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Shop Talk

Retailers, consumers and prices

February 8th, 2007

Retail’s Winter Wonderland

Posted by: Brad Dorfman
Tags: Uncategorized

That blast of winter that has turned much of the U.S. into Ice Station Zebra proved to be a boon for many U.S. retailers. Most retailers posted January sales that beat expectations, as gift-card wielding consumers, buoyed by lower gas prices, swept up the sweaters and scarves that stayed in store shelves during the unseasonably warm holiday shopping season.

According to Retail Metrics, 59 percent of retailers beat forecast in January, while only 39 percent missed expectations. Even Gap, which had seen same-store sales drop every month for a year, said sales same-store sales were flat in January.:
Notes: The table includes the range of mean estimates* given by analysts polled by Reuters, the average of those means#, and the actual change in same-store sales reported by the companies^.

All figures expressed in percentage change over the same period last year except number of estimates.

The January sales period included five weeks for most retailers. But many of their same-store sales comparisons were based on a four-week period to match the year-ago January sales period. The table provides either or both comparisons where available.

      JAN-07   JAN-07  
    Analysts’ same-store No. of same-store
Company Symbol estimates* sales(est)# Estimates sales (act)^








Discount Stores         5 weeks / 4 weeks








Wal-Mart##   2.2    
Target   4 to 5.5 4.6 14   / 5.1
Costco   2 to 5 3.2 14 2.0 /  
BJ’s Wholesale   0.5 to 2.5 1.5 13 3.5 /  
Dollar General   2 to 7 4.1 7 6.8 /  
Family Dollar   1.4 to 2 1.9 7 0.1 / 1.7
Ross Stores   2 to 3 2.2 6   / 2.0








Kohl’s   4.5 to 8 5.8 13   / 8.7
JC Penney   2 to 7 3.6 10   / 3.6
Federated   3 to 8 5.0 10   / 8.6
Nordstrom   5 to 8 6.0 11   / 11.1
Saks   5 to 10 7.1 9   / 11.4
Dillard’s   -3 to 2 1.3 6   / 3.0
Bon-Ton Stores   0 to 0 0.0 1   / 6.4








Gap   11 to -6 8.0 12   / Flat
Limited   6.1 to 10 8.1 11 11.0 /  
Abercrombie   -5 to -0.2 2.3 11 6.0 /  
Hot Topic^^   -7 to -5 5.9 9 6.6 /  
Chico’s FAS   2.4 to 0 1.5 10 3.5 /  
American Eagle^^   8 to 15 11.1 14 17.0 /  
Aeropostale   1 to 8 2.9 7 5.4 /  
Pacific Sunwear^^^   -7 to -3 4.7 8 7.7 /  
Ann Taylor   8.8 to -1 5.5 8   / 10.2
Gymboree   12 to 12 12.0 2 Flat /  
Bebe   1 to 4 2.1 8   / 0.8
Claire’s Stores   -4 to 3 0.8 6 3.0 /  
Children’s Place   1.4 to 4 2.7 2   / 3.0








Sharper Image   25 to -17 21.0 2 -25~

## For U.S. stores
^^ Reported on Wednesday
^^^ Reported on Tuesday
~ For the month ended Jan. 31, 2007

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