Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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Aug 20, 2010
via MacroScope

The U.S. jobless recovery: some context

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In the last comparable recession, which we know wasn’t anywhere near as deep as the Great Recession just endured, U.S. jobless claims peaked at 695,000 in October 1982.

Weekly initial unemployment claims is an extremely reliable leading economic indicator because the figure is not derived from a survey. It’s an actual tally of real people without a job who are queuing up for the dole.

Aug 11, 2010
via MacroScope

How uncertain exactly is the uncertain BoE?

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For a central bank that looks certain to bust its 2 percent inflation target for most of the time between now and the London 2012 Olympics, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King referred to “uncertain” or “uncertainty” about the outlook five times at the May quarterly Inflation Report press conference according to the bank’s transcript, and the latest one didn’t seem much more confident in tone.

Aug 10, 2010
via MacroScope

The weightless U.S. economy

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The growth outlook still isn’t looking too bad for the second half, it spite of all the gloomy U.S. data in recent weeks.

The latest Reuters poll of about 250 professional forecasters predicts a mild slowdown for the U.S. and still only a 15 percent chance of a the economy dipping back into recession, even though a good two-thirds of economists have clipped their growth forecasts for second half of the year.

Aug 10, 2010

U.S. to lead economic cooling but no double dip

LONDON (Reuters) – The world’s richest economies, led by the United States, will cool down for the remainder of this year but there is only a slim chance they will fall back into recession, the latest Reuters poll of 250 economists showed.

The findings, collected after data on Friday showed the U.S. economy once again shed jobs last month, are surprisingly upbeat given expectations the Federal Reserve may announce later on Tuesday new measures to stimulate the economy.

Aug 3, 2010
via MacroScope

Devil ISM the details

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Stock markets surged on Monday, propelled in part by news that one of the most forward-looking indicators on the state of the U.S. economy came in better than expected.

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index fell only to 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June, less than expected and above the 50.0 cut-off level for growth.

Jul 16, 2010
via MacroScope

Dismissing the double dip

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With all the talk of double-dip recession and how many commentators are dismissing the chances as insignificant, here are a few nuggets from the Reuters polls we ran this week.

Right now, the median probability of a double-dip is running at just 15 percent in the U.S., despite the fact nearly every single data point has turned decisively south in recent weeks. Financial markets are instead ogling financial firms still partly on life support or just off it raking in big profits.

Jul 14, 2010
via MacroScope

A jagged global recovery… but still no double dip

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The latest Reuters quarterly economic outlook, based on surveys of more than 600 economists across Asia, Europe and North America smells a bit of danger.

Growth is looking very uneven. Inflation is a worry here but not there. Unemployment looks to remain perilously high.

Jul 14, 2010

World economy to gear down, recession risk low

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy will cool a bit in the next few months as powerhouses China and the United States gear down and governments attempt to dam rivers of red ink, Reuters polls of over 600 economists showed on Wednesday.

Yet several Asian economies, like India’s and South Korea’s, are expected to perform better this year than thought just a few months ago, underscoring how uneven the global recovery has become from a historic financial crisis and deep recession.

Jul 14, 2010

World economy to gear down, India seen doing better

LONDON (Reuters) – The world economy will cool a bit in the next few months as powerhouses China and the United States gear down and governments attempt to dam rivers of red ink, Reuters polls of over 600 economists showed on Wednesday.

Yet several Asian economies, like India’s and South Korea’s, are expected to perform better this year than thought just a few months ago, underscoring how uneven the global recovery has become from a historic financial crisis and deep recession.

Jul 13, 2010
via MacroScope

Rip-off Britain in effect

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While most of the developed world frets about deflation, in Britain, inflation just won’t quit. 

The Bank of England has been forecasting a sharp fall in consumer price inflation for about as long as Britons have hoped for a summer of uninterrupted sunshine. But at least Britons are still betting on a fair amount of rain. 

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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