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August 8th, 2009

Behind Freddie’s “profit,” rising NPAs

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Late yesterday Freddie Mac surprised markets by reporting a profit and by not requesting additional bailout money from Treasury.  Before we celebrate, however, let’s consider a few revealing footnotes from the company’s quarterly filing.  But first, some key financial ratios.

As you can see, non-performing assets are still rising quickly.  (Click table to enlarge in new window)

slide11

As for the filing footnotes, we see that Freddie’s profit line got a big assist from FASB’s new fair value accounting rules:

Q2:

… the company recognized $10.5 billion in total other-than-temporary impairments of AFS securities. Included in this amount were $2.2 billion of credit-related impairments recognized in earnings …. Also included in total other-than-temporary impairments were $8.3 billion of non-credit related impairments that were recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (AOCI).

Q1:

During the first quarter of 2009, prior to its … adoption of the new accounting standard, the company recorded $7.1 billion of security impairments on its AFS securities in earnings, reflecting both credit-related and non-credit-related impairments.

Overall, accounting changes increased equity $5.1 billion according to Freddie..  Higher equity equals higher net worth.  As long as the company maintains positive net worth, Treasury doesn’t have to provide more bailout funds.  Freddie’s total bailout to date, by the way, is $51.7 billion.

What FASB giveth, it can also taketh.  Revisions to other accounting rules will require Fred to bring off balance sheet assets back onto the balance sheet:

Upon the adoption of SFAS 166 and SFAS 167 [on 1/1/10], we will be required to consolidate [off balance sheet assets] in our financial statements, which could have a significant impact on our net worth. Such consolidation could also significantly increase our required level of capital under existing capital rules …

I doubt the significant impact is going to be positive.  And remember, whenever Freddie’s net worth goes negative, that triggers another bailout payment from Treasury.

As for any talk that Fan and Fred will be wound down over time, that’s certainly not in the near future.  You can see in the table above that the company’s portfolio of mortgages is not shrinking.*

—-

*Including non-Freddie securities, the total mortgage portfolio would have shrunk 0.3% Q2 vs. Q1.

August 8th, 2009

Beware the government’s job figures

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

In a phone conversation yesterday, John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics warned me not to read too much good news from the better-than-expected jobs figure.  The government’s seasonal adjustments aren’t, well, adjusting properly.  They’re still keying off “typical” fluctuations in employment.  But of course today’s economic climate is anything but typical.  Yesterday the official unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a percent to 9.4%, but according to Williams it should have ticked up a tenth of a percent to 9.6%.

There are big seasonal changes in employment that the Bureau of Labor Statistics corrects for in order to reduce the volatility of the unemployment rate.  For instance, each year employment spikes ahead of the holidays as companies add workers, and then drops as those workers are let go.

July usually sees a regular pattern of planned automobile production line shutdowns to accommodate retooling for the new model year, but recent disruptions to the auto industry have changed pattern this year. Without the usual pattern of shutdowns, the government’s computers nonetheless responded by creating the usual offsetting boost in jobs, not only in the auto industry, but in supporting industries as well. The auto industry itself was alone among durable goods manufacturing industries in showing a reported, seasonally-adjusted monthly gain in July, up by 28,000 jobs.

Besides bad seasonal adjustments, Williams has problems with the so-called “birth-death” model, which “adds a fairly consistent upside bias to payroll levels each year, currently averaging 76,000 jobs per month.”  The genesis of the birth-death model was after the early ’80s recession, when employment figures didn’t catch jobs being added by new small businesses.  However, when a company like Taylor Bean & Whitaker stops reporting its stats, say because all employees were fired en masse, BLS assumes the company is still in business.  (For how long, I’m not sure)  The bottom line is that, in recessions, you’re losing more jobs from failing businesses than you’re gaining from emerging ones.  Hence the upward bias of the model during recessions.

But according to Williams the biggest problem with the official unemployment rate—”U-3″ in BLS parlance—is that it excludes both the underemployed and workers who have become “discouraged” and stopped looking for work:

During the Clinton Administration, “discouraged workers” — those who had given up looking for a job because there were no jobs to be had — were redefined so as to be counted only if they had been “discouraged” for less than a year.  This time qualification defined away the long-term discouraged workers.

Add all the underemployed and the disappeared and you have Williams “alternate” measure, which pegs unemployment at 20.6%, not 9.4%.

For more of Williams work, I recommend a subscription to SGS.

And for more on the unemployment rate, check out this helpful post from EconomPic Data.

August 8th, 2009

Bank Failure Friday

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Looks like Corus will survive the night.  So far there have been three failures.

#70

  • Failed Bank:  First State Bank, Sarasota FL
  • Acquiring Bank:  Stearns Bank National Assoc., St. Could MN
  • Vitals: As of 5/31/09, assets of $463 million, deposits of $387 million
  • DIF Damage: $116 million

#71

  • Failed Bank:  Community National Bank of Sarasota County, Venice FL
  • Acquiring Bank:  Stearns Bank National Assoc., St. Could MN
  • Vitals: As of 6/30/09, assets of $97 million, deposits of $93 million
  • DIF Damage: $24 million

#72

  • Failed Bank:  Community First Bank, Prineville OR
  • Acquiring Bank:  Home Federal Bank, Nampa ID
  • Vitals: As of 7/5/09, assets of $209 million, deposits of $182 million
  • DIF Damage: $45 million

Also, in an 8-k filing with the SEC, Colonial released some details about FBI raids this week.  “Colonial is the target of a federal criminal investigation relating to the Company’s mortgage warehouse lending division and related alleged accounting irregularities.”  Also, the SEC subpoenaed documents related to loan loss reserve accounting.

August 7th, 2009

Fed: Stop the presses

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

On Thursday, the Bank of England said that it would run its printing press a bit faster while the European Central Bank hinted that theirs might slow down sooner than expected.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s printing press is running low on ink, and Ben Bernanke has his own choice to make: Buy a new cartridge or shut the thing down. He should shut it down.

In particular, I’m referring to the Fed chairman’s commitment to print $300 billion to buy Treasury bonds by the end of September.

So far the Fed has purchased $243 billion since the program began in March. He’s on schedule to hit the $300 billion mark next month, right on schedule. The question is whether he should buy more.  (Click table to enlarge in new window)

slide1

With some signs pointing to a recovery, the conventional wisdom is that the Fed can let the program expire. That’s right, but for the wrong reasons.

The problem with quantitative easing, and with all programs fiscal and monetary intended to artificially support asset prices, is that they badly distort markets, preventing them from grappling with the underlying problem of leverage.

They also send false signals to market participants that it’s safe to take risk.

Leverage is still at record highs. To take just one measure, according to the Fed’s first quarter flow of funds report, total credit market debt to GDP stood at 376 percent. (Click chart to enlarge in new window, ht Comstock Partners)

picture-1

We’ve run up more debt that we can possibly pay. As any overextended borrower can tell you, the way to deal with excessive debt is to pay it down, or declare bankruptcy.

But quantitative easing encourages people to take on more debt.

Take homes, for instance. Mortgage rates are tied to Treasury rates, which are held artificially low thanks to the Fed. Low mortgage rates lead to higher house prices and higher house prices provide collateral to take on more debt.

But when the Fed’s artificial support is removed, prices will continue their march downward and borrowers will find they can’t pay off their last loan.

Every time we hit a recession, the Fed’s solution is to hit the gas, encouraging folks to go deeper into debt. For a time, credit expansion provides the illusion of economic expansion. Until, that is, inflation fears force the Fed to hit the brakes.

We’re addicted to debt. But instead of trying to kick the habit, we invent ever more creative ways to find our next fix.

Once upon a time, low interest rates were enough. Not anymore. So the Fed devised a dangerous combination of zero interest rates and quantitative easing.

Before we were snorting the junk. Now we’re injecting it. And the high is causing market participants to take more dangerous risks than they should.

People jumping back into the housing market are in for a rude awakening as prices continue to fall and their equity evaporates. If house prices trend back up, it won’t be because people can pay more, it will be because credit markets have loosened up again and they can borrow more.

Then we’re back where we started, but with an even larger pile of unpayable debt.

The economy won’t be on a sound footing until debt levels fall, and that won’t happen as long as the Fed stands in the way. It should let its three quantitative easing programs expire on schedule, and make a firm commitment that they’re not coming back.

August 7th, 2009

Fannie gets another $11 billion bailout

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Al Yoon reporting on the ever-expanding bailout of Fannie Mae….  (Reuters)

Fannie Mae … on Thursday reported a $14.8 billion quarterly net loss …. [I]ts regulator requested $10.7 billion from the Treasury to erase a deficit in its net worth, bringing total draws under a senior preferred stock purchase program to $45.9 billion.

Fannie has now burned through a quarter of the $200 billion bailout commitment made by Treasury.  My colleague Agnes Crane has more, including details of how Fannie’s losses were drastically reduced by the new fair value accounting rules that went into effect earlier this year.

August 7th, 2009

Talking Buffett

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

August 6th, 2009

Lunchtime Links 8-6

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

More homeowners upside down on mortgages (CR)  According to a Deutsche Bank report published yesterday, 16 million homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.  And the figure will go to 25 million by 2011 as house prices keep falling.  These folks don’t actually own anything, since their home equity is negative.  What they own is a pile of debt that is owed to the bank, which itself owns ALL of the home’s value.  This is bad news for bank balance sheets, which will be seeing write-downs on bad loans for a while.

Board Meeting Handout (FASB)  This appears to be the outline of the new fair value rules FASB is kicking around internally.  Just to warn you, it’s pretty wonky.  Currently trying to make heads/tails of it in order to calculate potential impact on bank balance sheets.  If there are any accountants, analysts reading the blog please take a look and let me know your thoughts.

U.S. considers remaking mortgage giants (WaPo)  Plans aren’t fully formed, but the idea is to split Fannie/Freddie into good/bad banks, shoveling bad mortgages into the bad bank where the losses will be funded with tax dollars.  It’s early innings yet, but any proposal that doesn’t see the companies eventually privatized would be pretty unfortunate.

Killer app for clunkers spurs market (WSJ)  Clunkers have to be killed when they’re traded for cash.  Here’s how that’s done.

One dead in ear-cleaning salon attack (Reuters)

Paul Romer on “charter cities.”  Incubating development … (ht Kedrosky)

August 6th, 2009

Why the death of a lender matters

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Earlier this evening, Reuters’ Jon Stempel reported that Taylor, Bean & Whitaker has ceased lending.  That makes TBW #351 on the Mortgage Lender Implode-o-Meter.  Questions swirl about what happened.  One possibility seems to be that the company just couldn’t manage its own growth.  As other lenders disappeared and TBW’s FHA business exploded, it’s possible they just didn’t have sufficient internal controls to insure loans met FHA underwriting standards.  When the company failed to file its annual financials with the government, things started to unravel.

It’s not clear how problems at Colonial Bank may have impacted the situation.  TBW was basically dependent on Colonial for all its funding.  The company tried to buy Colonial, injecting $300m of capital in order to make the latter eligible for $550m of TARP funds.  That would have kept the gravy train going.  But the deal fell apart late last week when Colonial reported dismal results while issuing a going concern warning.

Why should you care?  Because TBW is pretty big.  It was the third largest originator of FHA mortgages in the market.  Recently the company was doing $100m-$150m of loans a day, according to a source.  It takes time for loan applications to be approved and funded.  45-60 days I’m told.

If TBW was doing, say, 500 home loans a day, as many as 30,000 transactions may be imperiled by the company’s failure.  A lot of paperwork will have to be re-filed, new appraisals will have to be ordered, etc.  The housing market won’t fall apart by any means, but this will certainly cause a fair amount of indigestion.  And a lot of mortgage brokers that were dependent on TBW to purchase the loans they originated are now in deep trouble.

BofA could be a big winner here.  Apparently they’re going to end up taking on TBW’s serving duties.

August 5th, 2009

Lunchtime Links 8-5

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

MUST READThe debt-inflation myth, debunked by UBS (Alphaville, ht Yves)  Tracy Alloway has a GREAT piece today debunking the idea that we can “inflate our way out of debt.”  As I’ve argued previously, this assumes debt doesn’t have to be rolled over.  But of course is does, especially when you’re operating with deficits as high as our own.  The consequence of higher inflation, then, is that lenders demand higher interest rates on new debt.  As legacy debt is inflated away, new debt issuance is MUCH more expensive.

Taylor Bean suspended from making FHA loans (WSJ)  Funny business going on at the nation’s third-largest FHA lender.  Taylor Bean was one of the two targets of the Neil Barofsky’s raids earlier this week.  The other was big bank Colonial.   Taylor is dependent on Colonial for its warehouse line of credit.  With Colonial is on the ropes, Taylor investors put together a quick $300m to keep them afloat, and make them eligible to receive government money.  This is just another way lenders are scamming taxpayers and the government to get bailout funding to support home loans.  Dirty business.  Read the last three paragraphs of this article.

New York seeks millions of back taxes from Lehman (NYT)  This article has some good detail regarding the bankruptcy process, but the actual news is old.  My colleague Matt Goldstein reported it June 29th.

Post office considers closings, consolidations (AP)  The headline number is 1,000 POs may be on the chopping block.  Seems big, but consider that there are nearly 33,000.  The post office has been struggling for years due to e-mail and, lately, onlinebillpay.  The PO wants to make adjustments to its pension plan and reduce mail delivery to five days per week.

Clunker-nomics (David Kotok)  It’s all been said, but Kotok says it rather articulately.

SEC memo says Guaranty Bank to be seized, not sold (GoingConcern, ht AK)  Teri Buhl has an OTS source that claims Guaranty will cost the deposit insurance fund “at least” $5.3 billion and, even more stunning, that it’s too late to find a buyer, that FDIC will be forced to wind them down.  I wonder if that’s actually going to happen, as a reader commented to me: “I can’t believe they can’t even find someone to take the branches and deposits.  Sure, they can wind down stupid Frontier Bank of Greely, Co with all of what, 3 branches or whatever, GFG is a much different story.  It’d have to be the largest wind down since the S/L problem.  It’d look terrible in the press, too.  I’d still guess they’ll strong arm someone into taking over the branches/non brokered deposits, even if the acquirer pays basically nothing.” Still, it’s a great story from Teri.  Lots to chew on for future bank failure Fridays…

Alumna sues college b/c she can’t land a job (CNN)  She wants a refund on $72,000 in tuition.

Marines ban Twitter, Facebook, MySpace (Wired)

Obama’s birthday cake delivery (BBC)  Sociologist Max Weber might have much to say about Obama’s charisma.  Me?  I’d prefer a guy who wasn’t afraid to say no once in awhile.  As in, no we can’t deliver more free lunches financed by government borrowing.

Finally the spleen gets some respect (NYT)  Scientists have finally discovered why we have a spleen: “The parallel in military terms is a standing army….You don’t want to have to recruit an entire fighting force from the ground up every time you need it.”

One person’s first experience with a store-bought pizza…aka “Pizza Fail”

pizzafail

August 4th, 2009

Buffett’s Betrayal

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

When I was 14, Warren Buffett wrote me a letter.

It was a response to one I’d sent him, pitching an investment idea.  For a kid interested in learning stocks, Buffett was a great role model.  His investing style — diligent security analysis, finding competent management, patience — was immediately appealing.

Buffett was kind enough to respond to my letter, thanking me for it and inviting me to his company’s annual meeting.  I was hooked.  Today, Buffett remains famous for investing The Right Way.  He even has a television cartoon in the works, which will groom the next generation of acolytes.

But it turns out much of the story is fiction.  A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess. Were it not for government bailouts, for which Buffett lobbied hard, many of his company’s stock holdings would have been wiped out.

Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money.  The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt.

To put that in perspective, 75 percent of the debt these companies have issued since late November has come with a federal guarantee. (Click chart to enlarge in new window)

buffett-bailout2

Without FDIC’s debt guarantee program, even impregnable Goldman would have collapsed.

And this excludes the emergency, opaque lending facilities from the Federal Reserve that also helped rescue the big banks. Without all these bailouts, the financial system would have been forced to recapitalize itself.

Banks that couldn’t finance their balance sheets would have sold toxic assets at market prices, and the losses would have wiped out their shareholder’s equity.  With $7 billion at stake, Buffett is one of the biggest of these shareholders.

He even traded the bailout, seeking morally hazardous profits in preferred stock and warrants of Goldman and GE because he had “confidence in Congress to do the right thing” — to rescue shareholders in too-big-to-fail financials from the losses that were rightfully theirs to absorb.

Keeping this in mind, I was struck by Buffett’s letter to Berkshire shareholders this year:

“Funders that have access to any sort of government guarantee — banks with FDIC-insured deposits, large entities with commercial paper now backed by the Federal Reserve, and others who are using imaginative methods (or lobbying skills) to come under the government’s umbrella — have money costs that are minimal,” he wrote.

“Conversely, highly-rated companies, such as Berkshire, are experiencing borrowing costs that … are at record levels. Moreover, funds are abundant for the government-guaranteed borrower but often scarce for others, no matter how creditworthy they may be.”

It takes remarkable chutzpah to lobby for bailouts, make trades seeking to profit from them, and then complain that those doing so put you at a disadvantage.

Elsewhere in his letter he laments “atrocious sales practices” in the financial industry, holding up Berkshire subsidiary Clayton Homes as a model of lending rectitude.

Conveniently, he neglects to mention Wells Fargo’s toxic book of home equity loans, American Express’ exploding charge-offs, GE Capital’s awful balance sheet, Bank of America’s disastrous acquisitions of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs’ reckless trading practices.

And what of Moody’s, the credit-rating agency that enabled lending excesses Buffett criticizes, and in which he’s held a major stake for years?  Recently Berkshire cut its stake to 16 percent from 20 percent.  Publicly, however, the Oracle of Omaha has been silent.

This is remarkably incongruous for the world’s most famous financial straight-shooter. Few have called him on it, though one notable exception was a good article by Charles Piller in the Sacramento Bee earlier this year.

Buffett didn’t respond to my email seeking a comment.

What saddens me is that Buffett is uniquely positioned to lobby for better public policy, but he’s chosen to spend his considerable political capital protecting his own holdings.

If we learn one lesson from this episode, it’s that banks should carry substantially more capital than may be necessary.  You would think Buffett would agree. He has always emphasized investing with a “margin of safety” — so why shouldn’t banks lend with one?

Yet he mocked Tim Geithner’s stress tests, which forced banks to replenish their capital. Why? Is it because his banks are drastically undercapitalized?  The more capital they’re forced to raise, the more his stake is diluted.

He points to Wells Fargo’s deposit funding model being more robust than investment banks’, but that’s no excuse for letting tangible equity dwindle to three percent of assets.  At that low level, the capital structure would have collapsed were it not for bailouts.

And by the way, the strength of Wells’ funding model is a result of FDIC insurance, among the government subsidies Buffett complains about in this year’s letter.

To me this feels like a betrayal.  There’s a reason he’s Warren Buffett and not, say, Carl Icahn.

As Roger Lowenstein wrote in his 1995 biography of Buffett, “Wall Street’s modern financiers got rich by exploiting their control of the public’s money … Buffett shunned this game … In effect, he rediscovered the art of pure capitalism — a cold-blooded sport, but a fair one.”

But there’s nothing fair about Buffett getting a bailout, about exploiting the taxpaying public for his own gain.  The naïve 14-year-olds among us thought he was better than this.

What would Ben Graham say?

August 4th, 2009

Sheila Bair not cowed by Geithner tantrum, criticizes Obama

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Last week Tim Geithner dropped multiple F-bombs in a meeting with regulators unenthusiastic about his plan to concentrate oversight of the financial system at the Fed.  Sheila Bair was one of his targets, but today she held her ground.  In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this morning, she had this to say about concentrating regulatory power at the Fed:

we do not see merit or wisdom in consolidating federal supervision of national and state banking charters into a single regulator for the simple reason that the ability to choose between federal and state regulatory regimes played no significant role in the current crisis.

One of the important causes of the current financial difficulties was the exploitation of the regulatory gaps that existed between banks and the non-bank shadow financial system, and the virtual non-existence of regulation of over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts. These gaps permitted lightly regulated or, in some cases, unregulated financial firms to engage in highly risky practices and offer toxic derivatives and other products that eventually infected the financial system…

She hits back at the administration pretty hard:

In light of these significant [regulatory] failings, it is difficult to see why so much effort should be expended to create a single regulator when political capital could be better spent on more important and fundamental issues which brought about the current crisis and the economic harm it has done.

She makes great points throughout.

But we can’t let Sheila and FDIC off too easy, though.  They’ve been undercharging for deposit insurance for years, which meant they didn’t have the resources necessary to resolve too-big-to-fail financials when they collapsed last fall.  Instead FDIC was forced to delay the reckoning, offering big banks a federal guarantee for their debts.

But at least Bair recognizes the terrible precedent that has been set, and wants to move decisively to reverse it.

John Dugan over at OCC also questions the wisdom of concentrating too much power at the Fed, though he and Sheila clearly have their disagreements when it comes to the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency.  She’s a big fan of existing proposals.  He’s got qualms with it.

Incidentally, I agree with my colleague Matt Goldstein that it’s good to see Tim Geithner get mad for a change.  A little anger is certainly appropriate.  I also agree with him that Geithner’s anger seems misdirected.

August 4th, 2009

Pending Home Sales continue upward

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

A little bit of good news from NAR for a Tuesday.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7.  The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.

But read this with a grain of salt.  The private credit system is still broken; home sales are dependent on government financing.

August 3rd, 2009

Evening Links 8-3

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

(send links, pics, vids to optionarmageddon at gmail)

U.S. raids Colonial bank office in Florida, serving “TARP-related” warrants (Reuters)  Cheers for kicking butt and taking names.  As the special inspector general for TARP, Neil Barofsky has broad authority, including subpoena power and the right to carry a handgun.  This profile in the WSJ quotes critics that say he’s got too much Eliot in him, Ness or Spitzer, “over-stepping” his bounds or other such nonsense.  With the vast legal apparatus that rich banksters are able to hide behind, we need a guy who’s not afraid to offend delicate sensibilities.

Hot Waitress Economic Index (NY Mag)

Wall Street profits from trades with Fed (FT)  Makes a great point.  Too bad there aren’t any numbers here. But then the Fed won’t make that possible; it won’t let anyone audit its books.

Boom and Bust will be with us for some time (FT, via Kedrosky)  The former SocGen strategy duo (Montier recently left) take on the adaptive markets hypothesis.  Keeping economists honest!

Cops: Wife, three other women torture husband (Chicago Breaking News)  “Torture” is probably too strong a word.  Then again…

10 years ago, an omen no one saw (NYT)

Trump cuts price on Park Ave. penthouse by 40% (NY Post)  WSJ also had a good page 1 story this morning on the problems at the high end of the housing market.  So much for the top of the market being the last to decline and the first to recover…

Japanese couple turns down free trip to Rome, says would be waste of Italian taxpayers’ money (abc.net.au)

Barney’s illegitimate child? (imgur)  I can’t believe I never noticed the resemblance.

Cosmoplitan (incredimazing)

August 3rd, 2009

Daily Show: Home Crisis Investigation

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

Tim Geithner can’t sell his house. Wait, he raised the price? WTF!?!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Home Crisis Investigation
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor Joke of the Day

If you have trouble playing the video, try it here.

August 3rd, 2009

George Magnus’ Opus

Posted by: Rolfe Winkler

For those convinced the economy is getting back on track (the S&P got back above 1,000 today!), I offer a cold shower courtesy of George Magnus, Senior Economic Adviser at UBS.  He pens a good op-ed in today’s London Times that warns folks to be wary of the emerging “recovery.”

…we should not be seduced into thinking that [the latest green shoots] comprise the gateway to a new expansion, because this “recovery” is not yet a match for the four horsemen of: financial instability; loss of leverage; retiring baby boomers and financial exit strategies.

Whatever financial stability we’ve achieved of late is thanks only to government support.  Remove it and the system would be exposed as totally unstable.  As for de-leveraging, it will take many years for the household and banking sectors to repair their balance sheet.  This means increased saving and less consumption for some time.  Both are good things of course, but with them comes less economic activity as measured by GDP.

The other big problem for economic activity going forward is demography.  As baby boomers retire, and the working population shrinks, the drag on growth will be substantial.

As the baby boomers — roughly 20-25 per cent of the population in most advanced nations — retire and swell the over-65 segment of the population, the labour supply will fall, or rise only modestly, because of low or declining birth rates. The working age population will grow slowly in the US and the UK, but in most of Europe it is starting to decline now. In Japan, this has been happening for almost a decade already.

In the absence of policy changes, growth will be reduced, and the rise in old age dependency will generate significant financial stress. The main policy shift should be to strengthen labour input and output through employment-creating infrastructure programmes, raising the participation of over 55s and women in the labour force, the pursuit of phased retirement and flexible working practices, and the provision of lifelong learning programmes.

Getting older workers to stay in the workforce will be crucial for our economic future.  Among other issues, the only way to put Social Security and Medicare on sound footing is to boost the retirement age well into the 70s.

There’s much more in the piece.