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Jan 6, 2014

Surveys point to better but patchy growth as 2013 ends

LONDON/NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Service industry growth
slowed sharply in China as 2013 drew to a close but picked up
across most of Europe, while U.S. firms hired more workers
despite slower growth in activity last month.

The surveys released on Monday underscored a still uneven
pace of global economic growth and suggested an onslaught of
central bank stimulus is unlikely to dry up anytime soon.

Jan 6, 2014

Decent end to 2013 for global services but uneven

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Service industry growth slowed
sharply in China as 2013 drew to a close but picked up across
most of Europe, suggesting still very uneven global economic
performance even as most signs point to a strengthening U.S.
revival.

Taken together with business surveys on manufacturing
published late last week, the data suggest that an onslaught of
global central bank stimulus has had some impact but is not
likely to halt any time soon.

Dec 13, 2013
via MacroScope

Euro zone stock market investors: “Crisis? What crisis?”

European shares will be the best performers next year, according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 350 strategists, analysts and fund managers. Frankfurt’s DAX is already up nearly 20 percent this year and is forecast to rally another 10 percent in 2014.

But the experts in foreign exchange that Reuters surveys each month are also saying that the euro, just above $1.37, and not far off a two-year high against the dollar, will fall.

Dec 9, 2013
via MacroScope

Hopes for a weaker euro looking more like fantasy

Hopes that the soaring euro will eventually fall and help the economy with a much-needed export boost for struggling euro zone nations are looking more and more like fantasy.

The collective talk about its inevitable drop is beginning to sound much like the drum-beat of opinion lasting more than half a decade that said the yen would fall while it stubbornly marched in the other direction.

Nov 28, 2013
via MacroScope

Housing boom and bust lesson still not sinking in

Housing markets are booming again in parts of the U.S. and Britain and they haven’t stopped doing so in Canada for the better part of a generation.

What is most striking about the latest round, at least when you listen to those who ought to know, is how nothing much except the price has changed.

Nov 20, 2013

U.S. Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10, countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 20, 2013

Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out -Reuters poll

LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst
financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received
a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two
months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies
ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10,
countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot
trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 20, 2013

Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out

LONDON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10, countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 8, 2013
via MacroScope

Another backhand volley from forward guidance

Forward guidance is quickly proving to be rather backward.

While it’s a favourite game of every punter who’s not paid to make predictions to trash the track record of those who are, just about everyone who follows the European Central Bank was stunned by the timing of its decision to cut rates on Thursday.

In the days beforehand, a handful of forecasters began speculating after news of a collapse in inflation that the ECB might fire what could be their last shot on standard monetary policy using interest rates in a long time.

Sep 17, 2013
via MacroScope

Note to markets: it’s been September all along for the Fed taper

Now that the outcome of one of the most anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings in history is just hours away, most investors and traders have settled on the view that the central bank will announce a plan to trim the pace of its $85 billion in monthly purchases of government and mortgage-backed securities on Wednesday. We just don’t know which, if any, of the two asset classes it will focus on, and by how much it will taper what it buys each month.

What most probably don’t know is that for all the incessant talk in financial markets over the past few months about uncertainty, the timing hasn’t really been in question. The consensus of forecasters polled by Reuters has been pretty clear since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted in May that quantitative easing might have to slow later in the year.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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