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Retailers, consumers and prices

August 12th, 2009

Check Out Line: Earnings-palooza!

Posted by: Ben Klayman

macys1Check out all the earnings in the consumer world.

Several retailers and food companies posted quarterly results, offering different views on where they stand in a recession that has consumers dialing back spending.

Macy’s posted a better-than-expected profit as it cut costs, but the department store operator’s new, higher earnings forecast shows full-year profit could still fall short of analysts’ expectations.

Sara Lee, the maker of baked goods and Jimmy Dean sausage, also reported a stronger-than-expected profit before one-time items on improvements in North America and said it was still considering divesting its international household and personal care business.

Underwear maker Maindenform also saw a profit that topped expectations, thanks largely to strong demand for its shapewear products, and raised its full-year outlook.

However, Liz Claiborne, owner of the Juicy Couture, Kate Spade and Lucky Brand chains,  posted a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss as the recession kept many shoppers from buying the company’s clothing and accessories.

Also in the basket:

Escada future uncertain as insolvency nears

Ackman alters Target stake, sticks with retailer

Walgreen in Delaware Medicaid plan, suit continues

Warnaco misses Street target by penny, ups outlook

Choice Advice From Meat Cutters (Wall Street Journal

(Reuters photo)

August 5th, 2009

Check Out Line: Consumer optimism fizzles in summer heat

Posted by: Ben Klayman

shop11Check out the recession-battered consumer in a new Discover survey.

Consumer attitudes continue to weaken according to Discover’s U.S. Spending Monitor for July, as results fell for the second consecutive month to 83.5 (out of 100) from 85.6.

Translation: Growing pessimism about the economy and personal finances has more consumers planning overall spending cuts.

Only 21 percent expect to spend more in the month ahead, a 2-point decline from June.

“The optimism consumers showed about the economy during the spring has faded during the summer,” Discover Financial Services senior vice president Julie Loeger said in a statement. “Unemployment is still rising and while some are saying the worst is over, the majority of consumers surveyed … don’t feel that way. Until they do, consumers are unlikely to start spending again.”

It doesn’t appear that consumers are taking what they aren’t spending to the bank. Discover said 42 percent expect to save or invest less in the month ahead, tying a high for its monitor survey. Only 9 percent expect to save or invest more — you guessed it, a low for the survey.

Overall, 61 percent of those surveyed rated the current economic conditions as poor, a 2-point increase from June, Discover said. Only 32 percent of consumers surveyed rate their finances as good or excellent (another new low), while 25 percent rate them as poor (tying the high).

Meanwhile, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned playoffs at U.S. firms rose in July for the first time in six months, signaling more uneasy times for workers.

Also in the basket:

P&G profit falls, sales light, shares skid

Polo profit soars past Street view; shares up

Adidas Q2 beats estimates, says worst behind it

Dean Foods posts higher quarterly profit

Macy’s Adapts to Weaker Sales as Customers Seek Deals (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo)

August 4th, 2009

Check Out Line: More bad news for U.S. retailers in July

Posted by: Ben Klayman

target11Check out the expected drop in July same-store sales for U.S. retailers.

July typically offers retailers a chance to bolster second-quarter profits by selling new autumn merchandise, but they likely got little boost this year from back-to-school sales as cool weather, a weak job market and a lack of tax-free holidays has analysts expecting an 11th consecutive drop in monthly same-store sales.

Consumers have shown a penchant for skipping full-price items to stretch their budgets amid the recession.

The industry will be looking for signs of stabilization in the results as consumer confidence may be bottoming out, but the messages have been mixed. On Tuesday, U.S. consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in June, but personal incomes saw their biggest drop in four-and-a-half years.

Also in the basket:

ADM misses Street view as earnings drop 83 percent

PepsiCo to buy bottlers for $7.8 bln; shares up

CVS Caremark posts higher profit, raises view

Latest Starbucks Buzzword: ‘Lean’ Japanese Techniques (Wall Street Journal)

Buzz Kill? Critics Target Alcohol-Caffeine Drinks (Wall Street Journal)

Fashion Refinancing back in Vogue (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo/Reuters)

July 27th, 2009

Check Out Line: Several companies ring up strong profits

Posted by: Ben Klayman

shack1Check out the better-than-expected profits at Alberto Culver, Lorillard and RadioShack.

Alberto Culver, the maker of VO5 shampoo and Mrs. Dash seasoning, said its third-quarter profit, excluding one-time items was 30 cents a share, a penny above what analysts had expected, thanks to strong demand for its TRESemme shampoo.

Cigarette maker Lorillard earned $1.71 a share in its second quarter, easily topping the $1.43 Wall Street was expecting, as it boosted prices and its market-share. It also OK’ed a new $750 million stock-buyback plan.

Electronics retailer RadioShack’s second-quarter profit was 39 cents a share — 10 cents above forecasts — on lower costs and improved sales of netbooks, prepaid wireless handsets and digital TVs.

Nielsen said global consumer confidence remains subdued but has risen slightly since March, notably in Asia and Brazil, on the belief an economic recovery may be in sight, according to a survey by the firm. However, U.S. consumer sentiment was unchanged with those consumers ranking only 17th most confident among 28 markets surveyed.

Also in the basket:

THQ prevails in Jakks Pacific arbitration dispute

Wave of Store Closures Expected (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

July 21st, 2009

Check Out Line: Back to last year’s fashion for back-to-school season

Posted by: Ben Klayman

shop11Check out the expected weak back-to-school shopping season predicted by America’s Research Group and UBS.

U.S. consumers will spend 8.5 percent to 12 percent less this year on back-to-school items than they did last year as cash-strapped parents try to get their kids to don last year’s fashions again, according to a survey by America’s Research and UBS. Back-to-school sales fell 5 percent last year.

A total of 34.4 percent of parents surveyed this month plan to spend even less this year as they worry about job security, higher debt and dwindling income.

The back-to-school season is typically one of the busiest shopping seasons of the year and is seen as a precursor for spending during the key Christmas holiday season.

Retailers hope consumer confidence improves as the recession appears to be easing. However, the moribund U.S. jobs market is likely to lag any recovery.

Also in the basket:

Coca-Cola second-quarter profit tops expectations

World’s first camel-milk chocolates going global

Danone seen posting slight profit rise

Borders Aims to Capitalize on Teens With New Shops (Wall Street Journal

Stores Go Dark Where Buyers Once Roamed (New York Times)

J.C. Penney’s Manhattan Debut To Reshape Landscape (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

July 14th, 2009

Check Out Line: Less money for pencils and school books

Posted by: Ben Klayman

students1Check out the expected lower spending on back-to-school items.

Parents plan to spend less money on back-to-school gear for their children this year in another worrisome sign for retailers heading into what is normally their second biggest selling period behind Christmas.

The average family with children in kindergarten through 12th grade is expected to spend $548.72 on back-to-school merchandise this year, down 7.7 percent from 2008, according to the National Retail Federation.

Retailers can take some heart, however, as college students and their parents are expected to boost spending 3 percent to buy the latest pricey electronics and dorm-room decor. Of course, total college spending is expected to fall 4 percent as fewer attend college.

Retailers are taking action to deal with such pressures as department store operator J.C. Penney is launching a website for teens to drive back-to-school sales.

And there are some positive signs of a modest recovery.

Also in the basket:

CIT survival ensnared in regulatory battle

Marketside food items for sale in Wal-Mart stores

Grocer Basha’s files for Chapter 11 protection

Burger King Scraps Plans For $1 Burger (Wall Street Journal)

Dial-a-Mattress Retailer Blames Troubles on Stores, Executive Team (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo)

July 7th, 2009

Check Out Line: Not so hot June expected for U.S. retailers

Posted by: Ben Klayman

shop1Check out the expected June sales declines at U.S. retailers.

Cooler and wetter weather made things tough for companies, especially those selling summer products in the first three weeks. Overall same-store sales for the month are expected to be down 4.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.

“The consumer is still up against too many hurdles to be spending too much money,” Storehouse Partners retail analyst Patricia Edwards said.

Department stores and apparel chains are expected to post the worst drops at 9.4 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, as consumers turn  thrifty and focus on essentials in the recession.

Meanwhile, in another bad sign for a recovery, delinquencies on credit card debt rose to an all-time high in the first quarter as a record number of cash-strapped consumers fell behind on their bills, according to the American Bankers Association.

Also in the basket:

Obama administration takes action on food safety

Walmex quarter seen strong despite recession

Canada’s Jean Coutu narrowly tops estimates

Retailers Do More With Less Inventory (WWD, subscription required)

Tight Squeeze: Making Room For a New Men’s Fashion (Wall Street Journal)

In a Downturn, Jewelers Aren’t So Precious (New York Times)

(Reuters photo)

July 2nd, 2009

Check Out Line: Lower discretionary spending at drugstores

Posted by: Ben Klayman

walgreen1Check out June same-store sales at drugstore chains.

Walgreen Co and Rite Aid both reported sales at stores open at least a year, pointing to shoppers filling more prescriptions but buying less discretionary summer merchandise. Walgreen said same-store sales in June rose 3.4 percent, while smaller rival Rite Aid saw sales slip 0.6 percent.

Economists and analysts had previously pointed to signs the recession may be nearing an end, but the news is still mixed as the number of jobs cut in June was higher than expected and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent.

Also in the basket:

Polo extends deal to dress US Olympic teams

If You Gave a Fashion Show and No One Came … (Wall Street Journal)

Luxury-Goods Makes Brandish Green Credentials (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo)

June 30th, 2009

Check Out Line: Retail joy in sunny days?

Posted by: Ben Klayman

shop11Check out the welcome warm weather.

The long anticipated arrival of warm weather helped boost U.S. consumer spending 1.6 percent in the week that ended June 27, from a week ago – the strongest gain since matching its Jan. 31 results, according to a stody by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs.

On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 0.6 percent.

“A bout of seasonally hot weather late in the week helped to trigger consumer spending,” ICSC chief economist Michael Niemira said in a statement. “This late June sales spark was a welcome sign for the industry and the economy. ”
 
However, he added, ”for the month as a whole, June sales continue on track for a ‘tough’ month with the early part of the month weighing heavy on its performance.”
 
Excluding Wal-Mart Stores, which has stopped reporting monthly sales, the ICSC expects June sales to be down by about 5 percent.

Investors, analysts and consumers are watching for signs the U.S. recession may be nearing an end.

Also in the basket:

Nestle confirms E. coli found in Nestle cookie dough

Grocers on defensive as dollar stores rise

Top US court agrees to hear case on NFL licensing

Bendy cucumbers, strange leeks return to EU shops

Apparel Firms Keep Close Eye on Honduras (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo/Reuters)

June 23rd, 2009

Check Out Line: Frugality still in, but less so now

Posted by: Ben Klayman

food1Check out the lower level of planned frugality among consumers.

While 52 percent of consumers making less than $35,000 plan to cut back on dining out, that is down from the 72 percent who had such plans last fall, according to a survey by Information Resources Inc.

IRI found most consumers plan to spend less on summer vacations, cook at home more and eat out less often.

“The times they are a changin’, but not as much as they were changin’ in the fall of 2008,” said Thom Blischok, president of consulting and innovation at Information Resources.

The improving mood is reflected in the expected higher U.S. sales of existing homes in May for the second straight month and a manufacturing survey showing a 2010 hiring rebound.

However, IRI said the move to private label products, which stores have put a greater emphasis on in the recession because of their appealing lower prices and higher profit margins, will continue this year. Such products are expected to account for as much as 22 percent of U.S. sales of food and household goods, up from about 19 percent last year.

That trend was echoed in another study that found the U.S. recession is taking a bite out of national brand loyalty. Catalina Marketing Corp’s Pointer Media Network found that just four out of 10 brands held on to at least half of their highly loyal customers from 2007 to 2008.

Also in the basket:

“Alice” aims to change household shopping habits

Monsanto, Dole in 5-year vegetable collaboration

Kroger posts higher profit, stands by year view

IKEA sees record sales in spite of downturn-paper

Smith & Wesson Q4 tops St; sees dip in Q1 order backlog

Syms Plots Filene’s Future (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)