“How do you read this?” An agitated neighbour dropped in on me late last night to ask about a top Russian official’s surprise suggestion that Russia’s hawkish, anti-Western foreign policy should be “adjusted” because it could damage investment.

In a country where top officials normally never disagree in public on policy, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin’s remark at an investment conference was something of a bombshell.

Kudrin did not expand on his cautious remark. A fellow government liberal, state electricity chief Anatoly Chubais, went a bit further. He suggested that moves like a recent ban on regional offices of the British Council did not help to improve Russia’s image abroad.

But analysts were fast to link the words by Kudrin, an ally of President Vladimir Putin’s anointed successor Dmitry Medvedev, to the March 2 presidential election.
“There is no doubt there is a non-stop under-the-carpet struggle being waged in the Kremlin now with (hardliners) trying to attack the group associated with Dmitry Medvedev,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, head of independent think-tank Mercator. “Kudrin’s remarks are a clear message to the West that Medvedev needs protection.”

The conversation with my neighbour suddenly revived memories of the early days of Soviet Perestroika reform in 1985-86, when then Kremlin leader Mikhail Gorbachev fought hardline rivals in the Communist Party’s ruling Politburo.
In public speeches, both sides worked hard to deny the existence of any split in the leadership and stressed their unity over the principles of Communism. But Russians, taught to read carefully between the lines, always tried to guess who was on top every day by reading newspaper editorials.
When front pages covered articles by liberal Central Committee member Alexander Yakovlev defending the virtues of “socialist pluralism” and “peaceful coexistence with the West”, the liberals rejoiced. When Politburo member Yegor Ligachev attacked “renegades” and urged uncompromising adherence to “party principles”, it was the day of the hardliners.

Twenty years on the secretive Soviet-style atmosphere is back ahead of Russia’s presidential succession.

Putin has said he sees the main point of the March 2 polls as ensuring a continuation of his course, which many Russians believe helped to revive the nation’s prosperity and self-confidence after the turmoil of the first post-Soviet decade.

Technically, there is no problem. According to the latest opinion polls, Medvedev’s popularity, helped by generous Kremlin support and ample airtime on state media, has rocketed to 70 percent, nearly 10 times more than his nearest rival.

The other big task - to preserve the image of unity in the Kremlin ranks - is more tricky.
Officially, there are no clans or political factions in Putin’s entourage.
“We are friends and allies,” Medvedev has said.
But the truth is hard to conceal. Recent events have shown that faction-fighting exists and Russians are learning again to read between the lines.

Medvedev’s anointing as Putin’s chosen successor against expectations that he would choose a tougher ally, First Deputy Prime Minister and former Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov, was viewed as a defeat for the hawks’ camp. Their leading members have all but disappeared from public radars.

But did this mean a victory for liberals, with whom Medvedev is associated, or simply a manoeuvre to install a weaker leader who is easier for Putin to manage?

Almost anything which happens in Russia nowdays is carefully scrutinised for possible clues indicating what is going on inside the corridors of power. Kremlinologists, after a brief period of unemployment in the more open Yeltsin era, are now back in demand.

A few examples:

– the Pro-Kremlin youth movement Nashi, which has revived memories of the Soviet-era Young Communists League, says it will stop running big campaigns. Since many of them were anti-Western and anti-liberal, Kremlin liberals score one point.
– Russia launches navy exercises in the Atlantic, unseen since the Soviet days, and resumes patrols by strategic bombers? Hardliners score.

–Information is leaked that Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, personally loyal to Putin, will become chairman of the board of gas giant Gazprom. The move, which will clearly reduce the influence of a future president Medvedev, is immediately interpreted as a confirmation of the theory that Putin wants a weak leader he can control.

“Watching all this is real fun,” our neighbour concluded our conversation. “But I would prefer more clarity from the top. I am not saying a right for us to decide, just more clarity.”