Retail experts don’t expect this back-to-school season to be anything to write home about, as consumers continue to pare back expenses.
    
But a recent survey cited fewer people cutting back on back-to-school items than last year – 64 percent compared with 71 percent. 
    
“It’s going to be bad but it’s not going to be as bad,” said Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and U.S. retail leader for Deloitte LLP, which conducted the survey, speaking of spending during the season.
 
She pointed to data showing that 1 in 7 consumers — 14 percent — believe the economy is starting to recover.
    
“It was only 14 percent but it was 2 percent last year,” she said. “It’s not a lot for anyone to get optimistic about, by any stretch, but it’s a ray (of hope).”
    
“People have a sense that we’ve been through the worst of it,” Janiak said, noting that people seem to believe another big drop in the economy unlikely.
    
Still, the gloom this year is driven more by a desire to save, as well as worries over job losses.
    
“Last year what was driving people’s concern was these things that would eat into their wallet — higher gas and higher food prices, energy costs,” said Janiak. “This year it’s about what’s in the wallet to begin with — the loss of a job, or fear of that, or intensity on savings to keep what’s in your wallet.” 

Some 22 percent of survey respondents cited “loss of job in household” for their frugality, compared with 12 percent last year, and 17 percent cited “fear of loss of job” compared with 9 percent a year earlier.
    
In June, Deloitte found that the pace of decline in consumer spending appeared to be abating. Its consumer spending index, which tries to track consumer cash flow to point to future consumer spending, rose in June after falling four consecutive months. 
    
The U.S. jobless rate hit 9.5 percent last month, the highest in 26 years, and many economists expect it to hit 10 percent this year.
    
Last week, the National Retail Federation predicted the average U.S. family with kids in school through 12 grade would spend 7.7 percent less than last year, but college students and their families would spend 3 percent more. Nevertheless, overall college spending is expected to decline 4 percent to $30.08 billion due to fewer people planning on attending college this fall.

One surprising note in the Deloitte survey was consumers’ consistent interest in sustainability, Janiak said. Some 41 percent of respondents said they would likely search for green products this season, with nearly a third saying they’d seek out green retailers. The data points were steady from the year-ago survey.
    
“The assumption is the consumer isn’t going to pay attention to that in a down economy. It’s clear they’re still paying attention to it,” said Janiak, acknowledging that the survey does not ask shoppers how much they’re willing to spend on green products.

The survey, conducted between July 6 and July 9, polled a sample of 1,044 consumers online. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the bah-humbug signs emerging for the upcoming holidays.

The impending U.S. holiday shopping season is expected to be a weak one, but the debate is coming down to whether it could end up as one of the worst on record, as consumers show an increasing reluctance to spend.

Government data released on Friday showed consumers continue to put the brakes on spending. Sales at U.S. retail stores fell for a second straight month, with sales of clothing and electronics, which typically see high demand for back-to-school, were weaker in August than July.

On Tuesday, Deloitte forecast holiday retail sales to rise 2.5 percent to 3 percent for the November to January period, less than last year’s 3.4 percent increase and potentially one of the smallest gains since a 2 percent rise in the holiday season of 1991, when the nation had recently emerged from a recession.

On Wednesday,  a Reuters/Zogby survey showed that more than 44 percent of respondents expect to spend either a little less or a lot less on gifts this year than in 2007. Forty-six percent said they would spend about the same and just over 7 percent said they would shell out more.

“This a staggeringly bad number,” said pollster John Zogby, referring to the number of people who said they would spend the same amount on gifts this year.

“You’re still going to have people standing in line at three in the morning at Wal-Mart, but the lines may be thinner this year” on Black Friday, he said.

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(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the back-to-school blues.
 
Nope, it’s not just kids who are likely to find going back to school depressing. Retailers are also likely to find the back-to-school season tough to take.
 
In a new survey by Deloitte, 71 percent of of respondents said they plan to spend less on back-to-school items this year. In fact, almost half plan to reduce their household spending by more than $100.
 
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Higher gas and food prices continue to pressure consumers, Deloitte’s U.S. Retail leader Stacy Janiak said in a news release.
 
“Retailers should focus on areas that will contribute to profitable growth, such as adapting their merchandising and promotional activities to increase loyalty among existing customers and attract new customers,” she said.
 
Among survey findings: 79 percent will buy more back-to-school items on sale, 68 percent will buy more lower-priced items and 46 percent will shop at different — or less expensive — stores than usual.
 
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(Photo: Reuters)

Shoppers loading up their carts may be becoming more wary of the food they pick up from the shelves, according to a food safety survey by Deloitte Consulting LLP.
 
The survey, which polled 1,110 consumers across America on April 21, found that 57 percent of people stopped eating a type of food either permanently or temporarily because of a food recall. 
 
The poll also found a sharp contrast in consumer perceptions of imported food versus domestic food, with 56 percent reporting that they think imported food is “not at all” or “somewhat” safe. Eighty percent said they think food produced domestically is safe.
 
Meat recalls ranked as a top food safety concern. Seventy-eight percent of consumers were concerned about beef recalls, while 67 percent were worried about chicken recalls.
 
Dairy recalls and fresh fruit/vegetable recalls followed at 53 percent each.
 
The results were released as restaurants and retailers began to pull certain types of tomatoes from their menus and shelves after a salmonella scare that has resulted in 145 reported cases and 23 hospitalizations, the U.S. Food and Drug administration said as of Saturday. The largest recall ever of meat in the U.S. occurred in February, mainly involving beef products.
 
Survey respondents also overwhelmingly (89 percent) said they want to see stores sell more fresh fruits and vegetables from local farms, and 69 percent said they were willing to pay slightly more as a result.
 
Full survey results can be found here.

(Phot: Reuters)

The average price for gasoline soared 6.9 cents over the last week to a record of $3.79 a gallon. That means the national price for regular, self-service gasoline is now up 57 cents from a year ago, according to data relased by the federal Energy Information Administration on Monday.

With personal income stagnating, consumers are finding it hard to offset the ongoing spike in gas prices.

According to the latest Discover U.S. Spending Monitor, which polls consumers on their spending habits, 54 percent of consumers are cutting back on basic living expenses, like grocery shopping, to compensate for the high cost of gas. 

Nearly 55 percent are cutting back on discretionary spending, like eating out and going to the movies. 

High gasoline prices have soured economic sentiment. Seventy-four percent of consumers think the U.S. economy is getting worse – up two and a half points from the week before, according to the survey. 

In addition, nearly 54 percent think that their personal finances are deteriorating.   

Meanwhile, the Deloitte Research Leading Index of Consumer Spending has reached its lowest level since 2001. The index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

“This significant drop in the Index gives us empirical data of what many have long suspected,” said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Deloitte Research and author of the monthly index. “The current economic downturn is as significant as anything we have seen since the last recession.”  

Deloitte said retailers are now trying to aggressively court consumers to get them to spend their tax rebate checks in their stores.

But unless they sell food of fuel, retailers could face big challenges in that arena.

According to the most recent survey by the National Retail Federation,  U.S. consumers will use much of their tax rebate money to pay for increasingly expensive gas and groceries, rather than spend it on electronics or clothes. 

(Photo: Reuters — “A man walks beneath a sign advertising the price of gasoline at a filling station in San Francisco, California on April 28, 2008)