Shop Talk

“Was there something wrong with this item?”

You’ve been there before. The sales lady in the store skeptically fingers your return item, then gives you a withering look.

“Was there anything wrong with this item????” she asks dubiously, as you flounder to prove your innocence.

Return fraud is expected to cost retailers a whopping $3.68 billion this holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s a 34 percent jump over last year, spurring 11 percent of retailers to tighten their policies.

Bringing stolen merchandise to stores to demand a credit is the most common form of return fraud, according to the survey. Also high on the list is “wardrobing” — wearing a special occasion item, for example, and then returning it the day after the party.

Some 89 percent of retailers say they’ve experienced return fraud committed by employees, no less.

To protect themselves, more than two-thirds of retailers are now requiring that people who return items without a receipt show identification, as nearly 13 percent of such returns are fraudulent.

Overall, return fraud is expected to add up to $13.95 billion in 2010, up from $9.59 billion in 2009.

Check Out Line: Gimme, gimme, gimme cash!!

Check out what kids want for Christmas.

Okay, if you are reading this item on Dec. 24 and seriously looking for an idea of what to buy a kid for Christmas, your choices are likely somewhere between “The Perry Como Holiday CD Box Set” and a “Really, Stop-Tickling-Me-It-Isn’t-Funny-Anymore-Elmo.”

But no worries.  Kids between ages 6 and 18 are liking cash and gift cards even more this year, according to a new survey.

The percentage of boys who said they prefer to receive a gift card or cash for the holidays rose to 12.3 percent this year from 7.9 percent in 2008, according to a survey by the YouthBeat division of Chicago based C&R Research.

Girls are even more accepting of cash or plastic, with 22.5 percent saying they want money or gift cards this year, up from 19 percent a year earlier.

In the online survey of more than 1,200 kids, almost 80 percent said they had received a gift card, up nearly 10 percent from 2008.

And guess what? You have have a better chance of making a kid happy with a gift card than by trying to guess what they want for a present. (You don’t REALLY think they want socks, do you?) Kids prefer a gift card by a two-to-one margin over a gift picked for them, the survey said.

Target pops up, but this time with a focus on price

Target is a big fan of the pop up store, setting up miniature versions of itself for a few days so shoppers can buy its wares, often in cities where it does not have a large presence.

A year ago, right before the financial storm hit Wall Street in September, it set up “Bullseye Bodegas” in Manhattan, where it showcased exclusive merchandise by 22 designers.

This year for the holidays, Target will open 3 Target To-Go stores Dec 11-13 in New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.  They will offer 50 “wallet-friendly gifts” like toys, home decor, beauty and fashion. Target’s fashions from Rodarte will also be sold in the pop up stores a week before the collection hits its stores nationwide on Dec. 20.

“This holiday, we wanted to give our urban markets a little slice of Target,” said Shawn Gensch, vice president of marketing. ”Target To-Go gives time-starved city dwellers a joyful, convenient and affordable holiday shopping experience.”

With budget-conscious shoppers appearing to be the only ones who exist this holiday season (resulting in retailers seeing a weak start to the holiday shopping rush), touting “wallet-friendly” gifts over unique merchandise by 22 designers might be a better way to win sales this Christmas.

(Photo: Reuters)

Check Out Line: If Hot Topic is any indication, November won’t be so hot

Check out the disappointing November sales results coming in early Wednesday morning.

Teen clothing retailer Hot Topic posted an 11.7 percent drop in November sales at stores open at least a year — worse than its own estimate of a decline of 8 percent to 11 percent.

Analysts, on average, were expecting a drop of 7.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

In November, which represents the start of the crucial selling season, same-store sales at its namesake stores fell 14.5 percent.

On a recorded call, Hot Topic blamed a low-teen percentage drop in the number of transactions and a low single-digit decline in the average transaction value. So not only did fewer shoppers come into its stores in November, they spent less while they were there.

Meanwhile, Walgreen said its November same-store sales rose 3.9 percent in November.  Analysts were looking for a stronger 6.1 percent increase.

The drugstore chain said pharmacy same-store sales rose 5.7 percent, while analysts expected a 7.2 percent jump. Same-store sales at the front end of the store, where Walgreen sells general merchandise, rose 0.8 percent – much less than the 3.8 percent increase Wall Street expected.

Check Out Line: A Black Friday extravaganza!

Today’s a serious shopping day for serious shoppers.

Black Friday is no longer a sport for the leisurely shopper. From our late-night rounds, it became clear that people were lining up all over in the dead of night (and some earlier than that!) not just for the fun of it but out of necessity.

While many of the stoutest shoppers were grimly determined to get their deals and get out, there was some fun and holiday cheer.

At a Best Buy in Springfield, Pennsylvania at midnight, the 50 people in line created an atmosphere part football tailgate and part Department of Motor Vehicle tension. A card table was set up near the end of the line, but the reception on that end was quite frosty, possibly “enhanced” by the consumption of cheap beer.

But for the most part, the deals were the thing.

Take Nate Bryan of Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, who arrived at 2:30 am EST this year to get a laptop for his daughter.

“It’s normally $1,000 and now cut in half. That $500 can go to other things,” he said.

Check Out Line: Bargain hunters trolling the web

Check out consumers stepping up their online bargain hunting ahead of the holiday shopping rush.

According to Hitwise, searches for retailer promo codes rose 19 percent last week compared with 2008.

Those numbers should rise headed into “Cyber Monday” – the Monday after Thanksgiving when retailers shift from in-store to online promotions.

Last year, Hitwise said searches on a portfolio of search terms for specific retailers (i.e. ‘target coupons’, ‘target coupon codes’ and ‘target free shipping code’) peaked during the week of Cyber Monday, up 76 percent from 2007.

So who is doing this searching? Hitwise looked at the demographics of online bargain hunters in the 8 weeks ending Dec. 27, 2008. It found the split is even for male and female searchers. Just over half of the searchers were between the ages of 25 to 44, and Hitwise said the younger searchers, aged 25 to 34, were more likely to search for retailer coupons than the rest of the online population.

It also found the greatest share of searches are from those making between $30,000-$60,000 and $60,000-$100,000.

Also in the basket:

Check Out Line: Macy’s starts retail earnings parade

Check out Macy’s disappointing fourth-quarter forecast.

Apparently, the Thanksgiving Day Parade may be the highlight of the quarter.

The department store chain operator forecast fourth-quarter profit below analysts estimates and its shares fell Wednesday morning.

The retailer also expects same-store sales to drop 1 percent to 2 percent in the quarter.  While that is less of a decline than the full year, it is also off a pretty easy comparison.  Same-store sales fell 7 percent in the year-earlier fourth quarter, when the country was waist deep in a recession and credit crunch.

Macy’s, which grew through acquisitions into a national brand, has shifted its focus to offering local items in specific markets in order to try to boost sales.

So far, that might have staunched the bleeding.  But most department stores are still out of favor as consumers stay at shops like Wal-Mart in order to save money.

But hey, Wal-Mart doesn’t have the cool balloons in Manhattan in November, does it?

This year, a Christmas of blue jeans, not Blu-rays

As we mentioned on Shop Talk this morning, the National Retail Federation expects total holiday sales this year to fall 1 percent.

The trade group held a conference call later in the day to add details about their forecast. Here is what NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis said about the forces that will shape the upcoming holiday shopping season:

Unemployment:

“The golden ticket this year for the holiday season is going to be unemployment. With the unemployment rate at about 10 percent, we know that a lot of Americans will be pulling back on the holiday season because they have to, because they don’t have a job or because someone in their family doesn’t have a job.

“But the unemployment picture really goes far beyond that 10 percent because anyone who knows someone who is out of a job, looking for work or is concerned about losing their job is going to be pulling back. You don’t want to be the guy who drives up in a brand new BMW if your neighbor just got laid off.”

Retailers’ efforts to prepare for this year’s impending holiday season:

“This year, retailers knew going in consumers would be very price conscious and frugal for the holiday season and they’ve been able to plan accordingly.

Layaway goes virtual at Kmart

Last holiday season, Kmart touted its layaway program as a way to help cash-strapped shoppers afford their holiday purchases (and ultimately help boost its own sales).

This year, with consumers still reluctant to spend and estimates emerging that overall holiday sales may not rise from last year’s depressed levels, Kmart is extending the program and will launch online layaway on Oct. 9.

Shoppers can browse items on its website, place those items on layaway and then pick up the item at a local Kmart store.

In addition, shoppers who start layaway contracts in stores, can make their layaway payments online — or online layaway users can make their payments at the Kmart store where their layaway order is being held.

Kmart says it is launching the online program after seeing a double-digit increase in layaway customers and sales in 2008.

But don’t fret if you’re more of a Sears shopper than a Kmart shopper (the two retailers fall under the umbrella of Sears Holding Corp, which is controlled by hedge fund manager Edward Lampert).

Sears is also offering online layaway.

What’s hot in toyland this holiday season

As retailers gear up for the all-important holiday season, two industry veterans predicted what would be hot in toy land this year.Looking at the ‘hot toys” list from Jim Silver and Christopher Byrne of toy Web site TimetoPlayMag.com, it appears that even indulgent parents still don’t want to pay too much for a toy — with the exception of the Beatles Rock Band video game.That could put pressure on toy makers and retailers who have been cutting down on inventory and focusing on making and selling affordable toys to please consumers.The push may be vital, given the 2008 holiday season turned into one of the worst in nearly 40 years as the economic crisis bore down on shoppers.The complete “hot toys” list includes:Mattel’s Barbie Fashionistas dolls, Rocky the Robot truck, and the tween Dora, Crayola’s Crayon Town, Hasbro’s Candy Land Sweet Celebration game, a Nerf blaster gun and Transformers Constructicon Devastator battle vehicle, Cepia’s Zhu Zhu Pets hamsters, Bakugan 7-in-1 Maxus Helios playing cards and characters, MEGA brands’ Battle Strikers, Techno Source’s Printies, Spin Master’s Air Hogs Switchblade flyer, Jakks Pacific Eyeclops Night Vision Goggles and Girl Gourmet Sweet Candy Jewelry Factory, Lego’s Star Wars and the Beatles Rock Band video game.(Photo/Reuters)