Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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Aug 28, 2014
via MacroScope

The ECB keeps putting up the cash, but where’s the lending?

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For the European Central Bank, a lot is riding on euro zone banks ramping up lending to the private sector. Unfortunately, after a very long time, lending still is not growing. It fell 1.6 percent on a year ago in July.

Struggling with a dangerously low inflation rate that is expected to dip even further to 0.3 percent in August, the ECB placed a big bet back in June that hundreds of billions of euros more in cash for banks in further liquidity auctions in October and December this year would help turn the situation around.

Aug 20, 2014
via MacroScope

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

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For all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Not only that, but surprise news that two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted this month to hike Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent does not seem to have shaken the view that it will be early next year before rates go up.

Jul 31, 2014
via MacroScope

Another month, another downside surprise on euro zone inflation

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Nobody except a born pessimist ever expects a bad situation to get incrementally worse.

But the relentless downward trajectory of inflation in the euro zone has got plenty of economists sounding unconvinced that the situation will turn around any time soon.

Jul 18, 2014

Global growth prospects dim even as asset prices fly higher

By Ross Finley and Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – Global growth prospects have dimmed slightly, with the United States and Britain leading industrialised economies that are not generating much inflation even after years of aggressive monetary stimulus, Reuters polls found.

While China’s economic growth broadly stabilised in the latest quarter, the threat of a sharp correction in its overextended property market and any aftershocks remains the biggest danger for the world economy.

Jul 17, 2014

Global growth prospects dim even as asset prices fly higher: Reuters poll

By Ross Finley and Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – Global growth prospects have dimmed slightly, with the United States and Britain leading industrialized economies that are not generating much inflation even after years of aggressive monetary stimulus, Reuters polls found.

While China’s economic growth broadly stabilized in the latest quarter, the threat of a sharp correction in its overextended property market and any aftershocks remains the biggest danger for the world economy.

Jul 16, 2014
via MacroScope

Tight consensus on China’s growth rate not reflecting real range of opinion

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China’s economy, even to a non-specialist given a few minutes to stop and think, is clearly extremely difficult to measure.

When your population is 1.4 billion and you are in the midst of an unprecedented government and credit-fuelled expansion in infrastructure on your way to developed economy status, there are plenty of things that may get overlooked.

Jul 15, 2014
via MacroScope

Fed and BoE to markets: pay attention to pay

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It is more than a bit ironic that those paid the most to pay attention to incoming data aren’t paying enough attention to pay.

Both Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen have dropped many hints in speeches and public policy statements over the past several months that wage inflation likely will play an important role in any decision to raise interest rates.

Jul 7, 2014
via MacroScope

U.S. hiring may be rebounding, but wage growth is not

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The U.S. job market has finally turned a corner. What is remarkable is that it has taken so long.

Companies have finally begun taking on staff in consistently greater numbers, half a decade after the end of a deep recession brought on by one of the most punishing financial crises in history.

Jul 1, 2014
via MacroScope

Deflating euro zone inflation expectations

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The euro zone is not deflating, it’s just at risk of a too-prolonged period of low inflation, says European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

Judging by recent evidence, it might be very prolonged, which is bad news for an economy struggling to shift out of low gear.

Jun 17, 2014
via MacroScope

Weak UK inflation casts doubt on interest rate hike this year

 

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shocked markets last week, saying interest rates could rise sooner than expected.

At first glance, the latest UK inflation data suggest they might not.

Inflation has nearly halved to 1.5 percent in May from 2.9 percent last June. And wage inflation is much lower.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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