Shop Talk

Check out the latest retail forecast.

The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to fall for the second consecutive year, but this year’s drop should not be as steep as it was last year.

The retail industry trade group expects retail sales in November and December combined to slip 1 percent to $437.6 billion.  Last year, such sales fell 3.4 percent to $441.97 billion.

Last month, the International Council of Shopping Centers took a more bullish tone.  That group said U.S. holiday season sales should rise about 1 percent to 2 percent.

Taking a look back, analysts expect to see that September sales at stores open at least a year fell 1 percent, on average, at the 30 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters.  Meanwhile, U.S. chain store sales fell 1.9 percent last week, according to data from Redbook Research.

We’ll find out about September sales later this week, but even Santa will have to wait a few more months to see if either trade group was right about holiday spending.

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(Reuters photo)