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Nov 28, 2013
via MacroScope

Housing boom and bust lesson still not sinking in

Housing markets are booming again in parts of the U.S. and Britain and they haven’t stopped doing so in Canada for the better part of a generation.

What is most striking about the latest round, at least when you listen to those who ought to know, is how nothing much except the price has changed.

Nov 20, 2013

U.S. Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out – Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10, countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 20, 2013

Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out -Reuters poll

LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst
financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received
a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two
months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies
ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10,
countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot
trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 20, 2013

Fed’s Bernanke scores 8/10 from economists on his way out

LONDON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has steered the U.S. economy through the worst financial crisis and recession in many generations, has received a glowing review from economists for his overall performance two months before he steps down.

Architect of some of the most aggressive monetary policies ever conducted by a central bank, Bernanke scored 8 out of 10, countering the criticism he has faced for failing to spot trouble brewing in advance.

Nov 8, 2013
via MacroScope

Another backhand volley from forward guidance

Forward guidance is quickly proving to be rather backward.

While it’s a favourite game of every punter who’s not paid to make predictions to trash the track record of those who are, just about everyone who follows the European Central Bank was stunned by the timing of its decision to cut rates on Thursday.

In the days beforehand, a handful of forecasters began speculating after news of a collapse in inflation that the ECB might fire what could be their last shot on standard monetary policy using interest rates in a long time.

Sep 17, 2013
via MacroScope

Note to markets: it’s been September all along for the Fed taper

Now that the outcome of one of the most anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings in history is just hours away, most investors and traders have settled on the view that the central bank will announce a plan to trim the pace of its $85 billion in monthly purchases of government and mortgage-backed securities on Wednesday. We just don’t know which, if any, of the two asset classes it will focus on, and by how much it will taper what it buys each month.

What most probably don’t know is that for all the incessant talk in financial markets over the past few months about uncertainty, the timing hasn’t really been in question. The consensus of forecasters polled by Reuters has been pretty clear since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted in May that quantitative easing might have to slow later in the year.

Aug 20, 2013
via MacroScope

Time to taper the taper talk?

It’s been three months since the Federal Reserve first hinted that it’s going to have to ease off on its extraordinary monetary stimulus, but financial markets are still not settled on the matter.

But while volatility is on the rise – surely partly a result of thinned trading volumes during the peak summer vacation season – the consensus around when the Fed will start cutting back hasn’t budged.

Aug 14, 2013

U.S. in modest recovery; Fed to cut back on QE next month: Reuters poll

By Ross Finley

(Reuters) – The U.S. economy is on a modest, yet sturdy recovery path that will bring down the jobless rate to 7 percent by the middle of 2014, leaving the Federal Reserve on track to ease off on its stimulus program next month, a Reuters poll of economists found.

While traders in financial markets have been fretting over when the Fed will pare back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, forecasters have remained convinced over past months that September is the time.

Aug 14, 2013

U.S. in modest recovery; Fed to cut back on QE next month

By Ross Finley

(Reuters) – The U.S. economy is on a modest, yet sturdy recovery path that will bring down the jobless rate to 7 percent by the middle of 2014, leaving the Federal Reserve on track to ease off on its stimulus program next month, a Reuters poll of economists found.

While traders in financial markets have been fretting over when the Fed will pare back its $85 billion (£54.7 billion) in monthly bond purchases, forecasters have remained convinced over past months that September is the time.

Jun 12, 2013
via MacroScope

Yellen likely to replace Bernanke at Fed, but beware “overwhelming” top picks

Reuters has just published a poll of economists that shows Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen is the overwhelming favorite pick for President Obama to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman next year.

The poll conclusions are based on the collective thoughts of dozens of professionals who are not only paid to make these kinds of predictions, but who are also likely to have been in a conversation with people who ought to know.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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