Global Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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Nov 6, 2015

U.S. pessimism burns off but challenges remain for world economy

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – A cloud of pessimism may have burned off for many investors on a bright October U.S. jobs report, but much of the global economy — including China, which not long ago was a top worry for the U.S. Federal Reserve — remains vulnerable.

With markets having swung in just a few weeks from pricing out a Fed interest rate hike next month to a strong likelihood it will take place, however, economic releases in the coming week may be judged simply as supporting evidence.

Nov 2, 2015
via MacroScope

50 still matters for the Fed

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The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, long one of the most reliable leading momentum indicators in the U.S. economy, has been flashing warning signs of late, but especially in the last few months.

Economists are lining up one by one, picking through the components of the latest lackluster report to hold up examples of whatever strength they can find.

Oct 29, 2015
via MacroScope

No, really: look to economists for nuance on Fed’s decision-making

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For all of the incessant talk from market trading desks on how economic forecasters are hopelessly off track on just about everything, their collective thinking on the subtleties of Fed policy near a potentially historic turning point has been well worth listening to.

Never mind the now-template-like charts recycled on social media almost daily, plotting the upward-sloping strands for rate and bond yield forecasts since the dark days of the financial crisis seven years ago. One commentator likened them to U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s hair caught in the wind.

Oct 28, 2015
via MacroScope

Swedish housing market keeps cheering the Riksbank

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Sweden’s Riksbank left its negative interest rate steady at -0.35 percent on Wednesday and increased its bond purchase programme by another 65 billion crowns (just under 7 billion euros). It also said it could cut rates again if needed.

The crown, which the central bank would like to keep weak against the euro, slipped to a two-month low, a modest move. But there’s one market that is certain to relish these latest steps even more: housing. 

Oct 19, 2015
via MacroScope

Another quarter of remarkably precise China GDP growth data

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China GDP releases are starting to look like near-perfect landings each and every time, in all kinds of weather conditions and visibility.

Yet another quarter has just gone by – literally less than three weeks ago – and already statisticians have reported that growth slowed a tiny sliver from Beijing’s 2015 target of 7 percent recorded for the first half of the year. Now it’s 6.9 percent, slightly above the Reuters consensus forecast from 50 economists of 6.8 percent.

Oct 15, 2015
via MacroScope

Global economic slowdown in real danger of persisting: Reuters poll

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The global economic slowdown shows a clear risk of extending into next year, along with an even more prolonged period of disinflation, according to the overwhelming majority of nearly 300 economists polled by Reuters around the world.

That threat, flagged by analysts who generally have been too optimistic about prospects for recovery since the global financial crisis, comes despite ultra-easy monetary policy from most major central banks for the last half decade.

Oct 15, 2015

Global economic slowdown in real danger of persisting

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – The global economic slowdown shows a clear risk of extending into next year, along with an even more prolonged period of disinflation, according to the overwhelming majority of nearly 300 economists polled by Reuters around the world.

That threat, flagged by analysts who generally have been too optimistic about prospects for recovery since the global financial crisis, comes despite ultra-easy monetary policy from most major central banks for the last half decade.

Oct 14, 2015
via MacroScope

Has UK wage inflation peaked yet?

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Wage inflation is supposed to pick up once unemployment gets down to a level at which scarcity of labour means companies are forced to pay more for top talent. This time, at least so far, the theory is either not working so well, or taking its time to kick in. Or perhaps the modest rise we’ve seen is the best we’re going to get.

And it’s a global problem.

After a brief surge higher, average pay growth in Britain slowed unexpectedly even as the unemployment rate plumbed a new low, 5.4 percent, for this economic cycle. Only two economists in a sample of 34 even expected a slowdown in pay growth, and not a single one expected 2.8 percent.

Oct 13, 2015
via MacroScope

Britain and housing: joined at the hip

Britain’s recent economic past is closely tied with the fortunes of the housing market. It does not look like that will change any time soon.


The latest official figures show a familiar pattern: low rates have a much bigger impact on house prices than they do on inflation, which turned negative again in September, never seen before this year since March 1960. London house prices tend to overshoot but the national figures tell a similar tale. Very little has changed recently, especially the interest rate.

Oct 13, 2015
via MacroScope

Top forecasters call UK inflation relapse right

With Bank of England policymakers ready at a moment’s notice over the past several years to warn anyone who will listen that a rate rise is closer than we think or just around the corner or soon coming into sharper relief, the main instrument it targets – inflation at 2 percent – is having nothing of it.

Inflation fell back to -0.1 percent last month, confounding expectations for no inflation, suggesting that the markets are correct in predicting that the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee is still a long way off from raising rates.

    • About Ross

      "Global Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data and Editor, Macroscope, Ross oversees news stories and surveys of professionals on everything from FX rates to long-term economic forecasts to expectations on central bank monetary policy. Based in London, he heads a team of correspondents and analysts in London, Bangalore, Johannesburg and Brasilia."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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