Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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Aug 9, 2011
via MacroScope

Recession predictions? Better late than never

The chances of a second U.S. recession are rising. But just how high a probability is always difficult to gauge. The latest Reuters consensus from private sector economists – most employed by an industry that got us into the mess – is currently one in four. That’s not very high, but it has crept up from one-in-five when we asked the same people two weeks ago.

In the meantime, the U.S. has done what many would never have thought possible – it lost its AAA sovereign debt rating from Standard & Poor’s, thanks to an acrimonious political debate over the debt ceiling and, in S&P’s judgment, inadequate legislation to tackle deficits over the long-term. Global stock markets have plummeted 20 percent since May, racking up staggering losses over the past few days, rattled by that U.S. rating downgrade, worries about a world economic slowdown, and a spiralling euro zone debt crisis that now is lapping at the shores of a G7 country — Italy.

Aug 9, 2011

U.S. outlook casts shadow over world economy – Reuters poll

BANGALORE (Reuters) – The chances of another U.S. recession are rising and Europe’s recovery is also at risk, according to the latest Reuters poll, taken during the worst stock market selloff since the nadir of the financial crisis.

The latest survey of more than 200 economists, published four years to the day that credit markets first started to dry up, showed analysts cutting forecasts for U.S. growth, a reflection of widespread concern the global economy is slowing rapidly.

Aug 9, 2011

U.S. outlook casts shadow over world economy

BANGALORE (Reuters) – The chances of another U.S. recession are rising and Europe’s recovery is also at risk, according to the latest Reuters poll, taken during the worst stock market selloff since the nadir of the financial crisis.

The latest survey of more than 200 economists, published four years to the day that credit markets first started to dry up, showed analysts cutting forecasts for U.S. growth, a reflection of widespread concern the global economy is slowing rapidly.

Jul 28, 2011

No interest rate hike seen this year – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Faced with a stalling economy, the probability that the Bank of England will launch a second round of government bond purchases has crept up to one in four from one in five over the last month, according to the latest Reuters poll.

The poll of 63 economists, conducted mostly after news the UK economy grew by just 0.2 percent in the second quarter, rounding off a nine-month period of effective stagnation, also saw a tailing off in the probability of a rate hike this year.

Jul 27, 2011

No Bank rate hike in 2011 – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Faced with a stalling economy, the probability that the Bank of England will launch a second round of government bond purchases has crept up to one in four from one in five over the last month, according to the latest Reuters poll.

The poll of 63 economists, conducted mostly after news the UK economy grew by just 0.2 percent in the second quarter, rounding off a nine-month period of effective stagnation, also saw a tailing off in the probability of a rate hike this year.

Jul 27, 2011

No Bank rate hike in 2011; chances of QE2 rising – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Faced with a stalling economy, the probability that the Bank of England will launch a second round of government bond purchases has crept up to one in four from one in five over the last month, according to the latest Reuters poll.

The poll of 63 economists, conducted mostly after news the UK economy grew by just 0.2 percent in the second quarter, rounding off a nine-month period of effective stagnation, also saw a tailing off in the probability of a rate hike this year.

Jun 15, 2011

Euro zone economy to withstand Greece debt crisis

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone economy looks like it will avoid a direct hit from the festering sovereign debt crisis that has enveloped Greece, although growth looks set to remain subdued this year, a Reuters poll found.

The latest survey of economists was notable in how little had changed even as Greece has slid inexorably toward yet another international bailout and as policymakers have issued stern warnings against restructuring its huge pile of debt.

Jun 7, 2011

Pound outlook deteriorates slightly in June – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The pound is not expected to re-test its 2011 high against a battered U.S. dollar as domestic economic prospects have darkened as well, the latest Reuters poll of currency strategists found.

The poll of over 60 strategists at major banks and research houses around the world was collected before the latest blow to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday from a Chinese foreign exchange official who warned of the risks of excessive dollar holdings. Only 23 contributors in the latest monthly Reuters foreign exchange survey said it would be at or above its year high just under $1.675 at some point in the forecast horizon, compared with 29 who said so in the May poll.

Nov 10, 2010
via MacroScope

Primary dealers driving the printing presses

Photo

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hotly-contested $600 billion renewal of its quantitative easing programme is roughly the size of the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland.

Expectations by forecasters in Reuters Polls on how much more bond purchases the Fed will conduct beyond the $1.7 trillion already conducted varied widely running up to the Fed’s announcement that it would go ahead with QE2.

Nov 9, 2010

Rich world growth view unmoved by Fed’s QE2

LONDON (Reuters) – Growth prospects across the rich world have not budged since the Federal Reserve announced a second round of bond purchases worth $600 billion (371 billion pounds) , according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 200 economists.

The latest consensus forecasts lend support to critics of the Fed’s hotly-debated policy of further expanding its balance sheet to boost the economy who say it will do more to lift already-soaring asset prices instead.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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