Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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Aug 3, 2010
via MacroScope

Devil ISM the details

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Stock markets surged on Monday, propelled in part by news that one of the most forward-looking indicators on the state of the U.S. economy came in better than expected.

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index fell only to 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June, less than expected and above the 50.0 cut-off level for growth.

Jul 16, 2010
via MacroScope

Dismissing the double dip

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With all the talk of double-dip recession and how many commentators are dismissing the chances as insignificant, here are a few nuggets from the Reuters polls we ran this week.

Right now, the median probability of a double-dip is running at just 15 percent in the U.S., despite the fact nearly every single data point has turned decisively south in recent weeks. Financial markets are instead ogling financial firms still partly on life support or just off it raking in big profits.

Jul 14, 2010
via MacroScope

A jagged global recovery… but still no double dip

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The latest Reuters quarterly economic outlook, based on surveys of more than 600 economists across Asia, Europe and North America smells a bit of danger.

Growth is looking very uneven. Inflation is a worry here but not there. Unemployment looks to remain perilously high.

Jul 14, 2010

World economy to gear down, recession risk low

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy will cool a bit in the next few months as powerhouses China and the United States gear down and governments attempt to dam rivers of red ink, Reuters polls of over 600 economists showed on Wednesday.

Yet several Asian economies, like India’s and South Korea’s, are expected to perform better this year than thought just a few months ago, underscoring how uneven the global recovery has become from a historic financial crisis and deep recession.

Jul 14, 2010

World economy to gear down, India seen doing better

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy will cool a bit in the next few months as powerhouses China and the United States gear down and governments attempt to dam rivers of red ink, Reuters polls of over 600 economists showed on Wednesday.

Yet several Asian economies, like India’s and South Korea’s, are expected to perform better this year than thought just a few months ago, underscoring how uneven the global recovery has become from a historic financial crisis and deep recession.

Jul 13, 2010
via MacroScope

Rip-off Britain in effect

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While most of the developed world frets about deflation, in Britain, inflation just won’t quit. 

The Bank of England has been forecasting a sharp fall in consumer price inflation for about as long as Britons have hoped for a summer of uninterrupted sunshine. But at least Britons are still betting on a fair amount of rain. 

Jul 12, 2010
via MacroScope

The octopus and the economists

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What do an eight-legged creature in an aquarium in Germany and 74 economists have in common? The consensus view that Spain would claim the World Cup — until the economists, as they so often do, changed their minds.

If World Cup 2010 goes down as one of the most unpredictable and exciting competitions in recent history, bringing underdogs Holland and Spain to the final showdown, what was hopelessly routine was watching so-called expert opinion converge around the safest bet. At least among financial professionals, who have done so well of late predicting the future.

Jul 7, 2010
Jul 7, 2010
Jul 5, 2010
    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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