Shop Talk

Retailers, consumers and prices

Check Out Line: 2009 doesn’t look that great, either

July 9, 2008

clouds.jpgCheck out what Morgan Stanley is saying about retailers and restaurant owners.
It isn’t good. Morgan Stanley is cutting its 2009 earnings estimates and price targets, saying its retail sales lead indicator dropped 1.1 percentage points in June, and the key reasons — home prices, unemployment and food and fuel inflation — are not likely to improve anytime soon.
The indicator, which uses a bunch of factors to predict future retail sales, is down 3.7 percentage points from a year ago and the outlook for the second half of 2008 looks grim, Morgan Stanley said in a research report.
“We see the likelihood of a decelerating 2008 carrying over into 2009 growing,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that the tax rebate checks making their way into the system will not be enough to offset macroeconomic headwinds in 2009.
Tax rebate checks “may actually have a pull forward effect that could make conditions worse for retailers into 2009,” Morgan Stanley said.
Also in the basket:
Chico’s June same-store sales fall 12.9 percent
M&S’s Rose faces stormy showdown with shareholders 
(Photo: Reuters)


Just to reinforce this argument, check out some of the Consumer Confidence index figures at : -market-and-economic-bottom-on-cards.htm l

Things are looking quite gloomy for the near term in all sectors of the economy. Espically for retailers. However I think 09 will start showing some good growth.


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