In an empty, snow-covered parking lot about a mile outside of the center of the gathering of the world’s elite, the Occupy Davos activists have set up a small camp of igloos and yurts. There are no badges or panels at this gathering – most of the day’s work is focused on building (and re-building) the camp’s series of tunnels and igloos. The handful of activists at the camp on Tuesday were upbeat, but realistic about their chances of changing the World Economic Forum’s agenda.

The Occupy Davos movement, members said, had no real coordination with the protests going on in the U.S., though a few activists came from other areas of Europe and the U.S. The group’s organizers expected 60 or so activists to join the group later in the week when the World Economic Forum kicks off. For its part, the WEF has allowed the protesters to stay on site, and even brought in supplies.

We spoke with the Occupy Davos activists about what brought them here, what they hope to achieve – and whether anyone at the glittering WEF gathering is listening.

Ryan McCarthy talks to Occupy WEF’s Florian Sieber.

Occupy’s Laurent Moeri tells Reuters why he thinks the WEF is a “great hypocrisy”.

Occupy protester Savino (surname withheld) talks to Reuters about his reasons for coming to Davos.

The alarm bells have been ringing in the UK since the surprise contraction in Q4 GDP 2010.  The Bank of England (BoE) remains in limbo between the ECB, who recently hiked despite their problems with sovereign debt and the US, where quantitative easing remains in force until at least June. The release of the preliminary Q1 GDP on the 27 April could be instrumental in determining not just how the currency and financial markets perform, but in directing measures the BoE and coalition government may have to take. Since the surprise contraction in GDP, the BoE has been forced to sit on its hands and watch inflation continue to increase while reiterating its belief that this is just a temporary phase. There is a real dilemma in the UK that has split the market; will the UK face the daunting reality of a double dip recession?

Data that has recently been released has done little to reassure the markets; the British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales for the month of March tumbled at their fastest pace in 6 years as spending cuts, tax rises and high unemployment took their toll on consumer confidence. As a result, Sterling is very vulnerable to the outcome of the UK GDP figure later this month. This means businesses that import and export are exposed to a great deal of risk when protecting their budgeted rates in foreign exchange for the year.

If the UK does enter a double dip recession on the 27 April, the value of Sterling is likely to fall. Consumer confidence is already near record lows and will plummet further if we see the inevitable media frenzy that would accompany the news of a double dip. The result could be a decline in retail sales and higher unemployment, two factors that will not be greeted with open arms by UK businesses. The BoE’s task of tackling inflation will become a steeper uphill slog as the justification of an interest rate hike would become difficult. Various rating agencies have already warned that weaker growth could jeopardise the UK’s prized triple AAA rating, a downgrade can only have negative effects. Finally, let’s not rule out the possibility of further quantitative easing down track that would naturally weaken the Pound.  All of this uncertainty would weaken Sterling, and hurt businesses that import goods and raw materials as a result. However, companies that are manufacturing goods for the export market may embrace the weakness in the currency as the demand for British made goods become more appealing.

If the UK dodges the silver bullet and avoids the double dip recession, hope and confidence may start to be restored. The net effect should result in a stronger currency and strengthen the coalition government’s position. The main price driver this year has been interest rate expectations. A return to growth would give the BoE more scope to start tackling the mounting inflationary pressures by increasing interest rates. In this benign scenario it is more than likely that the nation’s AAA credit rating will be preserved thereby enticing business and foreign direct investment while allowing the Coalition Government to continue to plough on with their austerity plans to improve the nation’s finances.

The net effect will be positive for Sterling. The rising pound would assist in tackling some of the imported inflation. For those who are importing this would be a timely boost and a noticeable help in pushing prices lower. Conversely businesses that are manufacturing goods for export would see their products become less competitive in price terms.

The question that business owners need to ask themselves is, can they afford to take the gamble on Q1 GDP? With so much riding on the outcome of this figure, budget levels should be scrutinised to assess the potential impact a sharp move in the currency may have on their bottom line. Despite all the celebrations surrounding the Royal Wedding the Q1 GDP should not get lost under the piles of bunting.

‘Ireland: Re-shaping the Regulatory and Banking System’ will be hosted by Reuters’ Jodie Ginsberg, UK and Ireland Editor, and will be streamed live to the Reuters UK website as part of our rolling coverage from 0830 BST.

We’re also giving you the chance to submit a question to be put to Elderfield during the Newsmaker. If you have a question on Ireland’s banking and regulatory set-up, then you can leave it as a comment on this page, via our Twitter feed using the hashtag #askelderfield or on our Facebook page.

The Chancellor said corporation tax would be cut by two percentage points to 26 percent from April, rather than by just the one point originally planned. A levy on banks would be increased to help pay for it.

Osborne also announced a surprise cut in fuel duty, while slapping higher charges on oil and gas production which he said would raise 2 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the government will offer loans to help first-time buyers get on the property ladder.

Osborne called it a “Budget for growth and jobs.” Do you agree? Take part in our poll below or leave a comment on this page.
[poll id="16"]

In this first video, Spelman talks about key growth trends and the reasons behind the sense of ‘cautious optimism’ at Davos 2011.

“If 2010 was really about stability in the global economy, I think 2011 is all about the pace of global recovery,” he says.

“Optimism here is to a certain extent trumping pessimism. But the key question is, what’s this optimism based on?”

In this next video, Spelman analyses the underlying mood of confidence at Davos and how to balance the focus on growth and innovation with cost and complexity.

“No-one wants to take hold of more growth opportunities whilst at the same time fundamentally increasing the cost space. What we’re beginning to see is a new era of both growth but increased competition,” he says.

In this final clip, Spelman discusses the role of emerging markets and how this change should be managed.
He says: “The developed world is probably growing at two percent on average in 2011 whereas most of the emerging markets will be at 6 percent. So the emerging markets are becoming more powerful, but there is also a question of interconnectedness and this is where the politics comes in.”

I caught up with one of them, 18-year-old Trevor Dougherty, who wrote this post for us prior to the start of this year’s Davos,  to hear how his first WEF annual meeting is going. We will hopefully hear from the other four ‘changemakers’ before the end of the conference.

]]> http://blogs.reuters.com/ross-chainey/2011/01/27/talking-with-davos-youth-all-five-of-them/feed/ 0 http://blogs.reuters.com/davos/2011/01/27/tablets-take-over-one-davos-at-a-time/ http://blogs.reuters.com/ross-chainey/2011/01/27/tablets-take-over-the-world-one-davos-at-a-time/#comments Thu, 27 Jan 2011 11:48:01 +0000 Ross Chainey http://blogs.reuters.com/ross-chainey/2011/01/27/tablets-take-over-the-world-one-davos-at-a-time/ This time last year, the online team here in Davos broke off from its coverage of the WEF for an hour or so to follow another Reuters live event – the unveiling of Apple’s iPad.

Back then, there were many gaps in our knowledge of what the iPad could do. We didn’t even know what it would be called.

What a difference a year makes. Now the device, and other tablet computers, is on show everywhere, especially among the gathering of the global elite in Davos. Reuters technology correspondent Kenneth Li wrote yesterday in this article that: “Those discussing the “Shared Norms for the New Reality” in Davos this week need only look around them to see one such ‘reality’: low-cost smart devices are sweeping away clunky old computers throughout the political and business world.”

Kenneth also tweeted this yesterday: “Davos is ugly with iPads. One CEO tried to hide his from me. Shameful!”

One Davos participant not hiding his tablet from view is Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (an avid user of Twitter). Here’s a great picture of him going over the text of his opening address to this year’s WEF meeting in Davos, delivered yesterday evening.

(Picture taken January 26, 2011. REUTERS/Dmitry Astakhov/RIA Novosti/Kremlin)

Davos Today with Chrystia Freeland will feature many of the biggest names at Davos in discussion with Reuter’s Global Editor-at-Large. Topics range from China, India and the U.S. to Trust in Institutions, the Future of Finance and Failed States.

The guest list includes Larry Summers, Harvard professor and former U.S. Secretary, Bob Zoellick, President of the World Bank and Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University.

Chrystia will have her questions ready for these giants of the financial world — but what would you ask them? We would like you to send us your questions for Summers, Zoellick and Roubini on anything related to the themes being discussed at Davos 2011.

There are a number of ways you can send in your questions: make a comment on this article or over on our live coverage page; get it to us on Twitter replying to @reuters_davos; or via Chrystia’s official Facebook page.