Check out the latest outlook on October sales at U.S. retailers.

While most industry experts expect a 1.2 percent rise thanks to the weather gods and easy comparisons, the forecast doesn’t really say it all.

For instance, while sales trends have improved from a disastrous October 2008, data on the economy and consumer spending gives mixed signals and indicates shoppers remain cautious.

News of the U.S. economy returning to growth may have renewed some hopes of a revival in spending late last week, but the Commerce Department talked about consumer spending falling 0.5 percent in September.

It may be too early to raise hopes based on expectations for October.  One thing is certain — the future is unclear.

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NBA average ticket price falls for 1st time in 8 years

Wal-Mart announces second round of toy price cuts

Flu fears boost Clorox profit; tops Street view

Dean Foods profit up; sees uptrend in dairy prices

(Reuters photo)

Check out the tale of two cities in the retail world.

We are in the heart of the earnings season and every day brings reports that offer grist for both sides of the argument about whether the recovery has begun.

For the optimists, we have sports clothing and footwear maker Under Armour, which posted a stronger-than-expected quarter and raised its outlook, and yoga clothing and athletic gear maker Lululemon Athletica, which raised its forecast.

Meanwhile, DineEquity, home of the Rooty Tooty Fresh ‘N Fruity breakfast at IHOP, topped Wall Street’s expectations due to lower costs, and better sales and more efficient staffing allowed outdoor gear retailer Cabela’s to post stronger-than-expected earnings.

On the other side of the tug-of-war, pessimists can point to VF Corp. The maker of such brands as the North Face, Vans, Wrangler and Lee missed analysts’ expectations and said consumer spending would remain challenged.

Meanwhile, Winn-Dixie posted a wider loss and gave a weak 2010 outlook as recession-hit consumers shopped for fewer items on visits to the supermarket chain, and Limited Brands, the operator of the Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, warned that its October sales are trending below expectations.

The market weighed in as S&P 500 index futures edged higher on Tuesday as better-than-expected earnings offset worries that the market’s seven-month rally was reaching its end.

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PepsiCo wins EU approval to buy two bottlers

Analyst: Store Closures Predicted to Peak in ‘10 (WWD, subscription required)

Men’s Wearhouse to spiff up K&G stores (New York Post)

(Reuters photo)

Check out how cost cutting helped Whirlpool.

The world’s biggest appliance maker used cost cuts to offset weak sales as it reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit. Whirlpool also raised its full-year profit outlook, citing downsizing and — yes, you guessed it — cost cuts as demand remains uncertain in many markets.

Sales at appliance makers like Whirlpool, known for its Maytag and KitchenAid brands, and Sweden’s Electrolux have suffered in the global economic slowdown as consumers trim spending on items not deemed essential.

Whirlpool’s recent cost cutting actions have included plant closures, consolidation of its Chinese operations, lower retirement plan contributions, frozen salaries and lower capital spending.

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Fortune Brands profit tops Street view

Cache posts wider-than-expected Q3 loss; sees Q4 profit

Wal-Mart shrinks US supercenters, sees tepid sales

Long lines as Microsoft opens retail store

Amazon soars above Street view, shares skyrocket

(Reuters photo)

Check out a survey showing that younger U.S. consumers are trimming travel plans as well as turkeys during Thanksgiving.
    
More young professionals (37 percent) are adjusting their Thanksgiving travel and spending plans than the affluent and general population (both 30 percent), according to a survey by American Express. Young professionals are defined as less than 30 years old, having a college degree and a minimum annual household income of $50,000.
    
The young guns also are pulling back in other areas:
 
* 11 percent of young professionals plan to drive instead of flying, compared to 7 percent of the general population and 6 percent of the affluent, who are defined as having a minimum annual household income of $100,000. 
    
* 8 percent of young pros plan to shorten their stay for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, compared to the affluent and general population (both 3 percent). 
 
* 7 percent of young pros will use rewards points, miles and special offers to offset the cost, versus 4 percent of the affluent and 3 percent of the general population.
    
Overall, American Express found 30 percent of U.S. consumers plan to adjust this year’s travel plans for Thanksgiving — historically one of the busiest travel days of the year — but only 21 percent expect those expenses to decline from last year.
    
Those who are changing their plans said they will rely more on travel by car, stay for a shorter time and cash in rewards to help pay for holiday trips as they become more selective amid the high unemployment and soft housing market.

However, in a positive sign, sales at U.S. retailers excluding vehicle sales rose for the second straight month in September, raising cautious optimism consumer spending could support the economic recovery.
    
The American Express survey also showed that the young professionals are cutting back for Halloween, when consumers spent $5.8 billion last year according to the National Retail Federation.
    
* 36 percent of young pros are buying less expensive costumes and decorations.  The rate is 16 percent among the affluent group and 15 percent among the general population. 

* 26 percent of young pros are making their own costumes or using hand-me-downs.  Again, that is higher than the 13 percent of affluent respondents and 11 percent of the general population. 
    
Looking ahead to the winter holiday season, sale prices are still king when it comes to early shoppers.  Eighty-two percent overall said they would be enticed by some sort of discount, with almost all of the young professionals (96 percent) and affluent (94 percent) agreeing.
    
It appears easier to entice the young set.  They would be willing to spend with discounts as low as 10 percent, according to American Express.  The affluent said it would take a discount of nearly 30 percent, on average, for them to buy. 
     
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Kraft opens $50 mln Russian biscuit factory

Host Hotels beats estimates on cost cuts

Diageo’s Q1 sales dip 6 pct, sending shares lower 

Handbags and snoods help Burberry top forecasts

(Reuters photo)

Check out the unexpected increase in September same-store sales at U.S. retailers.

Providing hope that demand may be improving ahead of the holiday shopping season, retailers posted a surprise 0.6 percent increase last month in stores open at least a year, instead of the 1.1 percent decline analysts had expected.

And International Council of Shopping Centers sees October same-store sales even with a year ago. TJX Cos, which operates the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, cited strong momentum heading into October.

“The consumer is dipping their toe back into the discretionary waters right now, but just their toe,” said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

Among the retailers posting better-than-expected results were Aeropostale, Kohl’s, Children’s Place and American Eagle Outfitters. Many others posted declines that were not as weak as expected.

While this year’s later Labor Day holiday pushed a good chunk of sales from August into September, analysts had wondered if rising unemployment would weigh more heavily on spending.  However, sales of clothing for the back-to-school season fueled many retailers’ performances, and the number of U.S. workers filing jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

But the economy is not out of the woods yet. Holiday spending could be further constrained by consumer aversion to debt, as total U.S. consumer credit posted a deeper-than-expected drop in August, suggesting consumers are opting to cut debt rather than spend.

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Liz Claiborne in exclusive deal with J.C. Penney

PepsiCo profit tops expectations

Barnes & Noble sees same-store sales decline

Marriott beats estimates on summer demand

(Reuters photo)

National Hockey League teams put the freeze on ticket prices this season.

The average price for general tickets in the NHL ticked up just 0.1 percent to $51.41, according to Team Marketing Report (TMR), a sports marketing firm that tracks ticket costs in the major North American sports leagues. After adjusting Canadian prices to current exchange rates, the average cost of a ticket rose by just 5 cents.  

In the previous three years, the average NHL ticket cost rose 5.1 percent (2008-2009), 7.7 percent (2007-2008) and 3.7 percent (2006-2007), TMR said.

Fourteen teams kept prices unchanged from last year and six saw their averages decline, according to TMR.

Meanwhile, the average Fan Cost Index (FCI) – the cost of a family of four to attend a game — rose 1.7 percent to $301, TMR said. The FCI includes the cost of four tickets, two small draft beers, four small soft drinks, four hot dogs, parking, two game programs and two caps.

The average premium ticket is $118.63, TMR said.

The recession has forced sports leagues to rethink prices as consumers cut spending on tickets as well as food and souvenirs once at an event. The National Football League has had to black out local broadcasts in some markets due to a lack of sellouts, while the cost of tickets in the secondary market for Major League Baseball first-round playoff games are down as much as 50 percent in some markets. 

In the NHL rankings, the highest average price belongs to the Toronto Maple Leafs at $117.49, up 10.2 percent from last year, TMR said. The team’s FCI also is the highest at $585.87. The defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins raised their prices 8 percent on average to $55.55.

Teams with double-digit percentage declines in average price were the Boston Bruins (off 10.5 percent), New Jersey Devils (off 15.9 percent) and the  Tampa Bay Lightning (down 16.5 percent), TMR said. The Dallas Stars had the lowest average at $35.66, a decline of 5.7 percent from last season, while the Lightning’s FCI was the lowest at $221.04, down 12.4 percent.

(Reuters photo)

Check out consumers’ continued taste for private label items.

In the past 12 months, private label’s unit and dollar share of the U.S. market have grown, according to a report by research firm Information Resources Inc. Unit share grew 1.2 points to 22.8 percent, while dollar share inched up 0.7 points to 17.6 percent.

“The popularity of private brands will continue as a result of several factors,” IRI Consulting and Innovation President Thom Blischok said in the statement. “These products offer a very strong value proposition based on quality as well as price. In addition, shoppers will continue their frugal shopping patterns long after the recession ends. And, retailers’ increasingly sophisticated private brand strategies will attract a larger and more diverse shopper base.”

In many categories, private brands now are able to compete on quality as well as price, while retailers continue to increase the breadth and depth of their store brand offerings, IRI said.

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ConAgra raises 2010 profit view

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Survey Finds Wealthy Less Keen on Luxe Category (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out Consumer Reports’ latest taste test.

The magazine found that 23 store-brand foods tasted as good as or better than their big national brand competitors in blind tests of 29 food products.  The store-brand foods tested cost an average of 27 percent less than their big-name counterparts, allowing consumers to trim their shopping bills. 

“Our tests should erase any lingering doubts that store-brand packaged goods aren’t at least worth a try. In many cases, you’ll save money without compromising on quality,” Tod Marks, senior project editor for Consumer Reports Shopping, said in a statement.

“Today’s store brands are not the no-frills generics folks remember from the ’70s. They enjoy more prominent placement on shelves, snazzier packaging, more promotion, and, in general, higher manufacturing standards than in years past,” he added.

For example, Consumer Reports said its tasters preferred Archer Farms Chewy Soft Baked cookies (Target), Kirkland Signature Organic Medium Salsa (Costco) and Great Value Whipped Topping (Walmart) to similar products from Pepperidge Farm, Old El Paso, Betty Crocker and Kraft.

In the most recent supermarket survey by Consumer Reports National Research Center, 70 percent of respondents said they were highly satisfied with the quality of store brands.

Not every store brand finished on top in the survey, however. Tasters still preferred Ocean Spray Craisins, KC Masterpiece Original barbeque sauce, Oscar Mayer precooked bacon, Quaker Natural Granola Oats, Honey & Raisins cereal, and Kellogg’s Pop Tarts to the store brands.

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Late Labor Day seen as pulling down August sales

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(Reuters photo)

Check out a study  that calls sales tax holidays poor tax policy.

With a number of states wrapping up back-to-school sales tax holidays, the Tax Foundation, which describes itself as a nonpartisan organization that monitors fiscal policy at the federal, state and local levels, called such exemptions “nothing more than political gimmicks that do little to help consumers.”

The Tax Foundation said such ”holidays,” which the group said amount to a 4 to 7 percent price reduction for consumers for only a brief period, simply favor certain industries over others and increase tax code complexity. In some cases, some retailers simply raise prices during a “holiday,” effectively absorbing the benefit, the group said.

“If a state must offer a ‘holiday’ from its tax system, it’s a sign that the state’s tax system is uncompetitive - something that must be addressed with permanent reform,” Tax Foundation staff economist Mark Robyn said in a statement.

“In order to provide lasting relief to consumers, policymakers should cut the sales tax rate year-round, while broadening the sales tax base to include all goods and services would ensure that government would be able to raise necessary revenue in the least economically distortionary way,” said Robyn, one of the report’s authors.

In citing how the states pick winners with the tax holidays, the Tax Foundation cited Virginia’s hurricane-preparedness sales tax holiday, which applied to cell phone chargers but not laptop chargers and duct tape but not masking or electrical tape.

States have resorted to such tax breaks as a way to boost consumer outlays at a time when the recession has led to a clampdown on their spending.

While there are signs that recession is easing — new jobless claims fell – consumers are still wary. Global Hunter Securities expects holiday retail sales from November 2009 through January 2010 will finish in the range of up 1 percent to down 1 percent compared with a 7.6 percent decline the year before.

Also in the basket:

American Eagle quarterly profit plunges

Diageo cuts target as sees recovery only by 2010

Fred’s Q2 profit matches Wall Street

‘Clunkers’ Sequel Rattles Appliance Producers (Wall Street Journal)

Coconut Water Bubbles (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo)

Check out all the earnings in the consumer world.

Several retailers and food companies posted quarterly results, offering different views on where they stand in a recession that has consumers dialing back spending.

Macy’s posted a better-than-expected profit as it cut costs, but the department store operator’s new, higher earnings forecast shows full-year profit could still fall short of analysts’ expectations.

Sara Lee, the maker of baked goods and Jimmy Dean sausage, also reported a stronger-than-expected profit before one-time items on improvements in North America and said it was still considering divesting its international household and personal care business.

Underwear maker Maindenform also saw a profit that topped expectations, thanks largely to strong demand for its shapewear products, and raised its full-year outlook.

However, Liz Claiborne, owner of the Juicy Couture, Kate Spade and Lucky Brand chains,  posted a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss as the recession kept many shoppers from buying the company’s clothing and accessories.

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Escada future uncertain as insolvency nears

Ackman alters Target stake, sticks with retailer

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Warnaco misses Street target by penny, ups outlook

Choice Advice From Meat Cutters (Wall Street Journal) 

(Reuters photo)