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Jun 30, 2015
via MacroScope

Grexit polled probability strikes danger zone for the first time

While Greece has been trapped in the clutches of an economic and sovereign debt crisis for half a decade, it has only been over the last month that the risk of leaving the euro has risen so dangerously high.

Market measures of risk, including sovereign bond yields, have been all over the map since the crisis began, a veritable Greek yo-yo. But the consensus view among economists polled by Reuters on the probability of Grexit has not risen above 35 percent until this week.

Jun 26, 2015
via MacroScope

Euro zone bank lending to businesses still in the doldrums

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About a year ago, the European Central Bank singled out a recovery in bank loans to private businesses as crucial to a lasting economic recovery – and even more crucially for the ECB, a rise in inflation which it targets at 2 percent.

A year on, following an injection of 384 billion euros of cheap money into the system by the central bank that is meant to be tied to an increase in bank lending, there has been no major improvement. (Keep in mind that is larger than the gross domestic product of Austria and slightly short of Belgium’s.)

Jun 17, 2015
via MacroScope

UK pay finally on the rise?

We’ve been told for years that a meaningful pickup in wages – usually the primary driver of domestic inflation – was required to set the stage for interest rate hikes both in the UK and the U.S.

Now pay is starting to get interesting.

After many months of very tame wage rises and literally a year’s worth of downgrades to official pay growth expectations by the Bank of England, both total pay including bonuses and ex-bonuses easily beat expectations in the latest Reuters poll of economists.

May 20, 2015
via MacroScope

Core Blimey! Why Britons should look beneath headline inflation

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We all now know by now that British inflation has dipped to slightly less than zero, its weakest since 1960. Much of the recent weakness is down to the same reason inflation is so low in the euro zone, Britain’s main trading partner: the collapse in the price of oil.

What hasn’t turned many heads is that Britain — still world-famous as a place that can easily charge you a hefty price for a service you didn’t even know you received — isn’t generating the same amount of inflation as it once did on its own.

May 19, 2015
via MacroScope

A short tale of two central banks and (roughly) one inflation rate

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Euro zone inflation rose to zero in April from -0.1 percent and in Britain it fell to -0.1 percent from zero, the first negative reading since the 1960s.

No matter what differences may exist between these two economies, and no matter how clear that inflation will soon rise because of oil prices and a lower base from which to compare any future change, nobody can dispute that is pretty much the same inflation rate.

May 17, 2015

Global outlook brighter, but not enough yet for higher rates

LONDON (Reuters) – Prospects for a step-change in global economic growth are better than they have been in many years, but much depends on solid evidence that an awful first quarter for the United States is far in the rear-view mirror.

With Wall Street’s benchmark stock index near a record high and bond yields on the rise, the coming week is packed with important global data releases and policy minutes from three major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

May 17, 2015

Global economy weekahead: Outlook brighter, but not enough yet for higher rates

LONDON (Reuters) – Prospects for a step-change in global economic growth are better than they have been in many years, but much depends on solid evidence that an awful first quarter for the United States is far in the rear-view mirror.

With Wall Street’s benchmark stock index near a record high and bond yields on the rise, the coming week is packed with important global data releases and policy minutes from three major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

May 17, 2015

Outlook brighter, but not enough yet for higher rates

LONDON (Reuters) – Prospects for a step-change in global economic growth are better than they have been in many years, but much depends on solid evidence that an awful first quarter for the United States is far in the rear-view mirror.

With Wall Street’s benchmark stock index near a record high and bond yields on the rise, the coming week is packed with important global data releases and policy minutes from three major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

May 13, 2015
via MacroScope

Not much pay worry in these Bank of England forecasts

The Bank of England has told us time and time again that pay growth is key to the interest rate outlook.

The latest official data suggested that pay is starting to pick up — excluding bonuses, it accelerated to 2.2 percent in the 3 months to March on a year ago based on a single-month surge in March to 2.7 percent. It was slightly above consensus expectations for a 2.1 percent rise.

May 10, 2015

Euro zone set to report solid growth, for a change

LONDON (Reuters) – With optimism building that the United States is already recovering smartly from another horrible start to the year, focus will shift this week to reports that may show the euro zone is finally shaking off half a decade of torpor.

The 19-member currency union has been a millstone around the global economy’s neck ever since the financial crisis spawned a sovereign debt crisis particular to Europe.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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