Be wary of the gold trade…
Looking out a few years, I’m as bearish as anyone, I admit. But I’m a little worried that suckers could get caught in this gold rally. A hedge-funder I spoke with at the Value Investing Congress said half of the sessions were devoted to doomsday scenarios, precious metals, etc. Today there was a keynote from Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Mgmt. Fully 70% of his assets under management are in precious metals, silver and gold.
But he’s been in the trade for 10 years. And Einhorn built up his gold position long before it leaped past $1000.
While I believe that gold is a good insurance policy to hedge sovereign risk, I think it could be some time before that thesis really plays out, before we max out the national credit card as it were. In the meantime, gold’s price could be highly volatile.
Right now, I suspect we could be seeing a lot of herding into gold as retail investors and other latecomers pile into the trade.
Folks inclined to jump into gold should be very careful here.
(As always: don’t make any buy/sell decisions based on anything you read in this space, nor construe anything written here as investment advice. You don’t want to anyway….I’m a shitty market-timer.)