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Mar 4, 2015

Analysis – For first time in years, euro economy starts surprising on upside

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone economy is sprouting more green shoots than anticipated just as the European Central Bank fires up a money printing programme worth more than 1 trillion euros.

An analysis of Reuters polls shows more than half the most important economic reports since the start of the year, as well as data across the bloc’s four largest economies, have beaten the consensus forecast and many have topped the highest prediction.

Mar 4, 2015

For first time in years, euro economy starts surprising on upside

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone economy is sprouting more green shoots than anticipated just as the European Central Bank fires up a money printing program worth more than 1 trillion euros.

An analysis of Reuters polls shows more than half the most important economic reports since the start of the year, as well as data across the bloc’s four largest economies, have beaten the consensus forecast and many have topped the highest prediction.

Feb 22, 2015

Weekahead: Fed rate rise timing back in the spotlight

LONDON (Reuters) – Greece’s struggles with its euro zone creditors may have grabbed much of the world’s attention, but U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is likely to reclaim the spotlight this week with testimony on a long-anticipated shift in policy.

If the Fed sticks to mid-year for its first interest rate rise in a decade, it will be perceived as a reflection of the world economy’s growing resilience.

Feb 22, 2015

Fed rate rise timing back in the spotlight

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Greece’s struggles with its euro
zone creditors may have grabbed much of the world’s attention,
but U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is likely to reclaim
the spotlight this week with testimony on a long-anticipated
shift in policy.

If the Fed sticks to mid-year for its first interest rate
rise in a decade, it will be perceived as a reflection of the
world economy’s growing resilience.

Dec 5, 2014
via MacroScope

The great flatline of wage expectations

It’s not just wages around the industrialised world that are flatlining. So are expectations.

While there is considerable change from month to month on U.S. pay statistics, what has remained virtually constant throughout the past decade is a weak rate of pay growth that has not managed to keep pace with inflation.

Nov 25, 2014

British house price boom fading but no price falls expected – Reuters Poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The latest British property boom is fading, more than a year after it got a boost from a stimulus programme aimed at first-time buyers, although prices are still expected to outpace inflation in coming years.

The latest Reuters poll of property market analysts also forecasts an end to London’s housing boom. London prices rocketed 25 percent in recent years but are expected to slow to near the national rate of around 4 percent in coming years.

Nov 25, 2014
via MacroScope

Housing markets in U.S., UK, Canada set to cool even if rates stay low for longer

Photo

Even as the expected date for an eventual interest rate rise in the U.S., Britain and Canada keeps getting pushed further into the future, the outlook for residential housing markets in these countries is also starting to cool.

While all three of these property markets have been following trajectories of their own since the financial crisis hammered the industrialised world after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and brought about zero, or near-zero, interest rates soon afterward, they all are expected to generate less lofty price rises, according to the latest round of Reuters Polls.

Nov 25, 2014

British house price boom fading but no price falls expected

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) – The latest British property boom
is fading, more than a year after it got a boost from a stimulus
programme aimed at first-time buyers, although prices are still
expected to outpace inflation in coming years.

The latest Reuters poll of property market analysts also
forecasts an end to London’s housing boom. London prices
rocketed 25 percent in recent years but are expected to slow to
near the national rate of around 4 percent in coming years.

Nov 24, 2014
via MacroScope

Euro zone private loan data still looking more like groan data

It’s been more than two years since euro zone banks increased net lending to private businesses. And it’s been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank launched a new plan to turn that situation around.

Everyone is still waiting for results.

 

The latest Reuters Poll forecasts another 1 percent contraction in net lending to the private sector versus a year ago, only a fractionally slower rate of decline than the 1.2 percent fall reported in the month before. There was barely any variance in opinion either, with a few expecting a 1.1 percent decline. Only eight economists out of a sample of more than 40 or so who regularly forecast euro zone economic indicators even had a view.

Nov 23, 2014

Global Economy Weekahead – Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world

LONDON (Reuters) – European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has moved closer to launching sovereign debt purchases and data this week will show just how dangerously low inflation has fallen in the $13 trillion euro zone economy.

A sickly Europe has held back global economic growth for years, and now it is contributing significantly to powerful forces already dragging down inflation across the globe.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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