Sebastian Tong's Profile
Stop pushing and we’ll do it
The growing acrimony in the international debate over China’s currency policy has led some to warn that Beijing could dig in its heels if pushed to hard to let its yuan rise.
But Barclays Capital says Beijing could let its currency strengthen as early as next month, notwithstanding its public resolve against Washington’s threat to label it as a currency manipulator.
“They do have a ‘If you stop pushing, we’ll do it’ attitude, which is kind of childish, really. But it will happen because they are the only country in the world, besides India, where there is a whiff of inflation,” says Barclays’ asset allocation head Tim Bond.
“It’s in their own interest. It’s the right thing to do.”
Barclays expects the relaxation of China’s de facto dollar peg to result in the equivalent of a five percent annual appreciation over the next year.
Investors should also keep the heightened rhetoric among U.S. lawmakers in perspective, Bond says.
“The anti-China lobbyists in the U.S. are a lot noisier than the pro-China lobbyists.”