There is no doubt that President Vladimir Putin will get the result he wants in Russia’s March 2 presidential polls. Pollsters confidently predict the victory of his anointed successor, Dmitry Medvedev, with a solid 60-70 percent of the vote. Most analysts think Putin is pretty serious about his promise to become Medvedev’s prime minister, at least initially, in order to keep a close eye on his successor.

But what happens next? Will the Putin-Medvedev tandem last and can the two work smoothly in a bizarre situation when the mentor is supposed to report to his pupil ? Or, as one ambassador here put it:  “Will Putin hang Medvedev’s picture on his office wall ?” There are no answers yet.

Dmitry Badovsky, deputy head of the privately-funded thinktank Institute for Social Systems, has given some clues, offering his view on what might happen after the election in an article published by the Vedomosti business daily: http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article.shtml?2008/02/12/141488

Badovsky sees it working like this: 
1. There will be a transitional period between the March 2 election and the inauguration of the new president planned for May 7-8. Nominations of officials and legislative acts in that time are likely to show whether Medvedev will redistribute power away from the presidency in favour of the prime minister. “It will become clear on what principles of power-sharing and with what people the administration of President Medvedev will be formed,” Badovsky writes.

2. “May Tablets”. Straight after his inauguration Medvedev will make his first state of the nation address. “This will show how closely Medvedev’s plans will coincide with Putin’s,” Badovsky says, referring to the political priorities spelled out by the president in a speech last Friday outlining Russia’s development to 2020.

3. International stage. According to Badovsky, a July summit of the Group of Eight industrialised nations in Japan will show the emerging balance of power in the Kremlin. “One important question is whether Putin will go there, say as part of bilateral Russia-Japan consultations ?”

4. “Medvedev in October”. Six months after the inauguration will be a good time to see whether the new system works, Badovsky says. “It will become clear how the new government works and what economic realities it faces,” he comments. “The main thing to watch is the movement of Putin’s and Medvedev’s popularity ratings, which will start reflecting the new system, rather than the succession process.”