Hog Wild for a Buyout?
Cross-posted from today’s NYT.
Could Henry Kravis handle a hog? Harley-Davidsonâ€™s shares revved up this week on talk of a leveraged buyout, and Mr. Kravisâ€™ firm, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, was one name mentioned. The iconic motorcycle maker can absorb plenty more debt, but the price tag and the cyclical nature of the business mean a deal would be no easy ride.
Harley has roared back to life. At around $28 apiece, Harleyâ€™s shares are more than triple their recession low, including Tuesdayâ€™s 6 percent bounce. Figure any deal would require a premium of at least 30 percent, and the implied equity valuation would be about $8.5 billion.
The company is expected by analysts to generate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $950 million in 2011. Strip out Harleyâ€™s financing arm for simplicity and adjust for its $1.7 billion of cash, and that price tag would peg its enterprise value at a little more than 5.8 times EBITDA.* Rich, yes, but not outrageous.
Of course, any Harley buyer would scrutinize the financial services unit, which is used to extend credit to the Milwaukee manufacturerâ€™s customers. It had $5.1 billion of receivables at the end of last year, and heavy borrowing at the parent company would risk trashing the finance armâ€™s ability to fund itself.
But with careful structuring, there seems to be room to gear up. Only $600 million of Harleyâ€™s $5.7 billion of debt relates to the manufacturing part of the business, according to Wells Fargo estimates. For leveraged buyouts, depending on the deal, banks are starting to stretch to debt multiples of 5.5 times EBITDA.
Putting such high leverage on a business as cyclical as Harley’s could turn it into the next Simmons, yet banks are slowly but surely loosening underwriting standards for buyouts. Anyway, at that multiple, KKR or another private equity buyer could borrow some $4.6 billion, meaning they’d need to throw in about $3.9 billion of equity or 46 percent of the total price — a big but feasible sum.
This back-of-the-envelope scenario suggests any buyout wouldÂ run close to the limits. But the idea of Mr. Kravis or another buyout baron cruising off with Harley isnâ€™t entirely hog-wild. But just because a deal can be done doesn’t mean it should be.
*The presence of Harley’s finance company means the valuation isn’t straightfoward. Multiple analysts told me that, from a buyout shop’s perspective, you’d ignore the finance company debt (=$5.1 billion of total debt at 12/31 of $5.7 billion) as it’s backed by receivables. So we have market cap = $6.6 billion, debt = $600 million, cash = $1.7 billion….EV (6.6 + .6 – 1.7) = $5.5 billion, or 5.8x ’11 consensus EBITDA of $950 million.