Today’s a serious shopping day for serious shoppers.

Black Friday is no longer a sport for the leisurely shopper. From our late-night rounds, it became clear that people were lining up all over in the dead of night (and some earlier than that!) not just for the fun of it but out of necessity.

While many of the stoutest shoppers were grimly determined to get their deals and get out, there was some fun and holiday cheer.

At a Best Buy in Springfield, Pennsylvania at midnight, the 50 people in line created an atmosphere part football tailgate and part Department of Motor Vehicle tension. A card table was set up near the end of the line, but the reception on that end was quite frosty, possibly “enhanced” by the consumption of cheap beer.

But for the most part, the deals were the thing.

Take Nate Bryan of Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, who arrived at 2:30 am EST this year to get a laptop for his daughter.

“It’s normally $1,000 and now cut in half. That $500 can go to other things,” he said.

Laptops and big ticket items are favorites of this day, but they are not the only items.

Debbie Techac, who works as a cashier at a supermarket, had waited for more than 12 hours outside a Best Buy in central Phoenix to buy a heavily discounted Dyson vacuum cleaner reduced to $329 from $549, two laptops — one of them a Sony — and some DVDs. She expected to buy the laptops for $200-$300.

While many shoppers are looking to scale back spending, some of our early risers had other plans.

Techac said she was spending about the same as last year, and felt fairly optimistic both about her own job security, and the outlook for the wider economy.

“I have job security. I work at Fry’s. It’s a grocery store, everybody has to eat … I think (the economy) is going to get better, I hope.”

Lou McAnany, a college student in Phoenix, was playing Monopoly on the sidewalk with his girlfriend to pass the time waiting for Best Buy to open. “I’m playing with fake money, wishing it were real,” he said with a chuckle.

McAnany was lining up to buy a 40-inch LCD television, although he was not yet sure what brand or model, paying around $300, with savings of around $400, as well as an iPod and a Nintendo Wii.

“I’m happy with the discounts, I wouldn’t be standing out all night if I weren’t. It seems like they are better than last year.”

So, with all this buying, everyone will get something, right?

Well…

“Anybody old enough to get a job,” is being cut off this year’s Christmas list said Ayanna Brown, a 34-year-old Brooklyn resident who worked as a bookkeeper at a legal firm but lost her job last year, is now back in school and will graduate in June.

“Around Christmas you have to splurge on the kids, so the grown-ups understand.”

How has your Black Friday been? Any fantastic deals you want to share? What’s Number One on your wish list?

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* What wine goes with pumpkin pie?

* No Thanksgiving rest for retailers in sales race

(Additional reporting by Phil Wahba, Tom Hals and Tim Gaynor)

(Reuters photos)

Check out consumers stepping up their online bargain hunting ahead of the holiday shopping rush.

According to Hitwise, searches for retailer promo codes rose 19 percent last week compared with 2008.

Those numbers should rise headed into “Cyber Monday” - the Monday after Thanksgiving when retailers shift from in-store to online promotions.

Last year, Hitwise said searches on a portfolio of search terms for specific retailers (i.e. ‘target coupons’, ‘target coupon codes’ and ‘target free shipping code’) peaked during the week of Cyber Monday, up 76 percent from 2007.

So who is doing this searching? Hitwise looked at the demographics of online bargain hunters in the 8 weeks ending Dec. 27, 2008. It found the split is even for male and female searchers. Just over half of the searchers were between the ages of 25 to 44, and Hitwise said the younger searchers, aged 25 to 34, were more likely to search for retailer coupons than the rest of the online population.

It also found the greatest share of searches are from those making between $30,000-$60,000 and $60,000-$100,000.

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Nordstrom profit below Street view, shares fall

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out Macy’s disappointing fourth-quarter forecast.

Apparently, the Thanksgiving Day Parade may be the highlight of the quarter.

The department store chain operator forecast fourth-quarter profit below analysts estimates and its shares fell Wednesday morning.

The retailer also expects same-store sales to drop 1 percent to 2 percent in the quarter.  While that is less of a decline than the full year, it is also off a pretty easy comparison.  Same-store sales fell 7 percent in the year-earlier fourth quarter, when the country was waist deep in a recession and credit crunch.

Macy’s, which grew through acquisitions into a national brand, has shifted its focus to offering local items in specific markets in order to try to boost sales.

So far, that might have staunched the bleeding.  But most department stores are still out of favor as consumers stay at shops like Wal-Mart in order to save money.

But hey, Wal-Mart doesn’t have the cool balloons in Manhattan in November, does it?

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Flowers Foods Q3 sales miss estimates, cuts FY view

Best Buy’s international CEO to retire

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(Reuters photo)

As we mentioned on Shop Talk this morning, the National Retail Federation expects total holiday sales this year to fall 1 percent.

The trade group held a conference call later in the day to add details about their forecast. Here is what NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis said about the forces that will shape the upcoming holiday shopping season:

Unemployment:

“The golden ticket this year for the holiday season is going to be unemployment. With the unemployment rate at about 10 percent, we know that a lot of Americans will be pulling back on the holiday season because they have to, because they don’t have a job or because someone in their family doesn’t have a job.

“But the unemployment picture really goes far beyond that 10 percent because anyone who knows someone who is out of a job, looking for work or is concerned about losing their job is going to be pulling back. You don’t want to be the guy who drives up in a brand new BMW if your neighbor just got laid off.”

Retailers’ efforts to prepare for this year’s impending holiday season:

“This year, retailers knew going in consumers would be very price conscious and frugal for the holiday season and they’ve been able to plan accordingly.

“They’re doing everything they can to cut back on their operating costs. They’re pulling back on inventory. As we have seen from NRF’s port tracker report, retail containers to the nations’ ports are down to the levels we saw in 2002 and 2003, which is an indicator that retailers really aren’t shipping as much to their stores as they may have been in previous years.

… That will help retailers protect their profits and will keep them from, we think, having to resort to any panicked, unplanned markdowns at the last minute because they have too much merchandise.”

What shoppers can expect to see in stores:

“For the holidays specifically, we are expecting retailers to focus on a lot of lower-ticket items. This will be the holiday season of the blue jean instead of the Blu-ray.

… Absent, we think except perhaps for Black Friday, will be a lot of promotions of flat screen TVs and laptops. So, really more of a focus on the basics, the necessities and the lower-priced items this holiday season.”

“We are expecting a lot of aggressive discounts and promotions. The good news … is that retailers should be able to protect their profit margins this year because they have been planning these sales and promotions throughout the holiday season. Because they have done a nice job controlling their inventory, retailers really won’t have as many issues with unplanned markdowns as they may have a year ago, but consumers may start to find that retailers are coming out with many aggressive promotions and deals very quickly.”

(Photo: Reuters)

Last holiday season, Kmart touted its layaway program as a way to help cash-strapped shoppers afford their holiday purchases (and ultimately help boost its own sales).

This year, with consumers still reluctant to spend and estimates emerging that overall holiday sales may not rise from last year’s depressed levels, Kmart is extending the program and will launch online layaway on Oct. 9.

Shoppers can browse items on its website, place those items on layaway and then pick up the item at a local Kmart store.

In addition, shoppers who start layaway contracts in stores, can make their layaway payments online — or online layaway users can make their payments at the Kmart store where their layaway order is being held.

Kmart says it is launching the online program after seeing a double-digit increase in layaway customers and sales in 2008.

But don’t fret if you’re more of a Sears shopper than a Kmart shopper (the two retailers fall under the umbrella of Sears Holding Corp, which is controlled by hedge fund manager Edward Lampert).

Sears is also offering online layaway.

(Photo: Reuters)

As retailers gear up for the all-important holiday season, two industry veterans predicted what would be hot in toy land this year.

Looking at the ‘hot toys” list from Jim Silver and Christopher Byrne of toy Web site TimetoPlayMag.com, it appears that even indulgent parents still don’t want to pay too much for a toy — with the exception of the Beatles Rock Band video game.

That could put pressure on toy makers and retailers who have been cutting down on inventory and focusing on making and selling affordable toys to please consumers.

The push may be vital, given the 2008 holiday season turned into one of the worst in nearly 40 years as the economic crisis bore down on shoppers.

The complete “hot toys” list includes:

Mattel’s Barbie Fashionistas dolls, Rocky the Robot truck, and the tween Dora, Crayola’s Crayon Town, Hasbro’s Candy Land Sweet Celebration game, a Nerf blaster gun and Transformers Constructicon Devastator battle vehicle, Cepia’s Zhu Zhu Pets hamsters, Bakugan 7-in-1 Maxus Helios playing cards and characters, MEGA brands’ Battle Strikers, Techno Source’s Printies, Spin Master’s Air Hogs Switchblade flyer, Jakks Pacific Eyeclops Night Vision Goggles and Girl Gourmet Sweet Candy Jewelry Factory, Lego’s Star Wars and the Beatles Rock Band video game.

(Photo/Reuters)

It’s that time of the year again.

Specialty toy retailer Toys “R” Us issued its take on what this holiday season’s hot toys will be, as it prepares to attract toy shoppers one year after what was the worst holiday sales season in nearly 40 years.

This year, retailers and toy makers alike have focused keenly on prices, understanding that consumers may not be prepared to shell out hundreds of dollars for toys since caution rules their spending.

The Toys “R” Us list this year includes a mind-control game by Mattel called Mindflex, Disney’s netbook Netpaland Hasbro’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Constructicon Devastator action figures.

But who knows what parents will choose this year as prices remain on top of their minds.

Here’s Toys “R” Us’ “Fabulous 15″ in the group of 36 hot toys:

Bakugan Battle Brawlers New Vestroia Maxus Helios 7 in 1 from Spin Master
ChixOs Pink Design-A-Luxury Loft from Spin Master
Color Me a Song from Crayola Beginnings
Disney Netpal
Disney•Pixar Toy Story Interactive Buddies Talking Action Figures (Buzz and Woody) from Thinkway
Disney Princess: Just One Kiss Princess Tiana Doll from Mattel
Fast Lane JLX Over Drive Radio Control All Terrain Vehicle from Toys”R”Us
Laugh & Learn Learning Farm from Fisher-Price
Little Mommy Baby Ah-Choo from Fisher-Price
Mindflex from Mattel
NERF N-Strike Raider Rapid Fire CS-35 from Hasbro
Star Wars Fan’s Choice Anniversary Edition Home One Mon Calamari Star Cruiser from LEGO
Transformers;revenge of the Fallen Constructicon Devastator from Hasbro
Wii Sports Resort from Nintendo
Zhu Zhu Pets Hamster from Cepia

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out a rather glum outlook for the Christmas shopping season.

Last year, holiday sales notched their worst performance in nearly four decades.

This year, they could be a “train wreck” says Britt Beemer, founder and CEO of America’s Research Group.

According to the latest Consumer Mind Reader survey released by America’s Research Group and UBS, 81 percent of respondents said they are pressured by family debts, forcing many to shop less and spend less. 

 “The data foretells a very scary Christmas shopping season with consumers radically cutting back at a time when retailers need shoppers to shore up sagging retail sales,” Beemer said. 

“I am fearful Christmas will be a retail train-wreck this year.”

Earlier this week, Beemer told Reuters that U.S. consumers are still cautious about eating at restaurants and are not planning to loosen the purse strings for holiday spending this year despite signs the economy is improving.

“Everybody wants the recession to be over, but nobody has told the consumer,” Beemer told Reuters.

According to the survey released on Thursday, more than three quarters of families are trying to cut back on how much they are spending.  The average amount that American consumers are cutting out of their monthly spending is $191.11, the highest figure ever recorded for spending cuts in 13 years of ARG Consumer Mind Reader surveys.

Of consumers cutting back, 60.1 percent said they have accepted this new, lower spending level — even when the economic situation improves and they could afford to spend more. 

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Fashion Houses Forced to Test Radical Ideas (WSJ)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check Out unemployment’s strain on consumers’ wallets.

This is not what retailers want to hear on the day before Christmas, but evidence continues to mount that consumers are cutting back spending.

The U.S. Commerce Department said consumer spending contracted 0.6 percent in November, the fifth-straight monthly fall. Incomes shrank 0.2 percent. A separate report showed initial claims for jobless benefits last week reached the highest level in 26 years.

Today, retailers are making a final push to lure last-minute gift hunters but surveys indicate the steep discounts are not inspiring consumers to spend. This year’s U.S. holiday shopping season could be the worst in up to 40 years.

Are you spending more or less this holiday season? Let us know.

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‘Heritage cocktails’ make a comeback

Cadbury sells drinks unit

More U.S. store closings to come

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the winter wonderland.
 
As in, “I wonder if people are going to fight through the snow, sleet and rain this weekend to come to my store?”
 
A major storm headed for the Northeast could make things dicey for retailers on the last Saturday before Christmas, typically one of the biggest two shopping days of the year.
 
Retailers are hoping for a strong weekend to help lift what many analysts expect to be the worst holiday shopping season in about two decades.
 
But having just walked to work in Chicago, I can tell you that, depending on how this wintry mess hits the Northeast, consumers might have second thoughts about leaving their homes for the mall.
 
Planalytics, which measures the effect of weather on retailers, says the Northeast, lower Midwest and Great Lakes regions could see snow, sleet or freezing rain. On the West Coast, recent rainy conditions could continue to disrupt holiday traffic.
 
Along with steep discounts and extended hours, maybe retailer’s could offer door-to-door transportation.
 
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Retailers may not rebound until 2010: analysts
 
Peltz’s Trian reports 7.18 pct stake in Dr Pepper
 
Beauty joins holiday’s discount mania (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)