America has breathed a sigh of relief since April, as the summer selling season kicked in and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit nudged consumers off the fence into the most affordable market in years. These factors, along with easy financing from the Federal Housing Administration, was the first leg up for the "W," said Lisa Marquis Jackson, a vice president at John Burns.

The onset of the weaker selling months, a building pipeline of foreclosures and expiration of the tax-credit on Nov. 30 will likely bring rising prices upturn to a halt, creating a "false peak" and fresh downturn, the group says. Federal efforts have slowed foreclosures but have not addressed many issues including unemployment and underwater mortgages, leaving a heavy "shadow inventory" set to knock prices to fresh lows.

An extension to the first-time homebuyer credit -- bandied about by the Obama administration -- may soften, but not prevent another leg down, the John Burns group said.

"We anticipate that foreclosure activity will remain very high at least through 2012, with the majority of future foreclosures coming as a result of job losses," John Burns, president of the group, said in an outlook.

The second downward thrust to the "W" could also come as the FHA clamps down on credit, they said. Signs of stability in the economy will push mortgage rates higher, meantime.

Once a new, lower bottom in prices is realized in mid-2010, America can see a gradual appreciation thereafter because of weak employment, sluggish economic recovery and continued stress on the banking system, the group predicted.

The terrible U.S. retail sales  racked up in December -- called a "horror show" by ING -- were all the more gruesome because of the sales on offer to customers in the run up to Christmas. Shops weren't exactly giving things away, but their generosity knew few bounds.

Consider the experience of one visitor to a heaving handbag department in a Maryland Macy's.
 
    Customer: "I would like to buy this handbag please. Oh dear, it appears to be the only one that is not on sale."
    Salesman: "So it is. Tell you what, sir, I'll give you 15 percent off anyway."

Happy customer, happy new handbag recipient, unhappy sales figures.

Florsheim mens shoes are reasonably classy. They were imortalised, for example, by snappily dressed Jack Nicholson in Roman Polanski's "Chinatown". He was rather distressed, film buffs will recall, by what a flood drainage canal did to them.

So it was something of a sign of the times last week that a visitor to a normally genteel Florsheim shoe shop in a Maryland mall got the hard sell from two salesman. Simply popping in to ask a question, our hero was essentially told -- firmly -- that he could not afford to leave without purchasing some footwear. The price was right, he was told.

No shoes were purchased, as it happens, but the pitch was nonetheless enlightening as a sign of desperation. The mall was relatively empty, despite cut down sales at nearly every shop. Very few people were buying, judging by the shopping bags. Sales staff everywhere looked pretty lonely.

Purely subjectively, but there were no signs at this particular mall of a seasonal spurt to spending in the world's leading economy.

Black Friday has come and gone but what on earth happened at the cash registers over the Thanksgiving weekend? The data is trickling in, and so are the early critiques. (See our previous blogs: Treat Black Friday reports cautiously and Black Friday data spurs more questions than answers)

Here is a break down of the latest reports and what data is still to come:

National Retail Federation:

According its 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch and published on Sunday, the NRF said more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend (which includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projections for Sunday), up from 147 million shoppers last year. 

Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend, up 7.2 percent over last year’s $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion, up from $34.6 billion a year ago.

The results came from a survey that polled 3,370 consumers from Nov. 27-29. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percent.

ShopperTrak: 

ShopperTrak RCT’s National Retail Sales Estimate found sales on Black Friday and Saturday rose 1.9 percent from 2007 – with each day posting total sales of $10.6 billion and $6.0 billion, respectively.

It said Saturday sales fell 0.8 percent compared with last year as most Black Friday promotions ended.  Sales on Saturday last year rose 5.4 percent over 2006, with $6.1 billion spent that day.   

“At this point, we anticipate sales levels will continue to slow this week as consumers will remain home, looking for additional holiday sales toward the end of the shortened 2008 season,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, in a statement on Monday.

ShopperTrak’s results are derived from statistics from the Commerce Department on sales of items like apparel, furniture, and electronics, combined with data it tracks on shopper traffic in stores.

SpendingPulse:

On Monday, SpendingPulse, a data service provided by MasterCard Advisors, said sales at U.S. specialty apparel retailers rose 1.6 percent on Friday and Saturday from a year earlier, but sales at electronics specialty retailers fell 14.3 percent. Luxury retailers saw a 2.4 percent increase,  while e-commerce sales rose 11.8 percent, it said. 

“We definitely think there was some pent-up demand that came to the front lines on Black Friday,” said SpendingPulse’s Michael McNamara. “Major discounting obviously attracted that.” 

SpendingPulse is a macroeconomic indicator that estimates U.S. retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

Data to come:

Dec. 3: SpendingPulse will release its full report on November monthly sales.

Dec. 3: ShopperTrak will release its complete report for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, in addition to sales and traffic data for the week ending Nov. 29.

Dec. 4: Major retail chains, like Wal-Mart, Gap and Kohl’s, will release their November monthly sales figures and are expected to comment on the Black Friday weekend.

(Photo\Reuters)

How's this for a merry little Christmas?

Before the U.S. holiday shopping season even begins, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist has given up on consumer spending -- not only through Christmas '08 but all the way until next summer at the earliest.

"As we see it, the current collapse in consumer spending likely will be the most severe and longest in the postwar (World War Two) period," economist Richard Berner wrote in a note to clients. "The recovery in consumer spending likely will be moderate as consumers embark on a long period of rebuilding thrift.

Why so grim? Well, between the 1.2 million jobs lost since the beginning of the year and the downdraft in the housing and stock markets, income is taking a hit and household wealth is down about $7 trillion. Yes, trillion with a 'T.' Oh yeah, and there's that credit crunch.

Berner calls this the "perfect consumer storm" and says it will rage until mid-2009.

Now that you're thoroughly depressed, we should mention the silver lining. The drop in gasoline prices to $2.45 per gallon from $4 represents $225 billion in consumers' pockets. Add in another round of fiscal stimulus and it should limit -- though not offset -- the other strains on the system.

"Done right, and coupled with other policies to mitigate the credit crunch and foreclosures, these steps should promote a modest recovery beginning in 2010," Berner said.