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Jun 7, 2011

Pound outlook deteriorates slightly in June – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The pound is not expected to re-test its 2011 high against a battered U.S. dollar as domestic economic prospects have darkened as well, the latest Reuters poll of currency strategists found.

The poll of over 60 strategists at major banks and research houses around the world was collected before the latest blow to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday from a Chinese foreign exchange official who warned of the risks of excessive dollar holdings. Only 23 contributors in the latest monthly Reuters foreign exchange survey said it would be at or above its year high just under $1.675 at some point in the forecast horizon, compared with 29 who said so in the May poll.

Nov 10, 2010
via MacroScope

Primary dealers driving the printing presses

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The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hotly-contested $600 billion renewal of its quantitative easing programme is roughly the size of the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland.

Expectations by forecasters in Reuters Polls on how much more bond purchases the Fed will conduct beyond the $1.7 trillion already conducted varied widely running up to the Fed’s announcement that it would go ahead with QE2.

Nov 9, 2010

Rich world growth view unmoved by Fed’s QE2

LONDON (Reuters) – Growth prospects across the rich world have not budged since the Federal Reserve announced a second round of bond purchases worth $600 billion (371 billion pounds) , according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 200 economists.

The latest consensus forecasts lend support to critics of the Fed’s hotly-debated policy of further expanding its balance sheet to boost the economy who say it will do more to lift already-soaring asset prices instead.

Nov 9, 2010

Rich world growth view unmoved by Fed’s QE2: Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Growth prospects across the rich world have not budged since the Federal Reserve announced a second round of bond purchases worth $600 billion, according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 200 economists.

The latest consensus forecasts lend support to critics of the Fed’s hotly-debated policy of further expanding its balance sheet to boost the economy who say it will do more to lift already-soaring asset prices instead.

Oct 15, 2010

World economy to slow, rely on emerging Asia – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy is set to rely even more heavily on booming emerging markets next year as recovery in rich nations from the worst financial crisis in generations plods on, Reuters polls showed.

The consensus from more than 500 economists polled across the Group of Seven industrialised nations and Asia found them less optimistic about recovery in the U.S., but forecasting robust growth in China and India next year.

Oct 14, 2010

World economy to slow, rely on emerging Asia

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy is set to rely even more heavily on booming emerging markets like China and India next year as recovery in rich nations from the worst financial crisis in generations plods on, Reuters polls showed.

The consensus from more than 500 economists polled across the Group of Seven industrialised nations and Asia found them less optimistic about recovery in the U.S., but forecasting robust growth in China and India next year.

Oct 14, 2010

World economy to slow, rely on emerging Asia: poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy is set to rely even more heavily on booming emerging markets next year as recovery in rich nations from the worst financial crisis in generations plods on, Reuters polls showed.

The consensus from more than 500 economists polled across the Group of Seven industrialized nations and Asia found them less optimistic about recovery in the U.S., but forecasting robust growth in China and India next year.

Sep 23, 2010
via MacroScope

Darkening outlook for UK housing

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The outlook for the UK housing market has darkened again. The usually optimistic bunch of property market watchers polled by Reuters, who have tended to predict ever-rising property prices no matter what the season or financial climate, now say the market will move sideways for the next two years.

They say that in the next few months, the small double-dip in prices that has begun will continue. Modest gains predicted less than three months ago for this year and next essentially have been wiped away.

Aug 20, 2010
via MacroScope

The U.S. jobless recovery: some context

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In the last comparable recession, which we know wasn’t anywhere near as deep as the Great Recession just endured, U.S. jobless claims peaked at 695,000 in October 1982.

Weekly initial unemployment claims is an extremely reliable leading economic indicator because the figure is not derived from a survey. It’s an actual tally of real people without a job who are queuing up for the dole.

Aug 11, 2010
via MacroScope

How uncertain exactly is the uncertain BoE?

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For a central bank that looks certain to bust its 2 percent inflation target for most of the time between now and the London 2012 Olympics, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King referred to “uncertain” or “uncertainty” about the outlook five times at the May quarterly Inflation Report press conference according to the bank’s transcript, and the latest one didn’t seem much more confident in tone.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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