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Retailers, consumers and prices

December 12th, 2008

Check Out Line: Falling gas prices mean falling retail sales

Posted by: Nicole Maestri

USACheck out the fifth straight drop in U.S. retail sales.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 1.8 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted $355.66 billion following a revised 2.9 percent plunge in October.

Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales were down 1.6 percent in November after a revised 2.4 percent October fall.

One reason for the decline (besides the struggling consumer) – gas prices.  Gasoline sales plummeted a record 14.7 percent after falling 12.9 percent in October, the data showed. Prices at the pump have fallen significantly and that is reflected in the retail sales report, which compiles total sales by gasoline stations.

The data also showed that sales of furniture, electronics and clothing were up in November after decreasing in October.  Looks like those Black Friday deals were able to rouse skittish consumers into a spending mode.

But the question remains — how much have retailers put profits at risk to gain sales?

Also in the basket:

KB Toys files for bankruptcy

Consumer Anxiety in China Set to Jolt Economy (WWD, subscription required)

Rising Retailer Threat: Liquidations  (WSJ, subscription required)

(Photo/Reuters)

November 4th, 2008

Check Out Line: October sales — worst since 2000?

Posted by: Nicole Maestri

Check out the October monthly sales results due this week.

Think of an adjective for “bad” and that pretty much describes Wall Street analysts’ current view for how the month shaped up. 

Retail chains, like Wal-Mart, Costco and J.C. Penney, will release October results on Wednesday and Thursday, and Thomson Reuters is forecasting a decline of 0.1 percent. 

“If the index actually comes in at -0.1 percent, this would be the weakest same-store sales result ever registered since Thomson Reuters began collecting estimates in 2000,” Thomson Reuters said.

Department stores and specialty retailers are expected to be the worst hit, mitigated only slightly by shoppers seeking bargains at discount chains or drugstores. 

“Most Americans have been caught like deer in headlights, not knowing what financial or economic disaster is around the corner,” Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Thomas Filandro wrote in a note. “More and more consumers are broadly pulling back, leaving the retailer with little choice other than to promote.” 

One positive for retailers in October was gas prices. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline, which was $3.63 at the end of September, fell to $2.65 by the end of October, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Also in the basket:

ADM profit soars on higher prices; shares jump (Reuters)

InBev’s Budweiser purchase resolve put to the test (Reuters)

Madison Avenue Takes Hit From Economic Troubles (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)

September 8th, 2008

Check Out Line: Marlboro maker investing in smokeless tobacco

Posted by: Aarthi Sivaraman

cigarette.jpgCheck Out Altria Group’s $10.4 billion offer to buy UST Inc.

While rumors of the deal were reported last week, Altria, the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, issued its official offer on Monday to buy UST, the largest U.S. smokeless tobacco maker, for $69.50 a share in cash plus $1.3 billion in debt on Monday.  

Buying UST, which also owns Ste. Michelle Wine Estates, would be a quick way for Altria to reach into the growing smokeless tobacco market, as it seeks ways to diversify from the declining U.S. cigarette market.

But things aren’t that simple. While UST dominates the U.S. smokeless tobacco market, its main brands Skoal and Copenhagen are losing market share as people trade down to cheaper brands amid surging gas prices and a weak U.S. economy.

Price cuts is one way out for UST, according to some analysts, but others question if Altria will be able to do that.

Also in the basket:

Fashion show music speaks volumes about brands 

Vintage jewels gain popularity as investments

Adidas snags Russian football deal from Nike

Macy’s Launches Own Jewelry Line — WWD (subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)

August 18th, 2008

“I’m okay, you’re okay,” the weak economy version

Posted by: Brad Dorfman

petrol.jpgApparently, it’s chic to save money. Soaring gas and food prices, falling home values and deteriorating stock portfolios will do that.
 
According to a survey by WSL Strategic Retail, 56 percent of people said they “feel proud of all the little ways I’ve found to save money and pay for rising food and gas prices.”
 
It’s good that they feel proud, because 73 percent said they feel they are more careful about shopping now than a year ago.
 
Meanwhile, 63 percent of women said they avoid going to stores where they know they will overspend. Those stores include specialty clothing retailers (64 percent) and department stores (56 percent)
 
And of all surveyed, 25 percent said they are buying some new things for the home, since they are spending so much time there.

(Photo: Reuters)