When retailers reported weaker-than expected July sales, they blamed procrastinators. They said shoppers were delaying their back-to-school purchases because schools across the country were starting later and tax-free holidays in states like Florida and Texas were shifted into August this year from July last year.

Well, school is back in session and it’s time to come clean.

On Thursday, major chains like Gap, Limited, Wal-Mart and Macy’s will report their final August sales results.

Here are excerpts of what analysts are expecting for the month’s results:

Eric Beder, analyst with Brean Murray, Carret & Co:
–August, in the heart of back-to-school selling and the beginning of full fall sets, is a very important month to set the tone for the remainder of the year.
–Given the negative calendar shifts in July, we believe retailers, especially the teen-based players, faced a number of headwinds in August; that said, we continued to see declines in traffic and material discounting as the beginning of the school year neared, which we believe served to damper any material upside on both the margins and sales front.
– Given the relatively weak economic and mall traffic picture, we believe there is limited upside to our comp projections; we would be very surprised if, in the first month of FQ307, any major retailer shifted earnings guidance.

Thomas Filandro, analyst with Susquehanna Financial Group:
– Following a challenging July selling period that was meaningfully dampened by weak mall traffic, in part due to later back-to-school (BTS) starts and shifts in tax-free holidays, we witnessed a clear reversal in performance during early August supporting a modest sector comp increase of 1-3 percent (vs. 0.7 percent).
– As specialists report same-store sales for the month of August, we believe investors will breathe a sigh of relief as it becomes evident shoppers have not completely turned off the apparel and accessory “spending spigot.”
– Given the clear concern that broader economic headwinds, as well as headline news regarding the ongoing credit crunch have dampened shopper enthusiasm to spend, we see the release of August sales as a positive catalyst for sector stocks, and are therefore more bullish heading into the monthly sales reports.

Charles Grom, analyst with J.P. Morgan Securities:
– While consumer spending headwinds from ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) resets should continue through early 2008, we see some bright spots on the retail front (e.g. pickup in real consumer spending, drop in gas prices, good employment stats)
– With this in mind, August SSS (same-store sales) and the BTS season will serve as an important barometer for the consumer (and the upcoming holiday season).
–By and large we expect in-line prints from our Overweight ideas — JC Penney, Costco, Target, and BJ’s Wholesale — and would continue to highlight these stocks as uses of funds.

Dorothy Lakner, analyst with CIBC World Markets:
– As softline retailers report August comps, we expect a big pickup from July, with strengthening as August progressed. We heard mall traffic was positive for most of August as shoppers hit stores for latest back to school assortments, and in the South, took advantage of later tax free holidays.
– Key to success is still strong product. In teens, we see American Eagle Outfitters and Zumiez as showcasing best mix for BTS. Abercrombie & Fitch looked improved (and busy), with new bottoms and trend-right tops. Gymboree looked best in kids, while Children’s Place marked down entire store for major Labor Day weekend sale.
–While macro worries continue to weigh on retail stocks, we advise sticking with stories where product and fundamentals remain strong and valuations compelling. We’d be buyers of high-quality names heading into fall: American Eagle Outfitters, Volcom in teens, Gymboree in kids, Nordstrom in luxury; Coldwater Creek and Urban Outfitters in women’s.