Shop Talk

Check Out Line: Warning, slow recovery ahead

Check out signs that a slow recovery is in the offing.

Retail executives see only gray skies ahead as U.S. shoppers are still spending cautiously, giving weight to the notion that a recovery will remain weak beyond 2010.

“The economic backdrop is not optimal,” Ken Perkins, president of retail research firm Retail Metrics, told Reuters. “It’s not catastrophic like it was in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, but it’s just very sluggish.”

Indeed, Wal-Mart Stores posted its fifth consecutive quarterly drop in U.S. same-store sales (sales at stores that were open for at least a year) and said that trend may not reverse itself in the current quarter, Home Depot cut its full-year sales view and Kohl’s, which caters to middle-income consumers, and BJ’s Wholesale cut their profit forecasts.

“The landscape hasn’t changed, and you can make the case that perhaps it has worsened,” Kohl’s Chief Executive Kevin Mansell told Reuters last week.

 Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and was a key driver in the country’s rebound from its deepest recession since the Great Depression.

But with the housing sector, crucial to U.S. household wealth, still in a rut, and volatile stock markets pinching even those at the upper end of the income scale, the drivers of spending appear dangerously absent.

Check Out Line: Moment of truth about holiday sales

Check out the upbeat but cautious forecasts for holiday sales in the U.S. and the U.K. ahead of their release later this week.

Most U.S. retailers are set to post December sales later this week and let us know just how much better things have gotten since the disastrous 2008 holiday season. They’ll need all the good news they can get — holiday sales can account for as much as 40 percent of annual sales.

Analysts forecast sales at 30 U.S. retail chains tracked by Thomson Reuters Data will have risen by 1.3 percent in December, after a slow start to the holiday season in November. All in all, discount retailers such as Target and BJ’s Wholesale are expected to have fared best for the season, while teen apparel stores like Aeropostale languish.

But analysts have sounded a note of caution, predicting victory could be short lived with consumers expected to resume their penny-pinching ways this spring.

On the other side of the pond, it’s much the same story. U.K. retailers are also set to release Christmas results later this week and show improvement over a calamitous 2008 holiday season. But some of those gains may have been artificially pumped by consumers bringing forward their spending before a hike in a value-added tax, and analysts are concerned about how slowly the U.K. is rebounding.

Also in the basket: Rite Aid same-store-sales fall for 7th month in a row German retailer Metro signs deal with Foxconn to expand in China

(Reuters photo.)

Check Out Line: The hurt is spreading

Check out the latest sales reports, which show that consumers are still cutting back on discretionary spending as they shift to discounters for the basics.  Granted, that’s not exactly news anymore, but some of this morning’s sales tell us that even the discounters are starting to feel the heat.

“Sales for the month of May were somewhat below our expectations,” chief executive officer of Target, Greg Steinhafel, said in a statement.

He’s not alone.

Big boxers such as Target and BJ’s Wholesale reported steeper than expected drops in same-store sales, suggesting that the recession may have depended further than the luxury market.

Speaking of which, upscale department stores, such as Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus, saw sales slip while Macy’s fared slightly better than analysts had expected.  Abercrombie & Fitch, known for their strong hold on the younger markets saw same-store sales slide 28 percent, worse than the decline analysts had expected.  And teen/tween sensation Hot Topic, saw same-store sales fall 6.4 percent which were, again, steeper than analysts had predicted.

There were some bright spots, though: if you ignore gasoline sales, Costco Wholesale saw same-store sales rise one percent, and BJ’s Wholesale rose 4 percent.  And for apparel, Buckle Inc’s more casual teen market shopped the company’s same-store sales up 13.4 percent.

Even TJX, owner of TJ Maxx and Marshall’s among others, saw higher customer traffic translate into company gains even in the face of fluctuating international exchange rates.

Check Out Line: Value in Vogue

Check out mixed news from discount retailers.Warehouse clubs turned in a diverging earnings performance on Wednesday but overall results still showed the strength of this business model as consumers search for bargains.No. 1 U.S. warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale reported a lower profit as non-food sales weakened, but smaller rival BJ’s Wholesale eked out an earnings gain.As both retailers look to preserve and grow their business, that could bode even better for cost-conscious customers.Costco has said it will cut prices to keep shoppers, while BJ’s said one of its top priorities this year is to gain market share.Close-out chain Big Lots also posted profit that topped Wall Street forecasts – and investors eagerly snapped up its shares.Also in the basket:Liz Claiborne outlook weak More mortgage borrowers are ‘underwater’Kindle access from iPhone(Photo: Reuters)

Check Out Line: Mother Nature matters more than ever

Check out the cool and wet weather that hit U.S. retailers in September as the month will go into the books as the fifth coolest in the last seven years and much cooler than last year, according to Planalytics Inc, a business weather tracking company.

While the mean September temperature in the 96 largest U.S. metro areas fell about 4 points from last year to 64.2 degrees, retailers selling rainwear (demand up 29 percent based purely on weather), pants (up 13 percent), dehumidifiers (up 10 percent) and hot cereal (up 2 percent) benefited, Planalytics said.

September also was the 11th wettest since 1961, driven by six tropical storms, including Hurricane Ike, the consulting firm said. Some cities, such as Chicago, St. Louis and Wichita, Kansas, had their wettest Septembers ever recorded, while Houston, Kansas City and Little Rock, Arkansas, had months that still ranked among the the 10 wettest.

“The tropical systems that pummeled both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts became the real weather story of the month. Despite challenging economic times, businesses that supply pre- and post-hurricane staples such as gas, ice, water, non-refrigerated foods, generators, tarps, plywood, and chainsaws experienced brisk sales in the affected areas, driven by need-based purchases” Fred Fox, Planalytics CEO Fred Fox said in a statement. “In addition, foot traffic into grocery stores, restaurants, and hotels was robust along evacuation routes.”

The weather was a favorable factor for 78 percent of the publicly traded companies tracked by Planalytics, with the biggest positive comparisons seen at BJ’s Wholesale Club (store traffic up 24 percent), Family Dollar Stores (up 22 percent), Shoe Carnival (up 16 percent) and Target (up 13 percent).

More broadly, the index for retailers that sell a broad line of merchandise was up 14 percent based solely on weather, and it rose 8 percent for retailers that sell mostly apparel, Planalytics said. On the down side, were indices for home centers (off 4 percent) and restaurants (off 6 percent). 

Also in the basket:

BJ’s: Prices are going up and competition may be “brutal”

Late last month, Costco warned its quarterly profit would miss Wall Street estimates as soaring costs and inflationary pressures ate into its margins.

While the cost of the goods it sells was going up, the No 1 U.S. warehouse club operator said it was delaying passing along price increases to shoppers in order to boost its sales and appeal to cash-strapped consumers.

“It is times like this, painful as it may be, that holding off on price-increasing certain key items, by even a few weeks, we believe helps and strengthens our business for the longer term,” Costco Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said at the time.

BJ’s Wholesale, the No 3 U.S. warehouse club operator, said on Wednesday that it is  keeping an eye on what its competitors are doing when it comes to marking up their prices.

“Inflation is a huge challenge for all retailers as we try to manage pricing in such a way that we recoup our costs while continuing to deliver value,” said BJ’s CEO Herb Zarkin on a call with analysts. “Our overall goal is to maintain our margin rate but it is quite a balancing act.”

But one thing is clear — BJ’s does not intend to undermine its profits by selling goods below cost.

“No rational retailer can accept these kind of increases and expect to make a profit. It’s just not going to work,” he said.

Check Out Line: Consumers seek basics; retailers seek mergers

Check out a busy day for retailers as earnings — or losses – poured in from BJ’s Wholesale, Talbots, Charming Shoppes and Brown Shoe. 

The “flight to necessities” by the U.S. consumer was on display as BJ’s  — which sells food and fuel — posted a 26 percent jump in quarterly profit.

But for businesses steeped in discrection, the quarter was no cakewalk.  Talbots posted sharply lower quarterly net profit; Charming Shoppes reported a quarterly loss and Brown Shoe posted a lower first-quarter profit.

With the U.S. environment a tough one to navigate, retailers are looking to add or subtract businesses to put themselves in a better position. 

Spectrum Brands announced plans to sell its global pet supply business to a subsidiary of Salton Inc; the Wall Street Journal reported that Barnes and Noble Inc is looking into a possible bid for competitor Borders Group; and Dutch office supplier Corporate Express is seeking to buy French rival Lyreco for 1.4 billion euros ($2.2 billion), as it fends off a hostile bid from U.S. rival Staples.

(Photos: Reuters)