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Retailers, consumers and prices

April 12th, 2007

Sales March on, but could head for April fall

Posted by: Brad Dorfman
Tags: Uncategorized

easter.jpgJust about everything that could go right for retailers did in March — warm weather early in the month, the move of a big apparel-buying holiday into the reporting period and a shift in the National Retail Federation’s sales reporting calendar.
And retailers reaped the reward, with almost all sectors posting better-than-expected sales in March at stores open at least a year.
“Warmer temperatures across much of the country following a cooler than normal February leading to pent up spring demand, tax refunds, an earlier Easter holiday, NRF calendar shift, a solid underlying jobs market, and modest March comp expectations all led retailers to a robust positive surprise this morning,” Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, said.
Sixty-nine percent of the retailers the firm tracks beat expectations, Perkins said.
But pitfalls are already on the horizon. April is expected to be a tougher month and not just because all the Easter-related sales moved to March. Kohl’s Corp. notes that April got off to a cold start. That could crimp spending on spring items.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said the tough sales outlook for April would make it hard for the world’s largest retailer to meet its quarterly earnings forecast, even after March sales exceeded expectations.

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The following table lists select U.S. retail companies that have reported March sales at stores open at least a year, a key retail measure also known as same-store sales.

The table includes the range of mean estimates* given by analysts polled by Reuters, the average of those means#, and the actual change in same-store sales reported by the companies^.

All figures expressed in percentage change over the same period last year except number of estimates.

      MARCH-07   MARCH-07
    Analysts’ same-store No. of same-store
Company Symbol estimates* sales(est)# Estimates sales (act)^






Wal-Mart##   1.5 to 3.9 1.9 12 4.0
Target**   5.8 to 13 11.5 12 12.0
Costco   3.4 to 7 4.8 12 6.0
BJ’s Wholesale   0 to 2.5 1.2 10 5.5
TJX Cos.   4 to 6 4.9 9 6.0
Dollar General   4 to 7 5.1 8 5.5
Family Dollar   2 to 4 3.7 10 5.8
Ross Stores   4 to 5 4.6 8 6.0






Department Stores        






Kohl’s   5 to 15 9.7 15 16.8
JC Penney   6 to 10 7.7 12 10.6
Federated   2.5 to 6 3.6 11 2.3
Nordstrom   7 to 10 8.6 14 15.0
Saks   8 to 20 13.1 8 10.1
Dillard’s   -3 to 2 0.3 8 6.0
Bon-Ton Stores   4 to 5 4.5 2 3.8






Gap   -4 to 1 1.0 12 6.0
Limited   5 to 9 6.9 11 8.0
Abercrombie   -2 to 6 1.6 14 7.0
Hot Topic**   -1 to 3 0.2 9 3.4
American Eagle**   10 to 15 11.6 15 20.0
Aeropostale   6 to 13 8.9 8 15.9
Pacific Sunwear   0 to 8 3.5 13 14.1
AnnTaylor   -1 to 4 1.7 10 6.1
Gymboree   4 to 8 5.7 7 9.0
Bebe   0 to 3 2.2 9 0.1
Claire’s Stores   4 to 6 5.0 5 8.0
Children’s Place   4 to 10 6.9 6 7.0






Pier 1 Imports~   -8 to -4.8 6.6 6
Sharper Image   22.5 to -19 20.8 2 29.0

## For U.S. stores
**Reported on Wednesday.
~Pier 1 said it will no longer report same-store sales on a monthly basis.

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