Check out this cheerful forecast form Societe Generale.
 
The French bank’s cross asset strategist, Albert Edwards, said the U.S. economy is likely to enter a depression. Oh, and look out for a global trade war with China.
 
For retailers reeling from the worst holiday season in four decades, the forecast cannot be welcome.
 
Edwards predicts the S&P 500 is set to fall another 40 percent from recent levels.
 
But there could be another problem looming, he wrote in a research note.

“It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a rerun of the Great Depression,” he said.
 
There you have it. Happy New Year.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Black Angus Steakhouse parent files for bankruptcy
 
Circuit City still in talks over potential sale
 
Deal-form-hell award to Landry’s (New York Times DealBook)

(Photo: Reuters)

What would Mattel wish for if it had one wish to make? The launch of the toy giant’s “My Meebas” points to one possibility — better fortunes for its girl’s toy business, as Barbie sales continue to face trouble.

Mattel launched “My Meebas” — a toy for girls aged 6 to 12 that houses a plush “Meeba” in a plastic tube, which serves as a gaming device with a movable LCD screen.

The toy is aimed at the latest generation of girls, who like plush toys but are also into electronic games, Mattel said. The launch comes at a time when Mattel is struggling to revive sales in its girl’s division, best known for its iconic Barbie dolls. Sales of Barbie have suffered in past quarters, as other toys such as “Hannah Montana” and Bratz steal market share. 

The “Meebas”, also made in China like many other toys, will retail for $19.99, while a Barbie “Top Model” doll can be bought for $14.97 at Wal-Mart. The toys have gone through extensive checks, Mattel said, following the spate of recalls last year.

With a “Meeba,” the idea is for a user to buy the toy as they make a wish, and then go through seven levels of game play, or over 20 activities, which could take anywhere from seven to 12 hours, according to Mattel. 

The LCD screen can be moved up and down the side of the tube, showing how the “Meeba” grows as game progresses.

Once all activities are completed, the tube pops open, and the user can pull out their ”Meeba” — in a sign meant to signify that the user’s wish has finally been granted.

If the user buys another Meeba, maybe Mattel’s wish will get granted as well.

 The company has 60 such “Meebas” listed under categories such as friendship, love and intelligence.

The bonus? Some tubes have twin Meebas.

Watch out girls! (And make a wish, Mattel.)

(Photo: Mattel)

Check out how Tiffany sparkles overseas.
 
Forget the United States (where Tiffany does not expect sales to improve until later this year). They are still buying baubles in Europe.
 
Sales in Europe rose 30 percent in the first quarter. And that was on a CONSTANT CURRENCY basis. No help from the weak dollar in that number. The company added four more stores, which helped, as did the 12 percent increase in same store sales.
 
Asia also saw a 10 percent increase in sales on a constant currency basis.
 
The U.S. consumer may be under pressure. But apparently there are still sales and profits to be mined overseas.
 
Also in the basket:
 
April personal spending up, flat after inflation 
 
J Crew cuts year earnings outlook, shares drop 15 pct

NexCen cuts 25 pct of New York workforce, mulls options 

Coach’s gateway to growth in China (WWD)

(Photo: Reuters)