Editor, Reuters Polls and Economic Data, London
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May 5, 2015
via MacroScope

Is the dollar taking over the Fed’s job?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While the surge in the greenback since July has turned up in all sorts of economic data, much of it not good, the big one may have just landed.

The U.S. trade deficit expanded in March by the largest amount in percentage terms in nearly two decades to a 6-1/2 year high, completely trouncing all forecasts.

Apr 29, 2015
via MacroScope

U.S. growth outlook snowed under yet again

For many years in a row, since a form of feeble recovery began from the worst financial crisis in more than 80 years, a similar pattern of déjà vu has set in for the U.S. economy.

The year kicks off with a bout of optimism about growth prospects, the stock market rallies, only to be followed by rapidly-deteriorating forecasts for first quarter GDP, which turn out to be nowhere near pessimistic enough.

Apr 26, 2015

More central banks meet, but ability to pilot economies in doubt

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) – Most central banks have been
easing policy since the start of the year and are set to do
more, but it still isn’t clear whether that new activism, which
has pushed stock markets to record highs, will help the global
economy much.

Several meet this week to set policy, including the U.S.
Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and Sweden’s Riksbank, which
all have turned to government bond purchases as stimulus after
running out of interest rates to cut.

Apr 23, 2015

Europe, China business activity disappoint in April

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) – Business activity slowed more than any forecaster expected in the euro zone this month while manufacturing in Asia’s top two economies hit the brakes, suggesting the global recovery path is less clear than policymakers are predicting.

The sudden drop in the euro zone flash composite Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was driven by sharply slower growth in manufacturing orders in Germany and France, suggesting recent optimism about the euro zone may be overdone.

Apr 22, 2015

Global growth outlook steady despite oil fall, stimulus burst

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – A collapse in oil prices that gave a windfall to the world’s energy consumers and a flurry of policy easing from central banks might have been expected to brighten the outlook for global economic growth.

But Reuters polls of more than 250 economists across Europe and North America show only modest upgrades to growth forecasts and a reluctance to relinquish a depressed inflation view, despite the rush of rate cuts and central bank cash that most respondents believe is far from over.

Apr 22, 2015

Global growth outlook steady despite oil fall, stimulus burst: Reuters poll

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – A collapse in oil prices that gave a windfall to the world’s energy consumers and a flurry of policy easing from central banks might have been expected to brighten the outlook for global economic growth.

But Reuters polls of more than 250 economists across Europe and North America show only modest upgrades to growth forecasts and a reluctance to relinquish a depressed inflation view, despite the rush of rate cuts and central bank cash that most respondents believe is far from over.

Mar 5, 2015
via MacroScope

The U.S. job market is consistently beating expectations

The evidence clearly shows that the U.S. job market now is consistently beating rising expectations, which should give pause to those doubting an interest rate rise is coming from the Federal Reserve later this year.

Including revisions, it has been well over a year since there was a considerable disappointment in monthly non-farm payrolls hiring data.

Mar 4, 2015

Analysis – For first time in years, euro economy starts surprising on upside

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone economy is sprouting more green shoots than anticipated just as the European Central Bank fires up a money printing programme worth more than 1 trillion euros.

An analysis of Reuters polls shows more than half the most important economic reports since the start of the year, as well as data across the bloc’s four largest economies, have beaten the consensus forecast and many have topped the highest prediction.

Mar 4, 2015

For first time in years, euro economy starts surprising on upside

LONDON (Reuters) – The euro zone economy is sprouting more green shoots than anticipated just as the European Central Bank fires up a money printing program worth more than 1 trillion euros.

An analysis of Reuters polls shows more than half the most important economic reports since the start of the year, as well as data across the bloc’s four largest economies, have beaten the consensus forecast and many have topped the highest prediction.

Feb 22, 2015

Weekahead: Fed rate rise timing back in the spotlight

LONDON (Reuters) – Greece’s struggles with its euro zone creditors may have grabbed much of the world’s attention, but U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is likely to reclaim the spotlight this week with testimony on a long-anticipated shift in policy.

If the Fed sticks to mid-year for its first interest rate rise in a decade, it will be perceived as a reflection of the world economy’s growing resilience.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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