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Nov 25, 2014

British house price boom fading but no price falls expected – Reuters Poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The latest British property boom is fading, more than a year after it got a boost from a stimulus programme aimed at first-time buyers, although prices are still expected to outpace inflation in coming years.

The latest Reuters poll of property market analysts also forecasts an end to London’s housing boom. London prices rocketed 25 percent in recent years but are expected to slow to near the national rate of around 4 percent in coming years.

Nov 25, 2014
via MacroScope

Housing markets in U.S., UK, Canada set to cool even if rates stay low for longer

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Even as the expected date for an eventual interest rate rise in the U.S., Britain and Canada keeps getting pushed further into the future, the outlook for residential housing markets in these countries is also starting to cool.

While all three of these property markets have been following trajectories of their own since the financial crisis hammered the industrialised world after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and brought about zero, or near-zero, interest rates soon afterward, they all are expected to generate less lofty price rises, according to the latest round of Reuters Polls.

Nov 25, 2014

British house price boom fading but no price falls expected

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) – The latest British property boom
is fading, more than a year after it got a boost from a stimulus
programme aimed at first-time buyers, although prices are still
expected to outpace inflation in coming years.

The latest Reuters poll of property market analysts also
forecasts an end to London’s housing boom. London prices
rocketed 25 percent in recent years but are expected to slow to
near the national rate of around 4 percent in coming years.

Nov 24, 2014
via MacroScope

Euro zone private loan data still looking more like groan data

It’s been more than two years since euro zone banks increased net lending to private businesses. And it’s been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank launched a new plan to turn that situation around.

Everyone is still waiting for results.

 

The latest Reuters Poll forecasts another 1 percent contraction in net lending to the private sector versus a year ago, only a fractionally slower rate of decline than the 1.2 percent fall reported in the month before. There was barely any variance in opinion either, with a few expecting a 1.1 percent decline. Only eight economists out of a sample of more than 40 or so who regularly forecast euro zone economic indicators even had a view.

Nov 23, 2014

Global Economy Weekahead – Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world

LONDON (Reuters) – European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has moved closer to launching sovereign debt purchases and data this week will show just how dangerously low inflation has fallen in the $13 trillion euro zone economy.

A sickly Europe has held back global economic growth for years, and now it is contributing significantly to powerful forces already dragging down inflation across the globe.

Nov 23, 2014

Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world

LONDON (Reuters) – European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has moved closer to launching sovereign debt purchases and data this week will show just how dangerously low inflation has fallen in the $13 trillion euro zone economy.

A sickly Europe has held back global economic growth for years, and now it is contributing significantly to powerful forces already dragging down inflation across the globe.

Nov 18, 2014
via MacroScope

German financial sentiment surprises itself

Financial analysts, usually pretty good at forecasting what financial analysts think, all of a sudden are looking in a cracked mirror, at least in Germany.

After a year of steady declines that were more or less slightly underestimated by said financial analysts, the German ZEW index of investor expectations blew out even the most optimistic prediction in the latest Reuters Poll by bolting skyward.

Nov 17, 2014
via MacroScope

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

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While few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

Out of 24 economists Reuters polled, the most pessimistic was for 1.0 percent annualised growth in the third quarter for the world’s third largest economy.

Nov 12, 2014
via MacroScope

Carney leads analysts to water, but can’t make all of them think

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.

But this time there isn’t a good explanation for their confusion. “Forward guidance” is over, and the inflation forecast, along with incoming data, is what matters. This, after all, has guided BoE policy for the vast majority of its years as an independent central bank since 1997 and should be right in their comfort zone.

Oct 31, 2014
via MacroScope

China growth to slow to 5 percent over next year or so: London consultancy

China’s economic growth will slow sharply to 5 percent over the next year or so rather than close to 7 percent suggested by forecasts based on official statistics, according to a new indicator of growth momentum published by Fathom, a London-based consultancy.

“Before he became premier, Li Keqiang had described GDP figures as unreliable. He suggested some alternative indicators to gauge the true health of the overall economy,” wrote Yiannis Koutelidakis and Laura Eaton, analysts at Fathom.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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