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Rolfe Winkler

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Archive for the ‘credit default swaps’ Category

July 17th, 2009

CreditSights: CDS put recoveries under pressure

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

In a CreditSights report published today, analyst Atish Kakodkar notes that recoveries on defaulted debt are “proving to be extremely low” in this latest cycle (no link).  He blames…

  • lack of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing, which forces more debt workouts via straight Chapter 7 Liquidation instead of Chapter 11 Reorganization.
  • weak debt covenants, which allow busted debtors to operate longer than during previous cycles.  This means they burn through more cash before their creditors have a chance for recovery.
  • “empty creditors,” who’ve a bigger incentive to force borrowers into bankruptcy than to workout debts in a way that might keep companies operating.

So far in 2009 there have been 46 default auctions, 25 for senior unsecured CDS and 21 for LCDS.  That compares to 11 and 2 respectively for all of last year….

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July 7th, 2009

Felix’s bicycle…

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Over the weekend, Felix stole a bit of my thunder, arguing preemptively that insurance commissioners shouldn’t regulate CDS, that CDS aren’t insurance in the first place.  (A similar argument was made on Economics of Contempt.)  Personally, I like the idea of a little internecine warfare here at Reuters.  I think that means Felix and I are doing our jobs.  In fact, he makes some good points in his post, but his chief argument is fatally flawed.  I can’t let him get away with it.  (Oh, and I’ll explain the title of the post in a second)

Here’s Felix’s argument:

First, credit default swaps are not insurance, they’re swaps. A lot of journalists talk about them being “like an insurance contract” when they try to explain what they are, and that’s true, as far as it goes — they do share certain characteristics with insurance. But that doesn’t mean they are insurance. It doesn’t mean that some foolish law should be passed forcing buyers of protection to have an “insurable interest” in some underlying debt instrument, and it certainly doesn’t mean that all CDS should be regulated by some insurance commissioner somewhere.

Let’s be clear, I didn’t say CDS are “like” insurance.  I said they are insurance.  The fact that “insure” is the only verb capable of describing their function settles that argument pretty quickly.  The insurable interest argument, which is the same one made by Economics of Contempt, is totally circular.  Insurable interest isn’t a feature of insurance, it’s a feature of insurance law.  All that needs to happen to make the insurable interest doctrine apply to CDS is for legislators to pass a law requiring it, which is essentially what Assemblyman Morelle would like to do.

The question is whether that makes sense.  I argue it does.  The reason we require buyers of insurance to demonstrate an interest in the insured property is to eliminate incentives to destroy that property.

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July 6th, 2009

Regulate CDS as insurance

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

– Rolfe Winkler is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

By Rolfe Winkler

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - Credit default swaps nearly brought down the world financial system last fall when it was discovered that AIG Financial Products had written hundreds of billions of dollars worth of credit protection without setting aside sufficient reserves. Yet since then, pathetically little has been done to get this corner of the derivatives market under control. There’s a simple way to fix the problem. Regulate CDS as insurance. That could happen if some state insurance legislators get their way.

Treating these financial weapons of mass destruction as insurance rather than swaps would subject them to sensible regulation. But Wall Street is fighting the idea because it would hammer profits and, more importantly, force them to reduce leverage.

Are credit default swaps insurance? As with insurance contracts, the seller of credit protection promises to reimburse the buyer’s losses in case his creditor defaults. If that sounds like an insurance policy, that’s because it is.

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April 6th, 2008

Minsky…in brief

Posted by: Reuters Staff

In the latest CFA Institute Conference Proceedings, Paul McCulley’s article (“The Liquidity Conundrum”) has a superlatively readable discussion of economist Hyman Minsky’s work on financial instability. Minsky’s theory goes a long way toward explaining the housing bubble, in particular the creative mortgage products that blew it up.

Minsky’s core thesis is known as the “financial
instability hypothesis.” Translated very simply, the
hypothesis states that stability is inherently destabi-
lizing because stability leads to the extrapolation of
stability into infinity, which encourages more risk-
seeking financial structures, particularly with debt.
Therefore, the more stability a market has and the
longer it lasts, the more unstable the foundation of
the stability becomes. Stability is destabilizing
because it begets more unstable debt structures….. (more…)