What a difference a year makes. Mattel Inc’s T.M.X Elmo was the darling of last year’s holiday season, as it burst onto the market in September and became a key driver for the toy industry in its most important time of year.

This year’s Elmo doll — the T.M.X eXtra Special Edition – is having trouble duplicating its predecessor’s success, according to B.M.O Capital Markets analyst Gerrick Johnson.

“We think this year’s Elmo doll … is selling below plan. We see plenty of Elmo at retail,” Johnson wrote in a research note. “And on many of the Toys “R” Us end caps there is a sign that limits customers to only two dolls per family. Clearly Toys “R” Us was expecting brisker sales.”

Since Tickle Me Elmo’s 1996 debut, there have been numerous incarnations of the plush doll, including “Knows Your Name Elmo,” which greets children by name.

This year’s doll — which is available only through the end of the year – comes with special features that include a tickle sequence that causes the little red monster to fall to the ground laughing and kicking while singing, “Elmo’s ticklish, ticklish, and he’s laughing like he never laughed before.”

But because there is so much excess inventory at Toys “R” Us, Johnson said his team thinks the doll shouldn’t be called the eXtra Special Edition Elmo — it should be branded the  eXcess Inventory Elmo instead.

Mattel and its Fisher Price unit did not immediately return calls seeking comment.

Photo Source: Fisher Price