Americans spend 10 percent of their disposable income on food, including restaurant meals and snacks, according to U.S. Dept. of Agriculture figures.

That reliable needle may start to shift as food prices rise. Globally, food prices have jumped 75 percent since 2000, the World Bank calculates. Look at the graphic on the left for another view; the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organization figures food prices spiked 23 percent in 2007. See full data here and note the surge in diary prices. The rising costs are affecting trade and subsidies polices and sparking unrest in parts of the world. (More in the Reuters special report on Agflation)

For some Americans, the rising food prices has meant a pullback on spending on clothes, jewelry or home furnishings, retail reporter Nicole Maestri details today, noting that Wal-Mart's grocery business and its emphasis on low prices is spurring a resurgence at its U.S. stores and in its stock price.

Have rising food prices changed your shopping list? What are you pulling back on?

(Image credit: FAO)

Check out the bearish Coach CEO using the “R” word.
 
While some retail executives … we’re talking to you, Pier 1 CFO Cary Turner … blame the media for continuing to talk about recession, Lew Frankfort admitted what many economists are already saying.
 
“My view is that we’re already in a consumer recession,” the Coach chief executive told Reuters. “We do need a tax stimulus package.”
 
Pegging a recession is dicey business. The National Bureau of Economic Research determines when a recession starts — but that finding usually is not made until several months after it starts. (An explanation can be found here.)
 
That is why the U.S. economy could already be in a recession, without us knowing about it. And Frankfort isn’t the only one who thinks this is a recession.
 
For example, on Tuesday, Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, who manges the world’s biggest bond fund, also said the economy was probably in a recession that began in December.
 
“It’s simply now a consumer-led mild recession that will show up in the first- and second-quarter GDP numbers in the negative — with a minus sign,” Gross said.
 
Also in the basket:
 
“Comfort foods” to resist U.S. slowdown: PepsiCo CEO
 
Constellation to sell Almaden, Inglenook brands 
 
(Reuters photo: Frankfort in a happier time)

It was two weeks before Christmas, and all through the House (of Representatives), Lawmakers were stirring (frantically) trying to get a bill passed reforming the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Oh, I’ll give up.

But Massachusetts Rep. Edward Markey read the following satire of the famed Christmas poem to the full House Energy and Commerce Committee on Thursday. Many lawmakers smiled indulgently while Chairman John Dingell, the veteran Michigan congressman who gives life to the word “irascible,” sat stonefaced.

Some staff and lobbyists applauded when Markey finished. We here produce it in its entirety:

THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS
(with apologies to Clement Clarke Moore)

‘Twas two weeks before Christmas, when all through the house
Mothers and fathers were starting to grouse;
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
With hopes that safe products would soon be stuffed there.
The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
Wishing for toys that did not contain lead.

And Ma had just disappointed the tots
When she had to throw out their new Aquadots.
Then out at the CPSC there arose such a clatter,
The House and the Senate asked what was the matter.

We had several hearings with the Chairman, Nancy Nord.
Her answers left us, frankly, quite floored.
She didn’t want money, she didn’t need staff.
Her protestations, in short, made us laugh.

Then, what to our wondering eyes should appear,
But a CPSC bill for Congress to clear
This bill has good points, on that we agree.
It adds needed money and new F.T.E’s.
It makes sure that kids’ toys will not contain lead,
It helps to ensure they are tested instead.

Test Barbie! Diego! And poisonous Thomas!
Mattel, Hasbro and Disney! You all must now promise
To test your new products! Be sure to comply!
Get toys off store shelves when things go awry!

This morning we meet as the lobbyists try
To convince all the members NOT to vote “aye.”
They say NO to amendments to be sure nationwide.
All children are safe on amusement park rides
They fight for the industry’s lawsuits in court
To prevent the release of toy safety reports.

As for plans to require that all dangers be known
The lobbyists all shake their heads and they groan.
And others who try to mandate recalls
Their efforts may not be successful at all
Today as we work on this new safety bill.

I hope that we all can agree that we will -
Say AYE to amendments that make the bill stronger
So that toys that are toxic can’t be sold any longer.
Let’s welcome rides that are scary and fast
But let CPSC in to check them at last.
Let’s roll up our sleeves, and clean up store shelves
So families can focus on reindeer and elves.

And to these families we’ll say once we finish this fight,
“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good-night!”

– Reporting by Diane Bartz

The following table lists select U.S. retail companies that have reported November sales at stores open at least a year.

The table has the consensus same-store sales estimate#, the actual number reported by companies^. The table also includes the total sales reported by the company in November and the change from last year in percentage terms.

The consensus estimate figure is compiled by Reuters Estimates.

Company	Same-Store Estimate#	Sales Actual	Tota lChange (pct)	Sales Value
Discount Stores
Wal-Mart <WMT.N>##	1.2	1.5	8.4	$31.72 bln
Sales were strong in grocery and prescription drugs, but lagged in its struggling home and apparel businesses.
Target <TGT.N>**	10.8	10.8	16.7	$5.97 bln
Sales were strongest in automotive, health care and consumable goods while they were weak in toys, seasonal holiday items and jewelry. Home and apparel category sales also fell short of expectations.
Costco <COST.O>	6.6	9.0	13.0	$5.72 bln
Higher gasoline prices helped the largest U.S. warehouse club. November sales were strong in its deli and cooler business, sporting goods, health and beauty, toys and automotive. TV unit sales were strong, but overall results were weakened as prices fell from last year.
BJ’s Wholesale <BJ.N>	4.0	7.7	11.7	$746.3 mln
Sales were aided by higher gasoline prices, but hurt by the absence of pharmacy sales. Sales were strongest in categories like meat, produce, snacks, health and beauty aids, TVs and video games. Sales were weaker in areas like home furniture, jewelry, toys and recorded media.
TJX Cos. <TJX.N>	4.3	7.0	10.0	$1.80 bln
Apparel sales were strong across the board thanks to cold weather during the month. Ski wear, footwear and accessories did well. Home goods sales lagged during the month.
Family Dollar <FDO.N>	1.7	3.4	-0.1	$559.3 mln
Sales of discretionary items fell, but rose in most consumable categories.
Strongest region during the month was the mid-Atlantic. Dresses, accessories and shoes were top-performing businesses, while home goods sales lagged.
Department Stores
Kohl’s <KSS.N>	6.0	10.2	20.0	$2.02 bln
Sales of cold weather apparel such as fleece and outwear, and cold weather accessories were very strong. Accessories and children’s products led sales for the period.
JC Penney <JCP.N>	3.8	2.6	7.6	$2.05 bln
Seasonal apparel merchandise and gift assortments sold well during the Black Friday shopping weekend. November sales were strongest in children’s merchandise and fine jewelry. Home goods sales remained weak.
Macy’s <M.N>	7.5	13.4	13.9	$2.71 bln
Sales benefited from cold weather during much of November and a calendar shift that added sales during the period. Consumers responded well to holiday season offerings both at Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s.
Nordstrom <JWN.N>	3.6	8.7	7.4	$804.9 mln
Designer goods sold well in November, while the strongest-performing regions were the U.S. Midwest, South and Northeast.
Saks <SKS.N>	12.2	25.7	26.3	$347.6 mln
The strongest categories at its Saks Fifth Avenue were women’s shoes, handbags, fine jewelry among others, while designer eveningwear, bridal and cosmetics were among the weaker ones.
Dillard’s <DDS.N>	2.1	1.0	2.0	$559.3 mln
Sales in the Central region were slightly above average. Sales were consistent with trend in the Western region and slightly below trend in the Eastern region. The sales performance trend in the juniors’ and children’s apparel category was significantly below trend.
Sales were helped by double digit sales increase in cold weather-related merchandise categories and a calender shift that moved the week after Thanksgiving into November.
Apparel
Gap <GPS.N>	4.6	Flat	11.0	$1.54 bln
The Gap store products continued to gain acceptance with customers, and kids and babies merchandise performed better than adult merchandise.
Limited <LTD.N>	4.9	7.0	-8.4	$858.7 mln
Both Victoria’s secret and Bath and Body Works were challenged by negative traffic levels, and the company forecast another decline in December.
Abercrombie <ANF.N>	1.5	2.0	25.0	$352.3 mln
Total company direct-to-consumer net sales rose 78 percent to $32.8 million.
Hot Topic <HOTT.O>~~	6.7	8.3	1.3	$56.2 mln
Year-to-date same-store sales fell 4 percent, while total company sales fell 0.5 percent.
American Eagle <AEO.N>~~	1.3	Flat	16.0	$285.8 mln
November sales reflected uneven store traffic throughout the month. Yet traffic was strong over the Thanksgiving weekend, which averaged a mid single-digit comp increase.
Aeropostale <ARO.N>	4.8	6.6	28.4	$192.2 mln
November ended with same store sales at the high end of the company’s outlook, with gross margins above last year and inventories well controlled.
Pacific Sunwear <PSUN.O>	2.9	2.3	3.6	$120.9 mln
By concept, PacSun same-store sales rose 7 percent and demo fell 30.6 percent.
Ann Taylor <ANN.N>	2.6	3.9	12.2	$209.2 mln
Sales were helped by the timing of a promotion, although trends worsened as the month progressed.
Sales were helped by the timing of a promotion, although trends worsened as the month progressed.
Other Specialty
Sharper Image <SHRP.O>	9.3	8.0	-9.0	$44.7 mln
On a year-to-date basis comparable store sales decreased 14 percent. Total company sales fell 29 percent to $255.5 million.

##For U.S. stores, excluding fuel
**Figures for Target are not adjusted for calendar shift. After adjusting for the calendar shift, four analysts on average
expected the company to post a 3 percent rise in same-store sales. Target reported a rise of 1.1 percent in same-store sales after
adjusting for the shift.
^Bon-Ton Stores is for Bon-Ton and Carson’s combined
~~Reported on Wednesday

When Rep. Joe Barton, a Texas Republican, gets up to talk about product safety, there’s one certainty: young Jack Kevin Barton will come up. 

There have been dribs and drabs of talk about the toddler at previous Capitol Hill events about unsafe toys, but the floodgates opened wide on Tuesday.

During a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing where other lawmakers assailed the acting head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission for trips made at industry expense, delved into how trace amounts of lead are calculated and other weighty matters, the 58-year-old Barton told anecdotes about his son.

Here’s an excerpt from the folksy Texan’s opening remarks at the hearing, which his staff also distributed to reporters at the hearing and e-mailed as a press release:

I think everybody on the subcommittee knows that I have a two-year-old son, Jack Kevin Barton. … These little tykes are so inquisitive and so adventuresome that you really have to be smart to keep them safe.

I’ll give you an example. … Last weekend my wife had to go run some errands and while she wasn’t sure I was capable of taking care of Jack by myself, I was given that opportunity since we couldn’t get a babysitter. He brought me a bag of microwave popcorn that he had gotten out of the cupboard. I was watching a football game. I said, ‘No, Jack, your mother doesn’t want you to have popcorn. Put it back.’ He toddles off.

I’m watching the game and all of a sudden I hear this ‘beep, beep, beep’ coming from the kitchen. He had taken the popcorn back into the kitchen, got a chair, pulled the chair over to the built-in microwave, which is about six feet above the floor, climbed up on the chair, opened the microwave, put the popcorn in, figured out how to hit the ‘popcorn’ button and pushed the darn button. Now, it was in the cellophane and the cellophane started popping and burning so I rushed in and of course he was just proud as punch that he had figured out how to do microwave popcorn, even though he didn’t know that he was supposed to undo the cellophane. 

He’s also brought me a childproof medicine bottle that he’s taken the cap off of in the last two weeks. He was pretty proud that he was able to do that.”

During Barton’s rambling comments, the faces of other committee members were impassive — likely a skill honed during many years of graduate school, law school and congressional debate.

But Barton wasn’t done.

When the testimony turned to recalled cribs, Barton took the opportunity to let the committee, a panel of expert witnesses and the bored press about how difficult it was to keep his son in in bed. “He’s just like a little eel getting out of that crib.” 

– Reporting by Diane Bartz

– Photo credit: Reuters/Jessica Rinaldi

U.S. retailers had better-than-expected sales in August.

But with the U.S. housing meltdown, higher gas prices and rising costs for things like food, were the August sales just a one-month blip?

“Shoppers were not spooked like stock market investors by fears of a credit crunch. But that only means that the fallout for households will hit home more gradually in the coming months,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist for TNS Retail Forward.

Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics said that 64 percent of retailers beat expectations for the month, but also said that does not signal a trend.

As you ponder the pace of sales in the upcoming holiday season, here are retailers’ August sales results, compared with expectations.

---

The following table lists select U.S. retail companies that have reported August sales at stores open at least a year, a key retail measure also known as same-store sales.The table has the range of analysts’ estimates* and the actual change in same-store sales reported by the companies^. The consensus estimate# is the average of analysts’ mean estimate.Data is compiled by Reuters Estimates.All figures expressed in percentage change over the same period last year except number of estimates.

		AUGUST-07		AUGUST-07
		Analysts’	Same-store	No. of	Same-store
Company	Symbol	estimates*	sales(est)#	Estimates	sales (act)^
Wal-Mart##	<WMT.N>	0.0 to 2.0	1.6	9	3.1
Target	<TGT.N>	4.0 to 6.0	4.9	11	6.1
Costco^^	<COST.O>	4.0 to 8.0	5.6	13	2.0
BJ’s Wholesale^^	<BJ.N>	-0.5 to 4.0	1.4	11	1.4
TJX Cos.	<TJX.N>	2.0 to 5.0	3.8	9	4.0
Family Dollar	<FDO.N>	0.0 to 2.0	1.3	9	1.0
Ross Stores	<ROST.O>	2.0 to 4.0	2.9	8	4.0
Kohl’s	<KSS.N>	0.0 to 6.0	3.0	14	-0.6
JC Penney^^	<JCP.N>	-8.0 to -2.0	-5.2	13	-4.0
Macy’s	<M.N>	-3.0 to 3.0	0.0	12	2.4
Nordstrom	<JWN.N>	4.0 to 8.0	6.3	16	6.6
Saks	<SKS.N>	5.0 to 14.0	9.1	9	18.2
Dillard’s	<DDS.N>	-6.0 to 1.0	-3.0	7	-5.0
Bon-Ton Stores^	<BONT.O>	-1.0 to 2.0	0.0	3	1.3
Gap	<GPS.N>	-6.0 to 1.0	2.3	17	-1.0
Limited	<LTD.N>	-2.0 to 3.0	1.2	14	1.0
Abercrombie	<ANF.N>	-1.0 to 5.0	2.2	18	6.0
Hot Topic^^	<HOTT.O>	-6.0 to -1.0	2.5	10	-1.1
Chico’s FAS^^	<CHS.N>	-9.0 to -1.0	7.3	15	-9.3
American Eagle^^	<AEO.N>	3.0 to 9.0	6.1	20	9.0
Aeropostale	<ARO.N>	-1.0 to 5.0	2.5	10	1.7
Pacific Sunwear	<PSUN.O>	0.0 to 4.0	1.8	14	9.6
Ann Taylor	<ANN.N>	-3.2 to 1.0	1.6	12	2.9
Children’s Place	<PLCE.O>	-3.0 to 4.0	0.5	6	5.0
Sharper Image	<SHRP.O>	-15.0 to -10.0	-12.5	2	16.0

##For U.S. stores, excluding fuel

^Bon-Ton Stores estimate is for Bon-Ton and Carson’s combined

^^Reported on Wednesday

Gift cards. They’re not just for Christmas anymore.

Back-to-school time, the second-busiest shopping season of the year, is upon us, and companies such as American Express are turning to promotions to entice bargain-seeking parents and their offspring.

From now until Sept. 30, anyone who buys two American Express Gift Cards will receive a free back-to-school card worth $25, which can be used at Banana Republic, Old Navy, Gap and Linens ‘n Things. The card can only be used for three months after the date of issue.

The promotion is part of an effort by American Express to tap into increasing  gift card use at other times of the year, said Robert Sherman,  American Express spokesman.

To receive the card, shoppers who buy any two American Express gift cards at participating locations must complete a rebate form and send it in. Participating retailers include A&P, Albertsons, Carrs Food Store, CVS, Dominick’s, Duane Reade, Eagle, Genuardi’s, Kings, Pak N Save, Pavilions, Randalls, Rite Aid, Safeway, Simon David, Tom Thumb, Vons, Wawa and Winn-Dixie.

American Express gift cards are available in denominations from $25 to $500 and can be redeemed at U.S. retailers and restaurants that accept American Express Cards.

– Written by Regan E. Doherty

Ever since the U.S. Federal Trade Commission revealed the chief executive of  Whole Foods Market Inc.  had posted anonymously about his company and rivals on an Internet message board, investors have been wondering about the long term impact on the company’s stock.

According to short-interest data released late Tuesday by the Nasdaq, a growing number of investors are betting the company will not escape unscathed. 

Short interest in Whole Foods stock – a measure of investors betting its price will fall — rose more than 27 percent in July, according to the Exchange.

That increase of 5.3 million shorted shares brought the company’s total short interest to 24.4 million shares, or about 17.3 percent of the company’s shares outstanding. 

Mackey apologized to shareholders for the messages he posted on a Yahoo! chat forum under an alias, but the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has already launched a probe into the matter. 

Short sellers in Whole Foods stock — which hit its lowest level in nearly three years on Wednesday — may be eagerly anticipating the probe’s results.

Meanwhile, Whole Foods CEO John Mackey is communicating  a little bit less nowadays.  A note on his CEO blog on the Whole Foods website says the blog is on hold during the company’s internal investigation.

 –By Emily Chasan

Readers eagerly awaiting the arrival of what may be the most anticipated book release in history are expected to show remarkable self-restraint.
The latest and last instalment of the Harry Potter series arrives in stores at 12:01 am July 21, but research by Wal-Mart shows that despite suspense over the ending, most readers are planning on keeping their curiosity in check.
Nearly 9 out of 10 intended purchasers say they’ll read straight through to the end rather than skip to the final pages to find out what happens, according to a telephone survey of Americans age 16 and older conducted on July 17 by Wal-Mart.
Nearly 17,000 people have already vowed to keep the ending a secret at www.makethepledge.net
About 28 million people say they plan to buy the book this weekend, according to the survey. That’s equivalent to the number of people in the states of New York and Michigan combined.
And, the research suggests that America is truly a nation of optimists. 58 percent of those planning to buy the book believe Harry lives at the end.
Wal-Mart is doing its part to keep the secret safe - over 50,000 ear plugs will be distributed Friday at Wal-Mart stores where the retailer predicts the largest sales will happen. The secret of who dies will not be discussed at the registers, the company said.

–Written by Regan E. Doherty