With less than a week to go before Thanksgiving, retailers are hoping a dose of turkey and some stuffing will lull shoppers into a spending mood during the three-day holiday shopping weekend.

Retailers have tried to get shoppers spending early this year, rolling out holiday deals in September and October, but they are headed into the Thanksgiving weekend on edge, worried that consumers will keep a tight hold on their purse strings in the face of a shaky economic environment and lack of must-have products.

To wake shoppers out of their Thanksgiving food comas, some, including Wal-Mart and Circuit City will offer special deals on their Web sites on Thanksgiving day, while others will open at midnight Thanksgiving night to jump-start the weekend madness.

The first 1,500 customers who arrive at King of Prussia Mall in Pennsylvania on Black Friday with a special voucher printed from the mall’s Web site will get a survival bag, complete with bottled water and chocolate covered pretzels. 

Wal-Mart’s Sam’s Club warehouses will open at 5:00 a.m. and offer a continental breakfast, while Best Buy will hand out coffee and doughnuts to those shoppers who line up at its stores in the wee hours.

Retailers’ full plans for the three-day Thanksgiving shopping weekend have still not fully been unveiled. Wal-Mart is planning to reveal its holiday weekend blitz plans on Monday - stay tuned for more!

(Read more about which retailers might be winners and losers this holiday)

Check out more economic trouble brewing.
 
First it was Coach warning about weak traffic in its U.S. stores in October. Then it was upscale department store chain Nordstrom seeing an unexpected drop in sales in October.
 
And now Starbucks sees its traffic fall for the first time in its history.
 
The premium coffee seller said U.S. same-store traffic fell 1 percent in the quarter, as economic worries and two percent price hikes spooked customers.
 
The company also forecast 2008 earnings below many analysts’ estimates and said it would only open 2,500 stores for the year, down from its target of 2,600.
 
With rising fuel and food prices and the U.S. housing downturn, the slowing traffic at Starbucks might be the latest sign that consumers, the vanguard of the U.S. economy, may no longer be willing or able to spend willy-nilly through hard times.
 
“This frankly proves there are no sacred cows in the retail world right now” William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Ann Taylor third-quarter profit rises; cuts forecast
 
Ahold names John Rishton as new CEO
 
Kohl’s posts lower profit, cuts forecast

Hasbro Inc apparently got its lightsabers crossed with Lucasfilm Ltd, making a splashy announcement during its fall 2007 analyst meeting on Thursday that a new Star Wars animated film was set to be released on 8-8-08.

The only problem — Lucasfilm says there’s no such definite plan.

Lynne Hale, the senior director of Lucasfilm Ltd, the entertainment company founded by George Lucas, said the company is indeed aiming to release a “Star Wars: Clone Wars” computer-generated imagery television series in fall 2008. 

She said it is a possibility to launch the series with some sort of theatrical release, but that “it is so early to even think about it.”

“It’s one of the many things we’re discussing, but there are no decisions yet,” Hale said. “We’re just finding creative ways to launch a breakthrough television series.”

Hasbro, which licenses the rights to make products based on Star Wars characters, told analysts that it had “big news” and stated the movie would be released on Aug. 8, 2008, and that it would be in theaters for some time.

“It’ll be like nothing you’ve ever seen before,” Hasbro Chief Operating Officer Brian Goldner said about a television series would quickly follow in the fall, noting the TV show would likely debut in primetime.

It has been rumored that a CGI series called “Star Wars: Clone Wars” would debut as a TV series in the fall of 2008 but not many further details have been available.

Clone Wars chronologically takes place during the three-year time period between the films Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones and Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. The story was originally a two-dimensional animated TV series on Cartoon Network from 2003 to 2005.

Hale said the new series will also take place between Episode II and Episode III, but is a completely new Star Wars project. “We’re thinking of a lot of innovative ways to introduce it,” she said.

 A Hasbro spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

(Photo credit: Reuters/Ray Stubblebine)

Could two longtime home-goods retail rivals possibly wind up on the same team? One analyst raises that possibility now that Edward Lampert, chairman of Sears Holdings, has bought shares in Home Depot.

On Wednesday, a regulatory filing disclosed that Lampert’s ESL Investments hedge fund bought 16.7 million shares, or about a 1 percent stake, in Home Depot, the world’s largest home improvement retailer.

“One can look at the investment as just a position in an underperforming, undervalued stock,” Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter said in a research note on Thursday. “However, things are never that simple with ESL.”

Balter goes on to say that there could be “significant synergies” should these companies, which currently compete against each other for appliance and tool customers, be allowed to partner.

“Imagine Home Depot getting Craftsman (tools) and Kenmore (appliances) into their 2,000 stores and Sears getting Ridgid (tools) into their mix,” Balter wrote. Craftsman and Kenmore are Sears brands, while Ridgid is sold at Home Depot.

Balter added that although a combination of these two was unlikely given ESL’s limited ownership as well as potential antitrust issues, he said the stock buy “should help focus investor attention” on Home Depot’s real estate value.

Lampert, who presided over the 2005 merger of Sears, Roebuck and Kmart, gained favor for making Kmart shareholders rich by selling real estate. He has been long rumored to have had an interest in Home Depot.

“We highly value all of our investors, but we don’t comment on specific transactions,” Home Depot spokeswoman Paula Drake said when asked about Lampert’s purchase.

Earlier this week, Home Depot reported a 27 percent fall in third-quarter profit and forecast a steeper fall in full-year earnings as the weak housing market hurt sales.

Photo: Reuters

It may not be all doom and gloom in the U.S. retail sector this holiday, according to one retail consulting firm.

Customer Growth Partners is expecting 5.0 percent to 5.4 percent annual growth for the holidays, in line with average growth rates of the past decade. 

The forecast compared with the National Retail Federation, which is expecting holiday sales to rise  4 percent to $474.5 billion – marking the slowest holiday sales growth since 2002.

“As we said after 2005’s Hurricane Katrina, when gasoline prices rose well above $3/gallon, Americans are far more resilient that the experts expect,” said CGP president Craig Johnson, “And just as sales rose 7 percent at holiday 2005 despite Wall Street expectations of a low-growth Christmas, 2007 will see over 5 percent holiday sales growth, held down only by a stubborn housing slump.”

He is expecting it to be a “Tech Christmas” with strong demand for Apple products and the Nintendo Wii.

“Apple is today’s leading fashion icon,” Johnson said.  “The ‘It’ items this year are not handbags but iPhones and Wii’s.” 

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out a new study that says U.S. shoppers are increasingly considering the fun factor when choosing where to buy groceries.

Once obsessed with all things “super-sized”, U.S. consumers are tiring of the big-box approach, according to the study conducted by SIRS, a market research firm based in Ft. Mitchell, Kentucky and featured in the National Retail Federation’s magazine Stores.

According to the study, 35 percent of consumers said they preferred an enjoyable shopping experience over traditional factors such as price and convenience, up from 30 percent in 2002.

Wegman’s, Publix and Bloom got the top marks from shoppers, while Wal-Mart’s rating declined.

“The decline of the attractiveness of the big box stores, the aging of America, the growth in the importance of convenience, personalized service and the emotional consumer ‘where to shop drivers’ are causing a tipping point going in favor of smaller stores for the first time in over 20 years, ” said Chris Ohlinger, CEO of SIRS.

Also in the basket:

Macy’s posts profit but pares sales forecast

Walgreen considering slowing store opening pace

Sainsbury H1 profit up 27 pct, at top of range

Lulemon falls after report on seaweed clothing (Reuters, NY Times)

Holiday sales, sure — but don’t expect steals (Wall Street Journal)

McCormick to buy Unilever’s Lawry’s for $605 mln

(Photo: Reuters)
 

Check out the retail earnings.

Wal-Mart has been struggling to grow same-store sales, but it still posted a larger-than-expected 8 percent rise in quarterly profit.
 
Tighter expense controls and efforts to draw holiday shoppers in earlier than ever before helped lift profits for the world’s largest retailer.

Still, fourth-quarter same-store sales are expected to be sluggish, with Wal-Mart forecasting flat to up 2 percent.

Home Depot, meanwhile, is still suffering form the U.S. housing slump, posting a 27 percent drop in third-quarter profit.

The home improvement retailer saw sales fall 6.2 percent at stores open at least a year and also said it now expects an 11 percent drop this year in earnings per share from continuing operations.

“The problem HD faces is that they are trying to reinvest in people and infrastructure as macro demand deteriorates,” said Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter. “The combination can be ugly as their 11 percent (decline) in (operating)  earnings points to.”

Oh, and the company’s $22.5 billion stock repurchase plan? It won’t be completed this year, due to uncertainty in the credit markets and weakness in the housing sector, the company said.
 
Also in the basket: 
 
Fossil profit tops view, boosts full-year outlookConsumer satisfaction dips: survey
 
Holiday gift card sales seen up 6 percent
 
Russian brand eyes U.S. (WWD, subscription required)
 
A health plan for Wal-Mart: less stinginess (NY Times)

(Photo: Reuters)

** Sun Capital Securities Group is baring its teeth at takeover target Kellwood, owner of clothing brands Nautica, Baby Phat and Hollywould. Sun said it was prepared to pony up the entire $544 million from its own capital and its proposal had no financing contingency. Kellwood rejected Sun's unsolicited takeover bid last month. It posted a second-quarter loss and slashed its full-year earnings forecast due to caution about a slowdown in consumer spending. It also recently announced a restructuring to have fewer operating divisions. The Wall Street Journal notes Kellwood has a number of rules that could complicate a hostile Sun tender or proxy contest.  (VF Corp. owns Nautica, not Kellwood).

** After half its market value was erased on Monday, investors are pondering the future Internet broker E*Trade Financial. TD Ameritrade Holding has already expressed an interest, and the New York Times reports some say it could try again but others doubt it will would want to revisit talks amid the recent turmoil. 
 
** Barr Pharmaceuticals may looking for European supplements. "I think it would be more of the small pieces that complement or add to what we already have, as opposed to some new geographic expansion," said Chief Executive Officer Bruce Downey at the Reuters Health Summit. Barr bought Croatia's Pliva for $2.5 billion last year, making it a world-class generic drug company. Barr now has expanded its sales into Germany, Croatia, Russia and Poland. The drug company released disappointing results last week, which were hit by soaring sales. The Motley Fool said the results were also clouded by the Pliva acquisition.  
 
** The Washington Post reports powerful U.S. dealmakers are going to China to keep the buyout boom going. It cites Dealogic data showing that while buyouts were slowing in the United States because of turmoil in the credit markets, deals involving U.S. private-equity firms in China reached $3.1 billion in June, a record month. "In three years, U.S. private-equity money in China has grown almost sixfold," it said.  
 

Avian flu? Mad cow disease? These don’t seem to pose a problem for hungry U.S. consumers.

But a finger in their chili or a rat scurrying around the floor at their local Taco Bell? Now that’s going to crimp sales.

During a panel discussion at a Standard & Poor’s Retail & Consumer products conference in New York on Monday, analysts were asked how events - like the detection of mad cow or an outbreak of avian flu - tend to hurt sales at U.S. restaurants.

Diane Shand, an analyst at S&P, said consumers often shrug off worries about avian flu or mad cow, which typically affect overseas markets.

But events that hit close to home — like a woman claiming she found a finger in her chili at Wendy’s (which was later found to be a scam) or a video of rats running around a Taco Bell in Manhattan’s Greenwich Village — now that is a problem.

In this world of YouTube, where videos can take on a life of their own, Shand said the impact of these events are extended — as videos can be played over and over and over –  making it harder for companies to recover and get sales back on track

The Taco Bell in Greenwich Village has closed — but the video lives on YouTube.

(Photo: Reuters)

Check Out shoppers doing what they have been doing for most of the year: Procrastinating.

According to a new survey from the National Retail Federation, 71.4 percent of consumers have less than ten percent of their holiday shopping completed. Young adults aged 18 to 24 are the least prepared, according to the survey, with three-fourths of them finished with less than 10 percent of their shopping.

The procrastination comes despite retailer’s herculean efforts to get shoppers into their stores earlier than ever. Wal-Mart cut prices on popular toys Sept 30., Toys R Us is already promoting door busting deals and Old Navy is holding a 40 percent off outerwear sale this week. 

But just as they did with the back-to-school season, shoppers will shop when they are ready, not when retailers want them to.

When they do decide to hit the stores, what will they be  buying? The NRF survey found that 57.2 percent of consumers plan to buy clothing or clothing accessories, while 57. 1 percent will look for books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games when purchasing gifts.

Gift cards continue to be popular, with 56.6 percent of consumers saying they plan on buying gift cards this year.

Other popular items include toys, and consumer electronic or computer related accessories.

Also in the basket:

Constellation plans to buy Fortune’s wine business
Tyson Foods turns profit, sees weakness in ‘08
Hershey Trust forces overhaul of Hershey board
Hanesbrands’ Big Plan: Stretching for Growth Via Marketing, Sampling (WWD)

(Photo: Reuters)