Retailers, consumers and prices
Check out this cheerful forecast form Societe Generale.
The French bank’s cross asset strategist, Albert Edwards, said the U.S. economy is likely to enter a depression. Oh, and look out for a global trade war with China.
For retailers reeling from the worst holiday season in four decades, the forecast cannot be welcome.
Edwards predicts the S&P 500 is set to fall another 40 percent from recent levels.
But there could be another problem looming, he wrote in a research note.
“It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a rerun of the Great Depression,” he said.
There you have it. Happy New Year.
Also in the basket:
Black Angus Steakhouse parent files for bankruptcy
Circuit City still in talks over potential sale
Deal-form-hell award to Landry’s (New York Times DealBook)
These could rise in frequency in the coming months, according to mental health experts, as the U.S. recession leaves consumers confronting a harsh new economic reality — and the prospect of living within diminished means.
“People start seeing their economic situation change, and it stimulates a sort of survival panic,” said Gaetano Vaccaro, deputy clinical director of Moonview Sanctuary, which treats patients for emotional and behavioral disorders.