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Nov 18, 2014
via MacroScope

German financial sentiment surprises itself

Financial analysts, usually pretty good at forecasting what financial analysts think, all of a sudden are looking in a cracked mirror, at least in Germany.

After a year of steady declines that were more or less slightly underestimated by said financial analysts, the German ZEW index of investor expectations blew out even the most optimistic prediction in the latest Reuters Poll by bolting skyward.

Nov 17, 2014
via MacroScope

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

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While few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan’s recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

Out of 24 economists Reuters polled, the most pessimistic was for 1.0 percent annualised growth in the third quarter for the world’s third largest economy.

Nov 12, 2014
via MacroScope

Carney leads analysts to water, but can’t make all of them think

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.

But this time there isn’t a good explanation for their confusion. “Forward guidance” is over, and the inflation forecast, along with incoming data, is what matters. This, after all, has guided BoE policy for the vast majority of its years as an independent central bank since 1997 and should be right in their comfort zone.

Oct 31, 2014
via MacroScope

China growth to slow to 5 percent over next year or so: London consultancy

China’s economic growth will slow sharply to 5 percent over the next year or so rather than close to 7 percent suggested by forecasts based on official statistics, according to a new indicator of growth momentum published by Fathom, a London-based consultancy.

“Before he became premier, Li Keqiang had described GDP figures as unreliable. He suggested some alternative indicators to gauge the true health of the overall economy,” wrote Yiannis Koutelidakis and Laura Eaton, analysts at Fathom.

Sep 23, 2014
via MacroScope

TLTRO effect is the ECB’s Waiting for Godot

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When banks are offered hundreds of billions of euros worth of what is essentially free money and they don’t take everything they can get, something has gone seriously wrong.

The European Central Bank’s latest offer of cheap cash to banks — only this time tied to loans they provide to private sector businesses rather than with no strings attached — has gotten off to a weak start.

Sep 11, 2014

Quebec parallel shows final weeks critical in tight Scottish polls

LONDON (Reuters) – Support for and against Scottish independence is running neck-and-neck a week before referendum day, leaving it to a sizeable number of undecided voters to tip the balance.

A series of opinion polls over the past week, with one notable exception, have shown a surge in support for the “Yes” campaign that has panicked Britain’s elite.

Sep 11, 2014

Analysis – Quebec parallel shows final weeks critical in tight Scottish polls

LONDON (Reuters) – Support for and against Scottish independence is running neck-and-neck a week before referendum day, leaving it to a sizeable number of undecided voters to tip the balance.

A series of opinion polls over the past week, with one notable exception, have shown a surge in support for the “Yes” campaign that has panicked Britain’s elite.

Aug 28, 2014
via MacroScope

The ECB keeps putting up the cash, but where’s the lending?

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For the European Central Bank, a lot is riding on euro zone banks ramping up lending to the private sector. Unfortunately, after a very long time, lending still is not growing. It fell 1.6 percent on a year ago in July.

Struggling with a dangerously low inflation rate that is expected to dip even further to 0.3 percent in August, the ECB placed a big bet back in June that hundreds of billions of euros more in cash for banks in further liquidity auctions in October and December this year would help turn the situation around.

Aug 20, 2014
via MacroScope

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

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For all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Not only that, but surprise news that two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted this month to hike Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent does not seem to have shaken the view that it will be early next year before rates go up.

Jul 31, 2014
via MacroScope

Another month, another downside surprise on euro zone inflation

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Nobody except a born pessimist ever expects a bad situation to get incrementally worse.

But the relentless downward trajectory of inflation in the euro zone has got plenty of economists sounding unconvinced that the situation will turn around any time soon.

    • About Ross

      "Ross Finley, Global Editor, Reuters Polls & Economic Data, commissions consensus forecasts and edits related news stories on everything from foreign exchange rates to stock markets to expectations on monetary policy from major central banks. He is based in London."
      Joined Reuters:
      1999
      Languages:
      English, French
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