Nouriel Roubini is peeved by reports that suggest he’s “improved” his outlook for the U.S. economy. Bloomberg has been leading with the following all afternoon/evening: U.S. stocks, oil advance after Roubini says recession will end this year
U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day, the longest streak in six weeks, as economist Nouriel Roubini said the worst of the financial crisis is over and reiterated that the recession may end this year….
“The optimism that people are starting to embrace is that the recession may be months away from ending,” said David Goerz…chief investment officer at Highmark Capital Management…. “Even the most bearish forecasters are starting to capitulate.”
“Capitulate?” Whoa there champ. Back the bus up. (Roubini press release)
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.
“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end….
I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year. On one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation), thus leading to a crowding out of private demand.
While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector. Now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.
Roubini is rather smitten with his Vs, Us, and Ws. It’s kind of funny. But he’s dead on with his crisp description of Bernanke’s conundrum.

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Last week was a horrible whipsaw for a lot of traders as many technical patterns failed. Too many traders and investors were negative and this rally is not only getting buyers but a lot of short covering.
http://goldstocktrades.wordpress.com/200 9/07/15/head-and-shoulders-failure-cover -all-shorts/
- Posted by goldstocktrades.comDr. Roubini is bang on with his assessment about public debt. The CNBC crowd was quick to jump on his slip of the tongue, and then “dismissed” his correction. Near sited Bulls are like that.
- Posted by Harold