Check out what women buy when they get tired of being a frugalista: boots, plaid and outerwear. 

Those were some of the products that helped October U.S. retail sales improve from a year ago, when the unfolding financial meltdown had shoppers fearing a second Great Depression.

“Frugal fatigue is setting in,” said NPD Group analyst Marshal Cohen. After a year of scrimping, he added, the numbers suggest that some women are going in for a little retail fix.

“Women (not only moms) are shopping their closets, discovering new and fresh looks and filling in with some key updates,” he said.

But selective shopping is not enough to ease worries about the all-important holiday sales.

Thomson Reuters research shows that while October sales rebounded, results from individual retailers were mixed.

Also in the basket:

Warnaco beats estimates; Liz Claiborne misses

Children’s Place October same-store sales beat estimates

CVS says won’t meet pharmacy benefits view in 2010

US commercial real estate to bottom in 2010-survey

Productivity at 6-year high, jobless claims fall

Talk about a disconnect.

Experts say U.S. economic growth has returned, signaling the end of the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression.

But the good news for Wall Street — where shares have been running up — is showing no signs of trickling down to Main Street, where unemployment is flirting with 10 percent, foreclosures continue to rise and record numbers of families now depend on government-issued food stamps to make ends meet.

“For every person out of work, for every family facing foreclosure, for every small business facing a credit crunch, the recession remains alive and acute,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in testimony to a congressional committee.

“Many people you might have called middle class or working class before have been ground down toward poverty or even destitution,” said author Barbara Ehrenreich, who has chronicled America’s working poor during her career.

While most Americans either fret about a job loss or deal with the financial devastation of joblessness, the income gap between the super rich in the United States and the average Joe is the largest since the 1920s. Nearly one-sixth of the U.S. population is uninsured. And, contrary to popular belief, Americans are less likely to move to a higher financial status than people who live in “socialist” countries like Germany, Canada, France or Sweden.

Many economists, who warn that the U.S. economy is in for a “jobless recovery,” caution that the turnaround is on fragile ground.

“Sure the economy’s standing up on its own legs again, but for how long once the government stimulus starts to fade?  That’s the million dollar question for the nation’s unemployed, all 15.1 million of them sitting idle through no fault of their own,” said Chris Rupkey, an economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

“We’ve got a long way to go,” U.S. President Barack Obama said.

(Additional reporting by Emily Kaiser; Reuters photo)

Check out the Retail Metrics earnings snapshot.

About two-thirds of the way through the second-quarter earnings season, retailers are beating earnings expectations by 5.1 percent on average, the research firm said.

But those were pretty low expectations and earnings are still down 6.4 percent compared with a year earlier. It is even worse when Wal-Mart is excluded. Then earnings are down 9.8 percent, Retail Metrics said.

Revenue is also down 2 percent.

With 83 retailers reporting, 41 percent had year-over-year earnings gains and 57 percent had declines.

Auto parts, drug and apparel retailers were among the groups seeing earnings gains, while teen apparel, department stores and home building supply stores were among the worst performers, Retail Metrics said.

Also in the basket:

Chico’s profit rises,  meets street view

Staples profit falls; says won’t give outlook

Burger King profit rises

Borders posts wider-than-expected loss

(Reuters photo)

Check Out Supervalu’s troubles from consumer thrift.

The third-largest  U.S. supermarket operator, with about 2,500 stores, said that its earnings in the first quarter, which ended on June 20, were hurt by a “tougher than expected business environment.” Its results would be much below analysts’ expectations, the grocer said.

“Since providing guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call, consumers have become more value focused and cautious in their spending, which has pressured sales and margins greater than anticipated,” Supervalu’s CEO Craig Herkert said in a statement.

The pressure on Supervalu underscores how consumers have become highly conscious of how they spend their money in the long recession — shopping mainly for essential items, and seeking low prices even on those products.

Herkert recently took over the top job at Supervalu, after having worked as the president and CEO for discount giant Wal-Mart’s America’s region, which includes Canada, Puerto Rico and parts of South and Central America.

Also in the basket:

U.S. recession to bottom out this year: OECD

Monsanto earnings fall 14 percent

Rite Aid posts narrower loss, lower revenue

Pepsi and Calbee form food deal in Japan

(Photo/Reuters)

More Americans filed for bankruptcy in May, slammed by job losses and home forclosures, according to the latest data from the American Bankruptcy Institute.

More than 124,800 people sought protection from their creditors in bankruptcy court, up 37 percent from last year.

Business bankruptcies also soared 40 percent in May, according to bankruptcy data provider AACER.

According to AACER’s Mike Bickford, personal and business bankruptcies will continue to rise, even if the economy gets better.

“Bankruptcy always has a lag effect,” said Bickford. “People start filing months after they start having credit problems.”

What do you see in your community?

Check out Abercrombie & Fitch’s falling profits.

The company played a remix of “Cold as Ice” as hold music for its conference call with analysts. It’s hard to tell if it is supposed to be ironic, or if the company is just tone deaf. 
 
The latter could be possible, as Abercrombie has decided to tune out consumer’s expectations that retailers will offer discounts to try to get them in the door.
 
In November, CEO Mike Jeffries said the short-term relief provided by promotions would have the affect of damaging the brand in the long term.  He defended the strategy again on Friday, though the company has cut some prices at its Hollister and abercrombie chains.
 
But if people stop going to your store, do they eventually forget about your brand?
 
Abercrombie’s same-store sales fell 25 percent in the key fourth quarter. Of course, refusing to discount (other than on clearance items) protects profits. Or maybe not. Net income fell 68 percent, though some of the decline was related to a new employment agreement for the CEO.
 
Also in the basket:
 
PepsiCo Q4 profit falls, but matches Wall St view
 
Sears launching online service to connect clients, contractors (Chicago Tribune)
 
Starbucks to sell instant coffee
 
Microsoft to open own stores, take on Apple

Check out people buying only what they use.
 
Remember when every time you went to the store you bought toilet paper, paper towels and other basics just so that you wouldn’t run out?
 
Well, those days appear to be gone.
 
As companies like Colgate-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble report earnings, one thing becoming clear is that consumers are now using up everything they have in their cupboards before buying replacements.
 
Call it “destocking,” “pantry deloading,” or “inventory drawdowns,” but whatever it’s called, it cuts into sales — for retailers and manufacturers. As consumers are using up the shampoo or soup they have on their shelves before buying more, retailers are also getting rid of excess inventory before buying more from manufacturers.
 
With the economy in recession, consumers have every reason to be frugal. On top of that, manufacturers have raised prices over the past two years in order to cope with soaring commodity costs.
 
But with fewer items being purchased, the next question is whether those manufacturers will have to lower prices to maintain market share.
 
Also in the basket:
 
GDP sees biggest drop in 27 years
 
Unilever faces slowdown just as new CEO takes over
 
 (Photo: Reuters)

Want cheap entertainment? No problem.

Hasbro, the second-largest toymaker, thinks it has what cash-strapped shoppers need in 2009: A lineup of new card games priced at around $7.

They include Scrabble Slam and Monopoly Deal, which play off the original board games and aim to entertain stay-at-home consumers in a recession-mired economy.

Hasbro is dancing to the same tune that has swayed rival Mattel, the world’s top toy maker, to tout its moderately-priced toys.

Both companies will unveil their full 2009 lineups at the American International Toy Fair that kicks off on Feb. 15 in New York.

Under wraps until the event, but widely anticipated by analysts to bolster Hasbro’s sales this year, are Hasbro’s toys tied to the “Transformers - Revenge Of The Fallen” and “G.I. Joe -  The Rise of the Cobra” movies set to be released later.

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out Black Friday.

Call it a test of the American consumer’s mettle.
How many will feel confident enough about the economy, and their own future within it, to spend money that is increasingly hard to come by? How many will resist the siren call of steep discounts and sales for even the hottest gadgets, like those available at Apple Inc’s stores?

This Black Friday, such questions are not only central to the future of many of the best known U.S. retailers, but amount to a key indicator of how quickly the country’s consumer-led economy will shrink in the coming months. How deep a recession could it be, how long might it last?

At Shop Talk, our colleagues are out across the country today, talking to scores of shoppers and documenting their stories, the hardships they have seen this year and the fears they voice about the coming year, after the holiday gatherings are over.

Nearly 45 percent of Americans are expected to turn out for the sales that started today and last through the weekend, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Stay tuned for anecdotes and pictures, and our full coverage on Reuters’ Holiday Shopping page. Let us know what you are seeing too.

Also in the basket:

U.S. holiday sales begin before turkey grows cold

UK retail sales plunge back to series low in Nov-CBI

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out the October monthly sales results due this week.

Think of an adjective for “bad” and that pretty much describes Wall Street analysts’ current view for how the month shaped up. 

Retail chains, like Wal-Mart, Costco and J.C. Penney, will release October results on Wednesday and Thursday, and Thomson Reuters is forecasting a decline of 0.1 percent. 

“If the index actually comes in at -0.1 percent, this would be the weakest same-store sales result ever registered since Thomson Reuters began collecting estimates in 2000,” Thomson Reuters said.

Department stores and specialty retailers are expected to be the worst hit, mitigated only slightly by shoppers seeking bargains at discount chains or drugstores. 

“Most Americans have been caught like deer in headlights, not knowing what financial or economic disaster is around the corner,” Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Thomas Filandro wrote in a note. “More and more consumers are broadly pulling back, leaving the retailer with little choice other than to promote.” 

One positive for retailers in October was gas prices. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline, which was $3.63 at the end of September, fell to $2.65 by the end of October, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Also in the basket:

ADM profit soars on higher prices; shares jump (Reuters)

InBev’s Budweiser purchase resolve put to the test (Reuters)

Madison Avenue Takes Hit From Economic Troubles (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)