Retailers, listen up. A survey from Discover shows that more consumers believe economic conditions are still getting worse.
 
Discover’s U.S. Spending Monitor for October fell 3.2 points to 85.8 (that’s out of 100, which is where the index started in May 2007).
 
Forty-six percent felt economic conditions were getting worse. That’s up 3 points from September and the first time the survey has seen an increase since July.

Slightly more women (58 percent) than men (53 percent) rated the economy as poor. Overall, 56 percent called the economy poor, up from 52 percent in September.
 
“The Monitor has always shown that women tend to be less optimistic than men about the economy and their finances,” said Julie Loeger, senior vice president of brand and product management for Discover.  “But the record jump in the number of women rating the economy as poor and the pessimism over the current state of their finances may indicate a weak holiday shopping season ahead.”

The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor is based on interviews with 8,200 U.S. adults conducted thoughout October.

Nearly 63 percent of 5,000 consumers surveyed toward the end October plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year. That’s in line with last year’s projections, and we all know how the winter of 2008 turned out.

For the seventh month in a row less than half of consumers said they expected to have money left over after paying their monthly bills. Just 44 percent said they expected to have money left over, down 3 points from September.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Agriculture Department said more Americans than ever are receiving food stamp assistance, while personal spending fell 0.5 percent in September.
 
“Consumers simply don’t seem to have the economic or financial confidence right now to reverse course, which is not good news for retailers,” said Loeger.

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out what’s coming around again this holiday season.

It’s that gift you gave someone last year.

According to a holiday shopping poll conducted by Consumer Reports in October, 36 percent of Americans say they have “recycled” a holiday gift. That’s up from 31 percent in 2008 and 24 percent in 2007.

Those more likely to re-gift include women, adults under 55 years old, residents of the U.S. West and people with children under the age of 12.

Want to prevent your gifts from making the rounds again?

Skip presents like socks, slippers and ties, which were on the list of most disappointing 2008 holiday gifts, according to the survey.

Or, for a virtually fail-safe bet, try cold hard cash.

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(Photo:Reuters)

Check Out a new survey by market research firm NPD Group that says this year’s winter holiday will be better than last year’s but still not that merry. 

Thirty percent of consumers who responded to the survey said they planned to spend less on holiday gifts this year, up from 26 percent last year.

“That 4 percent increase is certainly a sign of the times,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group, based in Port Washington, New York. “On the other hand, that 4 percent is not s dramatic as it could have been. I think consumers will be looking for the right gift, rather than the most extravagant or expensive one.”

Cohen forecast total holiday sales to grow a modest 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent from last year, and said consumers are likely to favor more traditional gift items this year.

Sweaters, fragrances, music, books, movies, and wallets, are expected to be popular gifts,  Cohen. said.  ”We are also seeing makeup and TVs showing signs of growth. Other stand-outs are notebooks/netbooks. They have been growing and will continue to grow through the holiday.” 

Another bright spot was apparel, with 49 percent of respondents saying they planned to buy articles of clothing as a gift. That was steady with consumers’ intentions from last year.

“That is good news for apparel,” Cohen said. “Its multi-year slip has stabilized this year.”

The toy category slipped, however, with 34 percent of respondents saying they planned to buy toys this year, down from 37 percent last year. About 29 percent of respondents said they planned to buy movies, steady with last year.

People who said they planned to buy books and electronics each rose 1 percentage point to 28 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

In terms of motivating shoppers, NPD said “value” will be the prime motivator, with 62 percent of respondents saying value would play a big role in determining what and where they purchase. About 61 percent said they would be motivated by a “special sale,” and 50 percent cited a “convenient location”.

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(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the unexpected increase in September same-store sales at U.S. retailers.

Providing hope that demand may be improving ahead of the holiday shopping season, retailers posted a surprise 0.6 percent increase last month in stores open at least a year, instead of the 1.1 percent decline analysts had expected.

And International Council of Shopping Centers sees October same-store sales even with a year ago. TJX Cos, which operates the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, cited strong momentum heading into October.

“The consumer is dipping their toe back into the discretionary waters right now, but just their toe,” said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

Among the retailers posting better-than-expected results were Aeropostale, Kohl’s, Children’s Place and American Eagle Outfitters. Many others posted declines that were not as weak as expected.

While this year’s later Labor Day holiday pushed a good chunk of sales from August into September, analysts had wondered if rising unemployment would weigh more heavily on spending.  However, sales of clothing for the back-to-school season fueled many retailers’ performances, and the number of U.S. workers filing jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

But the economy is not out of the woods yet. Holiday spending could be further constrained by consumer aversion to debt, as total U.S. consumer credit posted a deeper-than-expected drop in August, suggesting consumers are opting to cut debt rather than spend.

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(Reuters photo)

Check out the latest retail forecast.

The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to fall for the second consecutive year, but this year’s drop should not be as steep as it was last year.

The retail industry trade group expects retail sales in November and December combined to slip 1 percent to $437.6 billion.  Last year, such sales fell 3.4 percent to $441.97 billion.

Last month, the International Council of Shopping Centers took a more bullish tone.  That group said U.S. holiday season sales should rise about 1 percent to 2 percent.

Taking a look back, analysts expect to see that September sales at stores open at least a year fell 1 percent, on average, at the 30 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters.  Meanwhile, U.S. chain store sales fell 1.9 percent last week, according to data from Redbook Research.

We’ll find out about September sales later this week, but even Santa will have to wait a few more months to see if either trade group was right about holiday spending.

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(Reuters photo)

Hey Brian Dunn, CEO of gadget lover's cathedral top electronics retailer Best Buy, what's on your short list of five great bang-for-your-buck devices for this holiday season?
(Thanks to the CNN Money reporter for asking this question at a press conference today)

DUNN: My short list?

* (First), on my personal short list -- a netbook is definitely on my short list - and by the way it's a companion device. It's lightweight, it's small, it's great to take on a quick trip.
* (Second) I think the HD Instinct is a very interesting smartphone. [Mediafile: That's Samsung's Instinct HD]
* (Third) I love my Flip HD camcorder. That's a great piece.
* Four, I really love the Ultra Thin OLED TVs are cool. [Mediafile: Um, cool yes. Bang for Buck? At about $2,000 for an 11-inch screen, let's just leave it at cool and move on. mkay?]
* The fifth one, of course, is a gift card , that I can give to the people I love, so they can get whatever it is they want.

Well played, Brian. Well Played.

Check out toy prices falling north of the border.

Walmart Canada said it is dropping the price of some popular toys to $10 (Canadian dollars that is) — a price cut of up to 67 percent in some cases – and new toys will be reduced to $10 every week between now and Christmas.

For instance, it said Transformers Universe, which is regularly priced at $29.92, is being cut to $10, as is Mega Bloks’ Builder Racer that usually sells for $24.96.

The move echoes price cuts announced by Walmart U.S. on Oct. 1 last year, when it slashed prices on popular toys — like Barbie dolls and Tonka trunks — to $10 each.

“We are starting our Christmas toy price cuts earlier than ever, across more toys than ever before,” said Jim Thompson, Walmart Canada’s senior-vice president of merchandise and operations.

He cited research that was conducted for the retailer showing many Canadians plan to buy items on sale to help them stay on budget this holiday shopping season, and many will spread the expense of their holiday shopping over a longer period of time to avoid large post-Christmas bills.

It can now only be a matter of time before Walmart U.S. rolls out its holiday toy plans.

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(Photo: Reuters)

Check out some shoppers saving for holiday gifts.

Yes, it is still summer, but a comparison shopping Web site decided to find out how recession-weary shoppers feel about spending for the upcoming winter holidays.
 
Just over 75 percent of respondents to PriceGrabber.com’s recent survey said they are more concerned about the cost of holiday gift-giving this year.  So, how many are starting to save earlier?  Only 41.1 percent.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the survey from PriceGrabber.com:
 
Compared to the 2008 holiday season, are you more concerned about the cost of holiday gift-giving this year because of the recession?
 
35.2% Yes, I am highly concerned
40.1% Yes, I am moderately concerned
24.7% No, I am not at all concerned
 
Are you planning to start saving money for holiday gift-giving earlier than last year because of the recession?

41.1% Yes, I am planning to start saving money earlier than last year
20.9% No, I am planning to start saving money at the same time as last year
2.2% No, I am planning to start saving money later than last year
35.8% No, I do not save money for holiday gift-giving
 
When do you expect to start saving money for holiday gift-giving for the 2009 holiday season?
 
17.4% July
15.2% August
15.3% September
9.7% October
5.7% November
0.9% December

And, the group with the largest number of responses to that question — 35.8% — said they do not save money for holiday gift-giving.
 
The survey of 1,777 online consumers was conducted July 20 to Aug. 10.

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(Reuters photo)

Santa’s not getting any rest this year.

After U.S. retailers posted the longest running decline in same-store sales in nearly a decade, Sears, Kmart and Toys R Us announced Christmas-themed sales for the month of July.  While actual sale dates and locations vary among the three chains, the event has drawn a lot of attention from news media, which had the once-in-a-year joy of headlining a story with “Christmas in July.”

Not to be outdone, Disney has sent a train to 36 states around the country to promote its new animated film “A Christmas Carol,” slated for release this November.  Yes, November.

The re-purposed Amtrak train is filled to the brim with Disney Christmas items, the latest in cinematic 3D audio and video equipment, a lot of HP computers, and even artifacts on loan from the Charles Dickens Museum.  Oh, and it has a picture of Ebeneezer Scrooge on the front.

Whether any of these campaigns will work is anyone’s guess.  But for now, at least, it gives us all a chance to laugh and play and maybe even listen to some Bing Crosby records.

Neiman Marcus chief Burt Tansky had some choice words for retail reporters last night, saying they had unfairly influenced the outcome of the 2008 holiday shopping season well before it even started. He was referring to stories that came out as early as September, like this one, predicting that holiday sales could be the worst in up to two decades because of the bad economy.

“I think the media have done us a terrible disservice,” Tansky said at an evening event sponsored by Financo Inc during the annual National Retail Federation conference in New York, attended by our own Karen Jacobs. “The media, I think, should start thinking about the impact they are having on retail.”
    
Many of these media stories were based on predictions from leading research groups, such as Deloitte, who gave gloomy forecasts due to the global financial crisis, the U.S. housing slump and credit crunch. 
    
And when retail chains finally began to take down the tinsel after the holidays, their performance proved even worse than that, with sales dropping for the first time in the nearly 40 years they have been tracked.
    
We didn’t know it last night, but Tansky may have had other reasons to be piqued than our role in bringing the bad news. Neiman today said it would start making interest payments on some of its senior notes by issuing more debt, rather than using cash, and planned to fire 3 percent of its workforce.
    
The news comes barely a week after Neiman posted a 31.2 percent drop in same-store sales at its unit that is home to the Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores.

(Photo of a Neiman Marcus gift book from a Christmas past: Reuters)