On Tuesday, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world’s largest retailer said its first-quarter profit rose 7 percent. U.S. shoppers headed to the discount retailer to load up on basics, like groceries and health care items. They also bought electronics as they try to spend more time amusing themselves at home instead of burning through costly gas driving around town.

But Wal-Mart gave a cautious view for Q2. It forecast earnings per share of 78 cents to 81 cents, while analysts on average are expecting 81 cents. And it said second-quarter U.S. same-store sales could be flat to up two percent.

Wal-Mart’s finance chief, Tom Schoewe, told Reuters the retailer is being “appropriately conservative” with its forecast, unsure of how much tax rebate money will be spent in its stores or how well consumers will hold up amid the struggling economy.

But Wall Street is betting that caution now will mean upside in the future.

Here are some comments from analysts on Wal-Mart’s forecast:

Uta Werner, analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein, in a note: “Given WMT’s strong first quarter performance and management’s relative optimism and positive tone on the pre-recorded call, we are surprised by the company’s seemingly conservative 2Q09 outlook.  While we appreciate that it is difficult to quantify the precise impact of stimulus checks, we nonetheless would expect at least some benefit to sales at the stores and Sam’s, and find both EPS and comps guidance surprisingly conservative.”

Neil Currie, analyst, UBS, in an interview with Reuters:  “With positive traffic and improving momentum in apparel … and the stores looking better and better all the time, I think they’re in good shape to at least be on the higher end of expectations.”

Adrianne Shapira, analyst, Goldman Sachs, in a note: “We’d note 2Q EPS could prove conservative as it does not include the potential benefit from the fiscal stimulus package. Therefore, much like 1Q when on the heels of better monthly comps, WMT was able to raise guidance intra-quarter, we believe setting an achievable and potentially beatable bar in today’s tough environment is the prudent way to provide guidance. As such, we would view any pullback in shares as a buying opportunity as we believe WMT remains best positioned in today’s tougher macro with potential upside to EPS from the fiscal stimulus.”

(Reuters Photo: Schoewe has his costume torn away by members of the Anti-Gravity dance troupe before addressing theWal-Mart Annual Shareholders Meeting in Fayetteville June 2007)