Check out the latest retail forecast.

The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to fall for the second consecutive year, but this year’s drop should not be as steep as it was last year.

The retail industry trade group expects retail sales in November and December combined to slip 1 percent to $437.6 billion.  Last year, such sales fell 3.4 percent to $441.97 billion.

Last month, the International Council of Shopping Centers took a more bullish tone.  That group said U.S. holiday season sales should rise about 1 percent to 2 percent.

Taking a look back, analysts expect to see that September sales at stores open at least a year fell 1 percent, on average, at the 30 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters.  Meanwhile, U.S. chain store sales fell 1.9 percent last week, according to data from Redbook Research.

We’ll find out about September sales later this week, but even Santa will have to wait a few more months to see if either trade group was right about holiday spending.

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(Reuters photo)

Hey Brian Dunn, CEO of gadget lover's cathedral top electronics retailer Best Buy, what's on your short list of five great bang-for-your-buck devices for this holiday season?
(Thanks to the CNN Money reporter for asking this question at a press conference today)

DUNN: My short list?

* (First), on my personal short list -- a netbook is definitely on my short list - and by the way it's a companion device. It's lightweight, it's small, it's great to take on a quick trip.
* (Second) I think the HD Instinct is a very interesting smartphone. [Mediafile: That's Samsung's Instinct HD]
* (Third) I love my Flip HD camcorder. That's a great piece.
* Four, I really love the Ultra Thin OLED TVs are cool. [Mediafile: Um, cool yes. Bang for Buck? At about $2,000 for an 11-inch screen, let's just leave it at cool and move on. mkay?]
* The fifth one, of course, is a gift card , that I can give to the people I love, so they can get whatever it is they want.

Well played, Brian. Well Played.

Check out toy prices falling north of the border.

Walmart Canada said it is dropping the price of some popular toys to $10 (Canadian dollars that is) — a price cut of up to 67 percent in some cases – and new toys will be reduced to $10 every week between now and Christmas.

For instance, it said Transformers Universe, which is regularly priced at $29.92, is being cut to $10, as is Mega Bloks’ Builder Racer that usually sells for $24.96.

The move echoes price cuts announced by Walmart U.S. on Oct. 1 last year, when it slashed prices on popular toys — like Barbie dolls and Tonka trunks — to $10 each.

“We are starting our Christmas toy price cuts earlier than ever, across more toys than ever before,” said Jim Thompson, Walmart Canada’s senior-vice president of merchandise and operations.

He cited research that was conducted for the retailer showing many Canadians plan to buy items on sale to help them stay on budget this holiday shopping season, and many will spread the expense of their holiday shopping over a longer period of time to avoid large post-Christmas bills.

It can now only be a matter of time before Walmart U.S. rolls out its holiday toy plans.

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(Photo: Reuters)

Check out some shoppers saving for holiday gifts.

Yes, it is still summer, but a comparison shopping Web site decided to find out how recession-weary shoppers feel about spending for the upcoming winter holidays.
 
Just over 75 percent of respondents to PriceGrabber.com’s recent survey said they are more concerned about the cost of holiday gift-giving this year.  So, how many are starting to save earlier?  Only 41.1 percent.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the survey from PriceGrabber.com:
 
Compared to the 2008 holiday season, are you more concerned about the cost of holiday gift-giving this year because of the recession?
 
35.2% Yes, I am highly concerned
40.1% Yes, I am moderately concerned
24.7% No, I am not at all concerned
 
Are you planning to start saving money for holiday gift-giving earlier than last year because of the recession?

41.1% Yes, I am planning to start saving money earlier than last year
20.9% No, I am planning to start saving money at the same time as last year
2.2% No, I am planning to start saving money later than last year
35.8% No, I do not save money for holiday gift-giving
 
When do you expect to start saving money for holiday gift-giving for the 2009 holiday season?
 
17.4% July
15.2% August
15.3% September
9.7% October
5.7% November
0.9% December

And, the group with the largest number of responses to that question — 35.8% — said they do not save money for holiday gift-giving.
 
The survey of 1,777 online consumers was conducted July 20 to Aug. 10.

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(Reuters photo)

Santa’s not getting any rest this year.

After U.S. retailers posted the longest running decline in same-store sales in nearly a decade, Sears, Kmart and Toys R Us announced Christmas-themed sales for the month of July.  While actual sale dates and locations vary among the three chains, the event has drawn a lot of attention from news media, which had the once-in-a-year joy of headlining a story with “Christmas in July.”

Not to be outdone, Disney has sent a train to 36 states around the country to promote its new animated film “A Christmas Carol,” slated for release this November.  Yes, November.

The re-purposed Amtrak train is filled to the brim with Disney Christmas items, the latest in cinematic 3D audio and video equipment, a lot of HP computers, and even artifacts on loan from the Charles Dickens Museum.  Oh, and it has a picture of Ebeneezer Scrooge on the front.

Whether any of these campaigns will work is anyone’s guess.  But for now, at least, it gives us all a chance to laugh and play and maybe even listen to some Bing Crosby records.

Neiman Marcus chief Burt Tansky had some choice words for retail reporters last night, saying they had unfairly influenced the outcome of the 2008 holiday shopping season well before it even started. He was referring to stories that came out as early as September, like this one, predicting that holiday sales could be the worst in up to two decades because of the bad economy.

“I think the media have done us a terrible disservice,” Tansky said at an evening event sponsored by Financo Inc during the annual National Retail Federation conference in New York, attended by our own Karen Jacobs. “The media, I think, should start thinking about the impact they are having on retail.”
    
Many of these media stories were based on predictions from leading research groups, such as Deloitte, who gave gloomy forecasts due to the global financial crisis, the U.S. housing slump and credit crunch. 
    
And when retail chains finally began to take down the tinsel after the holidays, their performance proved even worse than that, with sales dropping for the first time in the nearly 40 years they have been tracked.
    
We didn’t know it last night, but Tansky may have had other reasons to be piqued than our role in bringing the bad news. Neiman today said it would start making interest payments on some of its senior notes by issuing more debt, rather than using cash, and planned to fire 3 percent of its workforce.
    
The news comes barely a week after Neiman posted a 31.2 percent drop in same-store sales at its unit that is home to the Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores.

(Photo of a Neiman Marcus gift book from a Christmas past: Reuters)

Check Out low shopper turnout just before Christmas.

Only 38.7 percent of consumers in a survey were out for some last-minute holiday shopping in the weekend before Christmas — the smallest number in six years, according to the survey conducted by America’s Research Group and UBS.

Traffic was especially weak in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest, which were slammed by winter storms over the weekend. That kept scores of people at home, but those who did venture out seemed to opt for stores that had deep discounts going on.  Wal-Mart Stores, the world’s largest retailer, attracted over two-thirds of consumers, the survey found.

Other results from the survey include:

* 68.5 percent of shoppers are 90 percent or more done with shopping this year, the highest level since 2002.

* A greater number of parents, at 74.8 percent, are finished buying children’s gifts. That’s the highest level since 2003.

*Gift cards as a category are down to 51.5 percent, the lowest level since 2005. Only 11.8 percent of parents said that they bought gift cards for their children this Christmas as there was no “must have” gift. In 2007, that number was 26.3 percent.

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(Photo/Reuters)

Check out how consumers feel about shopping at malls.

Auto dealers and reporters are popular targets for hate mail. But mall operators may have reason to fear joining them if a new study conducted by the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School and the Verde Group, a market research consultancy, is to be believed.

Almost eight of every 10 people surveyed faced a problem at the mall, citing such issues as a limited choice of places to eat, lack of variety of stores, parking difficulties and a shortage of restrooms.

But keeping shoppers happy will be critical this holiday shopping season.

U.S. consumers, who spend an average of $150 per mall visit according to the study, have curtailed shopping due to the recession, the weak U.S. housing market and high food costs, raising concerns about holiday sales. More and more people are scared about their jobs — another factor in the spending slowdown.

“These findings should be a call to action for mall developers who are failing to quench this thirst for excitement,” said Wharton Professor Stephen Hoch in a statement. “Malls can’t be mundane in this economic climate.”

Mall operators, already struggling to lure shoppers, are facing a dwindling pool of retail tenants, as many bankrupt stores like Steve & Barry’s have begun to shut their doors.

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(Photo/Reuters)

The beaten-down appliance sector got a shot in the arm on Black Friday as many consumers bought new washers for their laundry rooms, one spot survey shows.

Appliance sales, especially of washing machines and dryers, were up significantly over Thanksgiving weekend as shoppers responded to discounts, said David MacGregor, an analyst with Longbow Research.

More consumers are also buying extended warranties for these big-ticket items, he added.

MacGregor, who conducts regular surveys of appliance sellers, said 87 percent of retailer contacts indicated sales met or exceeded expectations, in some cases doubling forecasts for the weekend.

Sears, the biggest U.S. appliance retailer, benefited strongly as promotions and doorbuster offers drove Black Friday traffic. The retailer’s Black Friday deals included a Kenmore washer-dryer pair priced at $599 that normally sells for $1,199, a spokesman told Reuters.

“Based on our estimates of costs, we believe that Sears probably sold most of these heavily discounted items at or below cost and then tried to recover some margin through sales of extended warranties,” MacGregor said in a research note.

The continuing U.S. housing slump and tighter credit has hurt appliance demand. U.S. shipments of major appliances were down about 9 percent for the year to date through late October, according to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers.

The analyst said he expects the Black Friday strength to aid Whirlpool, whose brands hold leading market share positions in most categories. Whirlpool’s shares, which have fallen 50 percent this year, were up 8 percent on Thursday.

Photo: Whirlpool

Retailers say it can be difficult to measure their monthly sales results accurately on a year-over-year basis because of calendar shifts — sometimes a holiday falls in one month, boosting results, while the next year the holiday shifts into a different month, hurting results.

The most drastic case of this is usually seen in March and April, when the timing of the Easter holiday can help March sales and hurt April, or vice versa.

As monthly sales results came in today, numerous retailers, including Target, Saks, and Pacific Sunwear, said the timing of Thanksgiving (Nov 27 this year vs. Nov 22 last year) hurt their November results. The later Thanksgiving meant fewer busy post-Thanksgiving holiday shopping days in this year’s November period, they said, making sales figures look especially weak.

For instance, Target’s same-store sales fell more than 10 percent. It had warned that the calendar shift eliminated 7 holiday shopping days from November and pushed them into December, which would drag down November’s results. Saks and Pacific Sunwear also reported lower November same-store sales.

But the Thanksgiving shift was apparently not a big deal for industry leader Wal-Mart. While most retailers reported a drop in November same-store sales, Wal-Mart posted a stronger-than-expected 3.4 percent rise.

And in contrast to many others, Wal-Mart’s November monthly reporting period ended on Nov. 28 — Black Friday. That meant the discount behemoth had just one post-Thanksgiving day in November compared with most retailers whose November reporting periods ended on Nov 29 — giving them two supposedly busy post-Thanksgiving shopping days in the month.

Looks like low prices on food and toiletries are one way to trump a shifting calendar.

(Photo: Reuters/Nicole Maestri taken in a Wal-Mart store in Secaucus, NJ the week of Thanksgiving)