firm is plagued by many ills.

To be sure, the $18.5 billion group can now try to move on after the departure of chief executive Scott Thompson, who admitted to embellishing his resume with a non-existent computer science degree and is also reported to be suffering from cancer. Moreover, there’s finally promise that Yahoo may address a core problem: its complacent board. It is replacing its chairman, too, and three directors including Third Point chief Dan Loeb will join the board.

Interim CEO Ross Levinsohn can likely reverse many of the changes sought under the short reign of his predecessor Thompson. A radical about-face would see the former head of News Corporation’s Fox digital arm focus on Yahoo’s media business instead of pushing into transactions and ambiguous fee-generating services.

But reinvigorating Yahoo won’t be easy. The firm has had five CEOs over the past five years, and largely missed the social and mobile revolutions overwhelming the Internet. Many of its best employees have emigrated to greener pastures elsewhere. This changing of the guard gives Yahoo a fresh start, but it will be a long, hard march back to relevance.

CONTEXT NEWS

- On May 11, Yahoo appointed Ross Levinsohn as interim chief executive officer and Fred Amoroso as chairman. It also announced it had reached an agreement with the hedge fund Third Point to settle a proxy contest. Three Third Point nominees – Daniel S. Loeb, Harry J. Wilson, and Michael J. Wolf – will join the Yahoo board effective May 16.

May 9, 2012
via Breakingviews

Boardroom gamblers roasted by their own hubris

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By Robert Cyran

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Someone should have told Robert Stiller and William Davis to wake up and smell the coffee. The top two board members of cup-of-Joe maker Green Mountain were removed from their posts on Tuesday by their fellow directors after having to sell stock in the company during a quiet period to meet margin calls. The fate of Stiller, the company’s founder and chairman, and Davis, its lead independent director, should serve as a lesson to all.

Consumer addiction to its single-serve coffee machines had made Green Mountain one of the best growth stories of the past decade. The stock rocketed and investors had gotten used to expecting a bright future – its shares were trading at more than 65 times earnings as recently as last September.

Yet the substance of this growth was increasingly being called into question. Aggressive accounting, poor cash flow, a curious series of mergers and patent protection on its coffee systems raised plenty of red flags among short-sellers. Poor quarterly results have made these widespread. The stock has now lost about 80 percent of its value from its peak and halved in price in the past week alone. This fall led to margin calls for the two board members.

Unfortunately, it’s not that uncommon. Over-exuberance about their companies’ prospects mixed with old-fashioned greed has forced executives at companies ranging from Chesapeake Energy to Boston Scientific into similarly embarrassing emergency sales.

The difference at Green Mountain is that its share price decline was so rapid that it caught Stiller and Davis napping. They were forced to unload 5.5 million shares – with Stiller accounting for nine-tenths of that – to pay their lenders while the post-earnings ban on insider stock sales was still in force.

May 3, 2012
via Breakingviews

Dependence on Facebook spreads beyond its users

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By Robert Cyran The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Dependence on Facebook spreads far and deep. It’s not just social networking junkies that have grown reliant on Mark Zuckerberg’s website creation, which on Thursday filed a new version of the prospectus for its impending initial public offering. Businesses such as online gamer Zynga have been created on its back. Bankers are pegging their careers on floating the firm. And the state of California needs the IPO to help close its yawning budget gap.

It’s not too strong to use the term addiction when talking about the type of relationship many Facebook users have with the site. Everyone has a friend who posts compulsively or has heard someone brag about quitting, only to relapse. The data tell the same story. The average user spends more than six hours a month on the site, according to ComScore.

This interaction has provided fertile soil for others. Big advertisers are shifting their advertising to Facebook, as its ballooning revenue shows. And an ecosystem of other firms has grown up around the social network. Online gaming prodigy Zynga – worth about $6 billion – has been trying to wean itself off Facebook. But it generated 94 percent of its revenue off the site in the fourth quarter of 2011. A slew of smaller firms make apps for users. They get a ready-made audience but cough up a chunk of sales made on the site and are beholden to Facebook’s whims.

Even firms on the other side of the country are relying on Facebook. New stock sales are a lucrative Wall Street niche. True, the social network’s heft means it will pay less than the typical 7 percent underwriting fee. But even a fraction of that is nothing to sniff at when a company is raising $5.7 billion from the sale of new stock at the midpoint of the indicated range, and existing owners are selling almost as much again of their shares. And the prestige of taking Facebook public could pay dividends for years as banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs pitch their services to other companies considering IPOs.

Nobody needs Facebook like California, though. The deal could net the state $2.5 billion in income tax receipts over the next five years, according to Sacramento. That’s enough to make a noticeable dent in its projected $9 billion deficit for this year. Moreover, numerous small businesses have grown up in Facebook’s Silicon Valley shadow. These high-salaried jobs – and the associated taxes – are good news for California’s finances. Facebook’s debut is more than Zuckerberg’s day in the sun.

Apr 30, 2012

Microsoft gives Barnes & Noble a big brother lift

By Robert Cyran

NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) – Microsoft (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) has given Barnes & Noble (BKS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) a big brother lift. The bookseller’s Nook e-book reader ambitions looked a day late and many dollars short. Microsoft’s $300 million injection changes that and is more than a one-time hand up.

Barnes & Noble said in January that it might separate its fast-growing Nook business from its ailing bricks-and-mortar stores. Figuring out how to do the split wasn’t straightforward, however. The online division, which bears the cost of developing the Nook, lost $102 million last quarter. Moreover, e-reader sales are heavily promoted in stores.

The new agreement with software giant Microsoft carves a trail. The software giant gets a 17.6 percent stake in the company’s Nook and college business units, valuing that part of Barnes & Noble at $1.7 billion. The book retailer’s entire market capitalization before the deal was unveiled was less than half this figure.

The Nook is gaining customers and now has almost 30 percent of the e-book market. Microsoft’s cash, and revenue guarantees for several years, provide the financial resources to go additional rounds against rivals like Amazon (AMZN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Apple (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research). But Barnes & Noble’s new big brother is also going to put the Nook app on devices running its newest operating system, Windows 8, which is due out later this year. That’s a big potential boost.

It’s no surprise Barnes & Noble’s shares popped more than 60 percent on the news. But it’s worth noting the whole company’s value, even after adding back $100 million of long-term debt, is still below the valuation implied by Microsoft’s investment in part of it.

One worry is competitive, even with extra cash in Barnes & Noble’s pocket. Apple and Amazon have far more, as well as formidable market clout in e-readers and e-books. Apple is focused on the textbook market, too. On the technological front, Barnes & Noble could face pressure to risk switching the Nook from Google’s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Android operating system to Microsoft’s. And the declining high-street store business will continue to dwindle, to the sadness of fans of real bookstores.

Apr 24, 2012
via Breakingviews

It’s too soon to be doubting Apple

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By Robert Cyran

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

It’s too soon to be doubting Apple. Fears over a slowing U.S. smartphone market and chip problems sent investors scurrying in April, when the company’s shares tumbled by over 10 percent. But the iPad maker smashed expectations yet again, almost doubling profit in the latest quarter. The trends powering Apple – China, rising margins and the halo effect – still have legs.

Two events drove the recent selloff. First, supplier Qualcomm warned it was having problems producing enough of its most advanced chips. Second, sales of iPhones at Verizon Wireless and AT&T were less than analysts had been expecting. That led to the idea the U.S. market for advanced cellphones was inching to maturation, a development that could lead to operators slashing the rich subsidies that benefit Apple.

The panic that lopped off nearly $80 billion from Apple’s market value, before a 7 percent recovery after the market closed on Tuesday, seemed overblown from the start. It doesn’t use Qualcomm chips yet. It may put them in the next iPhone, but that means there are still several months to fix the shortage. Moreover, Apple’s size and importance mean it is first in line for production. As for smartphones, it’s probably too early to worry about subsidies. An operator that can’t offer a competitively priced iPhone will bleed customers.

More importantly, Apple’s results show very little has changed about its growth trajectory. Demand is rocketing in China, where iPhone sales grew five-fold. More corporate users are trying out Apple’s gadgets. IPhone and iPad users are still converting into Mac users. Computer sales grew 7 percent, faster than the market as a whole. Gross margin is rising – now at 47 percent – an indication of Apple’s astonishing pricing power. As a result, the company generated another $14 billion in cash in the quarter, almost as much as it promised to return to shareholders this year.

Chief Executive Tim Cook seems to have settled into Apple’s sandbagging habit, saying the past quarter was extraordinary, but the current one could be tougher. Hard times will eventually descend on Apple’s 1 Infinite Loop headquarters, but there’s little reason to suspect it will be any time soon. With the shares still trading at a mere 13.5 times estimated earnings, investors should keep the faith.

Apr 16, 2012
via Breakingviews

3D printing deal enhances sector depth illusion

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By Robert Cyran The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Making physical items from digital files is a hot technology – maybe too hot if the market reaction to the acquisition of privately held Objet by Stratasys is any guide. Despite few synergies and an odd poison pill, the buyer’s shares rose nearly 25 percent, mainly on potential revenue synergies. But the future isn’t quite here yet.

A 3D printer takes digital blueprints or scans and recreates them one very thin layer at a time. The process is already quickly encroaching in product areas like replacement teeth and prototypes for new goods. That explains why the top lines of both Minneapolis-based Stratasys and the Israeli Objet are growing faster than 25 percent. But it’s the idea of upending the field of manufacturing to create custom items one at a time without having to worry about shipping costs that makes such technology truly exciting.

Stratasys, and its chunky acquisition, make it the biggest and most attractive way for investors to play the sector. The $600 million price seems fair. Objet accounted for 43 percent of the combined company’s sales last year and a roughly similar amount of income, and will wind up with 45 percent of the combined equity. Moreover, management reckons it can slash up to $8 million in costs and up to $4 million in taxes annually. Those are worth about $75 million to shareholders today.

That doesn’t explain the nearly $180 million increase in the market value of Stratasys following the announcement. Investors seem to think uniting the knowledge of working with different materials and strengths in separate areas – for example, Objet in medical devices and Stratasys in manufacturing prototypes – will make the sum worth considerably more than the parts.

That perception could be distorted. There are many competitors in this fast-growing field, and new ones are springing up. Even Stratasys management didn’t seem to expect the reaction. The company enacted a temporary poison pill to ensure activist investors couldn’t blow up the deal, even though Stratasys was already trading at a heady 30 times estimated 2012 earnings. The growth of 3D manufacturing is no illusion but the market appears to be enhancing the reality.