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Retailers, consumers and prices

September 3rd, 2008

The view from the executive suite

Posted by: Brad Dorfman

    Consumer products and retail executive spoke at conferences hosted by, respectively, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday. Here is some of what they had to say:

    “There is no option not to take price,” — David Moran, president and CEO, Heinz North America, said on the the likelihood of more price increases.
    
    “The macroeconomic conditions will be worse than they were 12 months ago. Our expectation is for caution,” — Tim Boyle, chief  executive of Columbia Sportswear, when asked how the environment six to 12 months ahead looks to the sportswear and outerwear maker.
    
    “We think that despite what is happening in the environment, to neglect your store base and not keep it competitive is the wrong thing to do,”  — Kohl’s Chairman Larry Montgomery on the department store’s is commitment to remodel 36 stores in 2008 and about 60 in 2009, as well as opening 50 new stores next year.
    
    “We don’t think it’s as dire as other people are saying. We’re fairly resistant. Eighty-five percent of our sales are in RX (prescriptions). The remainder are in toothpaste and deodorant and hopefully people will keep buying those.” –    Thomas Ryan CVS Caremark chief executive and board president.

    “No company’s ever shrank to greatness,” –  Molson Coors Brewing Co’s chief executive Peter Swinburn in explaining that cost cuts are important, but can not be a company’s only strategy. 

August 29th, 2008

Check Out Line: Wal-Mart cuts prices in Canada

Posted by: Aarthi Sivaraman

walmart-milk.jpgCheck Out Wal-Mart’s price cuts for eggs, milk, butter and bread in Ontario, Canada.

If you are counting pennies but still want that morning coffee and omelet, you can now buy one- and two-liter milk cartons for $1.77 and $2.97 respectively or a dozen large eggs for $1.97, if you shop at Wal-Mart’s Ontario stores.

The world’s top discount retailer said that besides cutting prices for those staple food items in its Ontario stores, it will also slash prices on hundreds of products across Canada in September, after a round of different price cuts in August.

Wal-Mart’s decision is yet another nod to the fact that more and more shoppers are squeezed for money these days.

“With looming back-to-school costs, gas-pump woes, food-price hikes, and a struggling provincial economy, times are tough for many of our Ontario customers,” said Vi Konkle, Wal-Mart Canada’s chief customer officer, in a release.

It certainly looks like Wal-Mart is paying close attention to consumers’ money-saving actions, such as drawing up shopping lists to avoid spending extra money, consolidating shopping trips, avoiding costly items and buying cheaper store-brand products.

Konkle said milk, butter, eggs and bread feature prominently on people’s shopping lists, and that is why they’re getting their prices cut.

With that move in Canada, how far behind is a round of price reductions in the United States?

Also in the basket:

Starbucks says more discounts, promotions coming

Suitmakers hit hard as retailers want discounts

Tiffany U.S. fortunes could turn at holidays

Linens ‘n Things may file restructuring on Friday - NY Post

(Photo: Reuters)

August 13th, 2008

Check Out Line: The short-lived tax rebate boost

Posted by: Nicole Maestri

sale.jpgCheck out the fading influence of tax rebate checks.

Tax rebate checks helped boost June retail sales but their influence appears to have petered out by July, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The figures showed that total sales at U.S. retailers declined 0.1 percent in July, which was in line with forecasts made by Wall Street economists. A big reason for the drop was a fall off in auto sales. Auto and auto parts sales fell 2.4 percent in the month, their biggest drop since April, and were off a whopping 10.5 percent from year-ago levels. 

But excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.4 percent in July. That was roughly in line with forecasts, but down from a 0.9 percent rise in June. 

Economists said before the numbers were released that spending has been supported by government stimulus checks but that the stimulus effect was waning in July because most of the checks already have been issued. Meanwhile, prices for many food items are on the rise and there was only a slight moderation in gasoline prices during the month. 

The Commerce Department said gasoline sales in July were up 0.8 percent after a 4 percent June jump. But reflecting higher prices, gasoline sales were 24.6 percent higher than in July last year. 

Excluding gasoline, retail sales in July fell 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent June decline.

Also in the basket:

Liz Claiborne profit tops view; narrows ‘08 range

Yearly import prices post biggest rise in 26 years

CVS Caremark to buy Longs in $2.54 bln deal

Best Buy to sell iPhone in the U.S.

Mechanism for Credit Is Still Stuck  (NYT)               

(Photo: Reuters)

July 30th, 2008

Check Out Line: International strength pretties up Avon profit

Posted by: Lisa Baertlein

lips1.jpgCheck out how international sales and the weak dollar continue to lift quarterly results at U.S. companies.

Second-quarter profit at cosmetics firm Avon Products Inc more than doubled, as demand in Latin America and other overseas markets more than made up for sagging U. S. results.

Office Depot posted a 6 percent drop in North American retail sales, but a 13 percent rise in international sales during in its most recent quarter.

Still, investors are wondering when and if the United States’ economic malaise will spread to markets like Europe, Asia and Latin America.

Some cracks are already showing. Britain’s stressed housing market is putting pressure on consumer spending and Spain has reported a plunge in June retail sales amid a severe economic slowdown.

Also in the basket:

Los Angeles City Council passes fast-food ban

Oil slide, US glimmers of hope boost stocks

Jones Apparel 2nd-qtr profit tops estimates

(Photo: REUTERS/Jo Yong-Hak)

July 22nd, 2008

Check Out Line: How oil prices and consumers influence earnings

Posted by: Aarthi Sivaraman

consumer.jpgCheck Out how the spiking price of oil and lifeless consumer spending are affecting more consumer companies.

Supervalu, whose chains include Albertsons and Save-A-Lot, didn’t see any increase in its total quarterly sales. Its food sales were actually down 0.7 percent, but the company saved itself in part with lower expenses, and reported a higher quarterly profit.

But the No.3 U.S. supermarket chain cut its full-year outlook, acknowledging the effect of tight consumer spending, as shoppers are increasingly squeezed by high gasoline and food prices.

Pizza chain Domino’s didn’t think much of its situation either. 

The company’s second-quarter profit, excluding some items, missed Wall Street’s estimates and its Chief Executive David Brandon said returning to positive same-store sales in the United States has “proven difficult” for the company. The problem? The same as it is for others– high costs, struggling consumers.

“We are in a turnaround mode, which is not fun,” Brandon said.

No fun indeed, as is the case for most companies these days.

 Also in the basket:

SunTrust sells big Coke stake, profit falls 21 percent

Hermes sees no reason to join CAC 40, shares fall

Unilever agrees to Bertolli olive oil/vinegar sale

U.S. back-to-college spending to fall this year - survey

Protests, ambush marketing hurt Olympic brand

Why Dora the Explorer Can’t Come To Your Kid’s Birthday Party - (WSJ)

(Photo: Reuters)

June 30th, 2008

Check Out Line: Souped up

Posted by: Karen Jacobs

campbellsoup.jpgConsumers may be cutting back on restaurant visits and car purchases but they are still buying crackers and juice, as Campbell Soup raised its full-year profit forecast.

The maker of Pepperidge Farm cookies and V8 juice has raised prices to offset soaring commodity costs and announced a $1.2 billion share buyback program that should help boost shares.

In more news on consumer staples, UBS is recommending that investors look to price leaders such as Wal-Mart Stores and Kroger, saying they are poised to gain market share as consumers shop for the best deals. That firm downgraded shares of grocers Safeway and Whole Foods.

Also in the basket:

Spending less at the ballpark

Growth in negative equity pressures homeowners

June 25th, 2008

Check Out Line: Woe be the consumer

Posted by: Brad Dorfman

clouds1.jpgCheck out a couple more bleak consumer signals.
 
The Conference Board on Tuesday said that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in 16 years. One analyst, Dresdner Kleinwort Securities’ Dana Saporta, said the sentiment gauge has dropped 55 percent from its peak in July 2007, a bigger decline that seen after the Sept. 11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina.
 
So even with consumers getting those tax rebate checks, they might not be in much of a mood to ramp up spending in the face of soaring gasoline and higher food prices.
 
In fact, Citigroup retail analyst Deborah Weinswig lowered her estimates on department stores and several other retailers today.
 
“While (the second and third quarter)  could benefit from the tax stimulus checks, we expect current pressures facing the consumer, including across-the-board inflation, housing and credit concerns, and a deteriorating employment picture, to continue to weigh on consumers for at least the remainder of 2008 into 2009,” she said in a research note. 
 
Consumers are also showing some signs of cutting back at the grocery store.
 
Kroger said on Tuesday that it has seen an increase in sales of its private-label brands. That could be bad news for makers of brand-name foods. Both brand-name and private-label food prices have gone up as manufacturers try to offset soaring commodity costs.
 
The branded food companies have argued that as long as the gap between their price and the price of private-label products does not get out of whack, then consumers will still see the value in the branded products.
 
But if consumers are getting to the point where they just need to save money, even if it means giving up the brands they love, that could squeeze the big food companies.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Hollywood Labor strike: Retailers dread impact of walkout by actors (WWD)
 
Athletic-Wear Firm’s Olympic Dream Fades (Wall Street Journal
 
(Photo: Reuters)

June 24th, 2008

Check Out Line: Kroger Kroger rides lower prices, gas discounts to higher profit

Posted by: Aarthi Sivaraman

kroger.jpgCheck Out the quarterly profit at Kroger Co.

The largest U.S. grocery chain posted a higher quarterly profit on Tuesday, thanks to its emphasis on lower prices and gasoline discounts – music to its shoppers’ ears and higher sales for itself.

“Kroger continues to help customers stretch their budgets in a number of ways, including lower prices and our expanded generic drug and gas discount programs,” chief executive David Dillon said in a statement.

The price cuts, he said, were helping Kroger’s customers save $1 billion annually, at a time when shoppers deem every last dollar precious, as they face skyrocketing prices for necessities such as gasoline.

Kroger also raised its outlook for the full year, based on the strength of the results from the reported quarter.

Also in the basket:

ConAgra sees higher than expected fourth quarter profit

Dollar Tree recalls 470,000 China-made glue guns

Williams-Sonoma is trimming its catalog mailings (WSJ - subscription needed)

 J.C. Penney Faults Fake Ad on YouTube (WSJ - subscription needed)

(Photo: Reuters)

June 11th, 2008

Tomatoes got you scared? Check out these Web sites

Posted by: Lisa Baertlein

Food safety officials in the United States are still searching for the cause of a Salmonella outbreak that has sickened 167 people in 17 states and is believed to be linked to raw round, plum and Roma tomatoes. 

If you want to see whether your state has reported a case, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a site that shows the state-by-state breakdown.

Restaurants and grocery stores have dropped tomatoes like hot potatoes, and many consumers are avoiding them until they get an all-clear from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Many people don’t know that the FDA has published a list of states and countries whose tomatoes are not linked to the outbreak.

FDA also has a site with tips on safe food handling techniques.

June 6th, 2008

Check Out Line: Jobs jolt

Posted by: Brad Dorfman

clouds.jpgCheck out the loss of more retail jobs. 

Another 27,000 retail jobs disappeared in May, according to the U.S. government’s monthly employment report. That makes 152,000 retail jobs eliminated since the beginning of the year.
 
Overall, nonfarm payrolls fell by 49,000. But even more worrisome for the economy and for retailers could be the jump in the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent. That half-point jump was the largest such move in 22 years and brought the unemployment rate to its highest level in 3-1/2 years.
 
Retailer’s May sales reports yesterday were mostly better than expected, causing some analysts to think they could signal the beginning of a consumer turnaround.
 
But others said it just showed a blip in spending that was caused by the tax rebate checks consumers have begun to receive. 
 
Economic concerns could still linger after all that stimulus money is gone, they say, and things could get worse if consumers, already hit by $4-a-gallon gasoline, soaring food prices and falling home values really start to worry about their jobs.

Wonder how a half-point jump in the unemployment number plays into that?
 
Meanwhile, to take your mind of the jobs report, there’s always the company pep rally that masquerades as the Wal-Mart annual meeting. The world’s-largest retailer flies in employees from all around the world to help pack the basketball arena at the shopper1.jpgUniversity of Arkansas, where stars entertain the crowd (this year’s acts include Miley Cyrus), everybody does the Wal-Mart cheer, and, oh yeah, shareholders get to ask questions.
 
Also in the basket:
 
New Wal-Mart director may herald changing of the guard (Wall Street Journal, subscription required)
 
Target grows makeup artist brands, adds testers (WWD)

 (Photos: Reuters)