For all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.
Not only that, but surprise news that two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted this month to hike Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent does not seem to have shaken the view that it will be early next year before rates go up.
But the relentless downward trajectory of inflation in the euro zone has got plenty of economists sounding unconvinced that the situation will turn around any time soon.
(Reuters) – Global growth prospects have dimmed slightly, with the United States and Britain leading industrialised economies that are not generating much inflation even after years of aggressive monetary stimulus, Reuters polls found.
While China’s economic growth broadly stabilised in the latest quarter, the threat of a sharp correction in its overextended property market and any aftershocks remains the biggest danger for the world economy.
(Reuters) – Global growth prospects have dimmed slightly, with the United States and Britain leading industrialized economies that are not generating much inflation even after years of aggressive monetary stimulus, Reuters polls found.
While China’s economic growth broadly stabilized in the latest quarter, the threat of a sharp correction in its overextended property market and any aftershocks remains the biggest danger for the world economy.
When your population is 1.4 billion and you are in the midst of an unprecedented government and credit-fuelled expansion in infrastructure on your way to developed economy status, there are plenty of things that may get overlooked.
Both Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen have dropped many hints in speeches and public policy statements over the past several months that wage inflation likely will play an important role in any decision to raise interest rates.
Companies have finally begun taking on staff in consistently greater numbers, half a decade after the end of a deep recession brought on by one of the most punishing financial crises in history.
The euro zone is not deflating, it’s just at risk of a too-prolonged period of low inflation, says European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Judging by recent evidence, it might be very prolonged, which is bad news for an economy struggling to shift out of low gear.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shocked markets last week, saying interest rates could rise sooner than expected.
At first glance, the latest UK inflation data suggest they might not.
Inflation has nearly halved to 1.5 percent in May from 2.9 percent last June. And wage inflation is much lower.
“It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”
That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.
So far, Carney has seemed comfortable with keeping rates at a record low of 0.5 percent for another year. That has been the forward guidance markets have been following.