Check out the grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, a day after dozens of retail chains reported lackluster October sales.

U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 190,000 jobs in October, driving the jobless rate to 10.2 percent, the highest in more than 26 years.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the monthly unemployment rate to edge up to 9.9 percent from 9.8 percent in September.

While job losses have been mounting for months, some analysts and economists say 10 percent unemployment could deal a new psychological blow to U.S. consumers who might previously have felt that the economy was beginning to stabilize.   

Just last week, news that the U.S. economy had returned to growth instilled hope for a rebound in consumer spending. But the latest reports on retail sales and joblessness suggest that such a result may be further down the road.

So, no matter what gimmicks retailers resort to – be it $10 DVDs or upscale wines – the customer, spooked by an almost daily dose of gloomy economic data, may still be unwilling to open their wallets.

Also in the basket:

Target fights Wal-Mart with $10 offers on DVDs

Hermes outshines rivals, optimistic about Christmas

Kraft in waiting game as Cadbury deadline nears

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out what’s coming around again this holiday season.

It’s that gift you gave someone last year.

According to a holiday shopping poll conducted by Consumer Reports in October, 36 percent of Americans say they have “recycled” a holiday gift. That’s up from 31 percent in 2008 and 24 percent in 2007.

Those more likely to re-gift include women, adults under 55 years old, residents of the U.S. West and people with children under the age of 12.

Want to prevent your gifts from making the rounds again?

Skip presents like socks, slippers and ties, which were on the list of most disappointing 2008 holiday gifts, according to the survey.

Or, for a virtually fail-safe bet, try cold hard cash.

Also in the basket:

P&G, Colgate quarterly results top expectations

Burger King profit, revenue miss expectations

Kellogg 3rd-quarter profit rises, tops Street view

Elizabeth Arden posts surprise quarterly profit

Fashion’s Night Out to be Repeated in 2010 (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo:Reuters)

Check out which company Wall Street keeps underestimating.

It’s Jones Apparel. The retailer and apparel maker once again “reported a much higher-than-expected” quarterly profit. Last quarter, Reuters said the company “beat estimates handsomely.” The quarter before that it was “easily beat estimates.”

Heck, even in the fourth quarter, when almost all retailers and apparel makers were hammered by the recession and credit meltdown, the company reported a “smaller-than-expected” quarterly loss.

Aside from demonstrating that Reuters has several different ways of saying “big earnings beat,” the reports also raise this question: “Why does Wall Street keep missing the mark on Jones?”

One reason could be that the company itself still cannot quite figure out if business is up or down.

For the current quarter — which includes the all-important holiday season — it expects same-store sales to range anywhere from a drop of 2.5 percent to a rise of 2.5 percent.

So come February, you might see the words “eclipsed Wall Street Estimates” connected with Jones earnings.

Also in the basket:

Coke Enterprises higher profit tops expectations

Newell profit beats estimates, sales weak

Designer Ecko slam-dunked (N.Y. Post)

H&M eyes expansion in U.S. and Canada (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Jones Apparel website)

America has breathed a sigh of relief since April, as the summer selling season kicked in and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit nudged consumers off the fence into the most affordable market in years. These factors, along with easy financing from the Federal Housing Administration, was the first leg up for the "W," said Lisa Marquis Jackson, a vice president at John Burns.

The onset of the weaker selling months, a building pipeline of foreclosures and expiration of the tax-credit on Nov. 30 will likely bring rising prices upturn to a halt, creating a "false peak" and fresh downturn, the group says. Federal efforts have slowed foreclosures but have not addressed many issues including unemployment and underwater mortgages, leaving a heavy "shadow inventory" set to knock prices to fresh lows.

An extension to the first-time homebuyer credit -- bandied about by the Obama administration -- may soften, but not prevent another leg down, the John Burns group said.

"We anticipate that foreclosure activity will remain very high at least through 2012, with the majority of future foreclosures coming as a result of job losses," John Burns, president of the group, said in an outlook.

The second downward thrust to the "W" could also come as the FHA clamps down on credit, they said. Signs of stability in the economy will push mortgage rates higher, meantime.

Once a new, lower bottom in prices is realized in mid-2010, America can see a gradual appreciation thereafter because of weak employment, sluggish economic recovery and continued stress on the banking system, the group predicted.

Americans may have become more confident in the economy but they haven’t started spending heavily again — and that could be bad new for retailers this holiday season.

Discover’s U.S. Spending Monitor for September rose for the second straight month, climbing 2 points to 89 (based out of 100).  Thirty-three percent of respondents said they felt economic conditions were improving, a Monitor high and a 2-point rise from August.

When asked to rate their own financial fitness, 33 percent rated it as good or excellent, up a point from August and the highest percentage in four months. On the flipside, 48 percent said their finances were getting worse, also up a point from the previous month.

Consumers’ spending intentions remained flat.  Many industry watchers have said that the recession has created a “new normal” characterized by a more frugal lifestyle and fewer shopping sprees. Even those people who have remained financially secure, and are not among the 9.8 percent of Americans who are unemployed, have reset spending habits.

To that end, WSL Strategic Retail said that only 17 percent of shoppers plan to go back to shopping the way they used to.

“There appears to be no indication consumers are willing to increase their spending, despite a Monitor-high number of them who feel the economy is getting better,” said Julie Loeger, senior vice president of brand and product management for Discover.
 
That could cause headaches for retailers, who are hoping that consumers will start shopping again heading into the all-important holiday season.
 
For the sixth consecutive month, less than half of consumers said that they expected to have money left over after paying monthly bills.
 
One bright spot, if you could call it that, is that only 43 percent of respondents felt economic conditions are getting worse. Forty-six percent felt that way in August. 

(Photo/Reuters)

Models at New York Fashion Week are facing an even more competitive environment as many designers continue to down-size and opt for cheaper presentations over runway shows, said Marques Nolan, an agent for Code Model Management.

Model Emily Fox, backstage before the Academy of Arts runway show, said designers are holding less castings making it even more competitive than usual to get modeling work.   It has also become more common for models to be paid in clothes rather than money, she said.

Another model, Alice Gibb, said she was told last minute she wouldn't be needed for a show she had been booked for.

Check out Kraft slashing its supplier base.
 
Yes, Kraft is doing more than just trying to buy Cadbury.  The company is still operating its business and part of that is the process of looking to improve its margins.
 
Kraft told Reuters it plans to cut its supplier base to less than half of its 70,000 companies.
 
“We’re essentially taking a white sheet of paper and saying ‘what is the right number of suppliers to support this particular category, who are they, what is the capability we need for now and in the future, and does the current supplier base have that,’ ” Julia Brown, senior vice president of procurement at Kraft, said.
 
Suppliers have been under pressure in recent years as companies look to work with fewer vendors that operate more as partners.
 
The recovery is actually expected to make things worse for some suppliers as they find out they cannot get financing to ramp up operations as their customers start looking to buy from them again.
 
The winners will likely find even more business as they work closer with companies.
 
For the loser, it could be “supply-side wreckonomics.”
 
Also in the basket:
 
McDonald’s same-store sales up 2.2 percent
 
Talbots loss narrower than expected
 
Jewelry retailer Signet profit tops estimates
 
Speedo extends sponsor deal with Michael Phelps

(Reuters photo)

Check out the sluggish sales at Walgreen.
 
People filled more prescriptions at the drugstore chain, but didn’t buy much else.  August same-store sales rose only 1.9 percent, less than analysts had anticipated.
 
While many retailers have been experiencing sales declines, drugstores have generally done much better because an aging population  has been buying more prescriptions drugs.
 
But Walgreen’s sales of general merchandise fell 1.3 percent.
 
That could be a bad sign for other retailers that report sales this week. Walgreen is the third-largest retailer that reports monthly sales, behind only Costco and Target.
 
Overall, analysts are expecting a 3.8 percent drop in same-store sales when retailers report this week.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Zale identifies prior adjustments, delays results
 
Jos A Bank Q2 results top Street

Brown-Forman profit tops view
 
Tesco uses weather to predict sales (N.Y. Times)
 
Retail theft soars in economic downturn (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out cost cuts at Tiffany.
 
it is (was?) a recession and people aren’t buying as much expensive jewelry. Sales at Tiffany fell 16 percent in the latest quarter.
 
But even though profit also fell almost 30 percent, Tiffany shares still rose.
 
Cost cuts helped Tiffany beat analyst expectations. The company said SG&A expenses fell 14 percent. It’s also slowing its pace of store openings because of the recession.
 
“Breakfast at Tiffany’s?” Right now, it might be an Egg McMuffin and coffee from the deli on the corner.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Consumer spending lifted by “cash-for-clunkers”
 
L’Oreal H1 beats forecasts, ready to make purchase

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the Retail Metrics earnings snapshot.

About two-thirds of the way through the second-quarter earnings season, retailers are beating earnings expectations by 5.1 percent on average, the research firm said.

But those were pretty low expectations and earnings are still down 6.4 percent compared with a year earlier. It is even worse when Wal-Mart is excluded. Then earnings are down 9.8 percent, Retail Metrics said.

Revenue is also down 2 percent.

With 83 retailers reporting, 41 percent had year-over-year earnings gains and 57 percent had declines.

Auto parts, drug and apparel retailers were among the groups seeing earnings gains, while teen apparel, department stores and home building supply stores were among the worst performers, Retail Metrics said.

Also in the basket:

Chico’s profit rises,  meets street view

Staples profit falls; says won’t give outlook

Burger King profit rises

Borders posts wider-than-expected loss

(Reuters photo)