As we mentioned on Shop Talk this morning, the National Retail Federation expects total holiday sales this year to fall 1 percent.

The trade group held a conference call later in the day to add details about their forecast. Here is what NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis said about the forces that will shape the upcoming holiday shopping season:

Unemployment:

“The golden ticket this year for the holiday season is going to be unemployment. With the unemployment rate at about 10 percent, we know that a lot of Americans will be pulling back on the holiday season because they have to, because they don’t have a job or because someone in their family doesn’t have a job.

“But the unemployment picture really goes far beyond that 10 percent because anyone who knows someone who is out of a job, looking for work or is concerned about losing their job is going to be pulling back. You don’t want to be the guy who drives up in a brand new BMW if your neighbor just got laid off.”

Retailers’ efforts to prepare for this year’s impending holiday season:

“This year, retailers knew going in consumers would be very price conscious and frugal for the holiday season and they’ve been able to plan accordingly.

“They’re doing everything they can to cut back on their operating costs. They’re pulling back on inventory. As we have seen from NRF’s port tracker report, retail containers to the nations’ ports are down to the levels we saw in 2002 and 2003, which is an indicator that retailers really aren’t shipping as much to their stores as they may have been in previous years.

… That will help retailers protect their profits and will keep them from, we think, having to resort to any panicked, unplanned markdowns at the last minute because they have too much merchandise.”

What shoppers can expect to see in stores:

“For the holidays specifically, we are expecting retailers to focus on a lot of lower-ticket items. This will be the holiday season of the blue jean instead of the Blu-ray.

… Absent, we think except perhaps for Black Friday, will be a lot of promotions of flat screen TVs and laptops. So, really more of a focus on the basics, the necessities and the lower-priced items this holiday season.”

“We are expecting a lot of aggressive discounts and promotions. The good news … is that retailers should be able to protect their profit margins this year because they have been planning these sales and promotions throughout the holiday season. Because they have done a nice job controlling their inventory, retailers really won’t have as many issues with unplanned markdowns as they may have a year ago, but consumers may start to find that retailers are coming out with many aggressive promotions and deals very quickly.”

(Photo: Reuters)

Last holiday season, Kmart touted its layaway program as a way to help cash-strapped shoppers afford their holiday purchases (and ultimately help boost its own sales).

This year, with consumers still reluctant to spend and estimates emerging that overall holiday sales may not rise from last year’s depressed levels, Kmart is extending the program and will launch online layaway on Oct. 9.

Shoppers can browse items on its website, place those items on layaway and then pick up the item at a local Kmart store.

In addition, shoppers who start layaway contracts in stores, can make their layaway payments online — or online layaway users can make their payments at the Kmart store where their layaway order is being held.

Kmart says it is launching the online program after seeing a double-digit increase in layaway customers and sales in 2008.

But don’t fret if you’re more of a Sears shopper than a Kmart shopper (the two retailers fall under the umbrella of Sears Holding Corp, which is controlled by hedge fund manager Edward Lampert).

Sears is also offering online layaway.

(Photo: Reuters)

As retailers gear up for the all-important holiday season, two industry veterans predicted what would be hot in toy land this year.

Looking at the ‘hot toys” list from Jim Silver and Christopher Byrne of toy Web site TimetoPlayMag.com, it appears that even indulgent parents still don’t want to pay too much for a toy — with the exception of the Beatles Rock Band video game.

That could put pressure on toy makers and retailers who have been cutting down on inventory and focusing on making and selling affordable toys to please consumers.

The push may be vital, given the 2008 holiday season turned into one of the worst in nearly 40 years as the economic crisis bore down on shoppers.

The complete “hot toys” list includes:

Mattel’s Barbie Fashionistas dolls, Rocky the Robot truck, and the tween Dora, Crayola’s Crayon Town, Hasbro’s Candy Land Sweet Celebration game, a Nerf blaster gun and Transformers Constructicon Devastator battle vehicle, Cepia’s Zhu Zhu Pets hamsters, Bakugan 7-in-1 Maxus Helios playing cards and characters, MEGA brands’ Battle Strikers, Techno Source’s Printies, Spin Master’s Air Hogs Switchblade flyer, Jakks Pacific Eyeclops Night Vision Goggles and Girl Gourmet Sweet Candy Jewelry Factory, Lego’s Star Wars and the Beatles Rock Band video game.

(Photo/Reuters)

It’s that time of the year again.

Specialty toy retailer Toys “R” Us issued its take on what this holiday season’s hot toys will be, as it prepares to attract toy shoppers one year after what was the worst holiday sales season in nearly 40 years.

This year, retailers and toy makers alike have focused keenly on prices, understanding that consumers may not be prepared to shell out hundreds of dollars for toys since caution rules their spending.

The Toys “R” Us list this year includes a mind-control game by Mattel called Mindflex, Disney’s netbook Netpaland Hasbro’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Constructicon Devastator action figures.

But who knows what parents will choose this year as prices remain on top of their minds.

Here’s Toys “R” Us’ “Fabulous 15″ in the group of 36 hot toys:

Bakugan Battle Brawlers New Vestroia Maxus Helios 7 in 1 from Spin Master
ChixOs Pink Design-A-Luxury Loft from Spin Master
Color Me a Song from Crayola Beginnings
Disney Netpal
Disney•Pixar Toy Story Interactive Buddies Talking Action Figures (Buzz and Woody) from Thinkway
Disney Princess: Just One Kiss Princess Tiana Doll from Mattel
Fast Lane JLX Over Drive Radio Control All Terrain Vehicle from Toys”R”Us
Laugh & Learn Learning Farm from Fisher-Price
Little Mommy Baby Ah-Choo from Fisher-Price
Mindflex from Mattel
NERF N-Strike Raider Rapid Fire CS-35 from Hasbro
Star Wars Fan’s Choice Anniversary Edition Home One Mon Calamari Star Cruiser from LEGO
Transformers;revenge of the Fallen Constructicon Devastator from Hasbro
Wii Sports Resort from Nintendo
Zhu Zhu Pets Hamster from Cepia

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out a rather glum outlook for the Christmas shopping season.

Last year, holiday sales notched their worst performance in nearly four decades.

This year, they could be a “train wreck” says Britt Beemer, founder and CEO of America’s Research Group.

According to the latest Consumer Mind Reader survey released by America’s Research Group and UBS, 81 percent of respondents said they are pressured by family debts, forcing many to shop less and spend less. 

 “The data foretells a very scary Christmas shopping season with consumers radically cutting back at a time when retailers need shoppers to shore up sagging retail sales,” Beemer said. 

“I am fearful Christmas will be a retail train-wreck this year.”

Earlier this week, Beemer told Reuters that U.S. consumers are still cautious about eating at restaurants and are not planning to loosen the purse strings for holiday spending this year despite signs the economy is improving.

“Everybody wants the recession to be over, but nobody has told the consumer,” Beemer told Reuters.

According to the survey released on Thursday, more than three quarters of families are trying to cut back on how much they are spending.  The average amount that American consumers are cutting out of their monthly spending is $191.11, the highest figure ever recorded for spending cuts in 13 years of ARG Consumer Mind Reader surveys.

Of consumers cutting back, 60.1 percent said they have accepted this new, lower spending level — even when the economic situation improves and they could afford to spend more. 

Also in the basket:

New normal? U.S. consumers coming back cautiously

Pier 1 posts smaller-than-expected loss on cost cuts

Dan Brown novel breaks one-day sales records

Gowns go with the flow on New York fashion runways

Fashion Houses Forced to Test Radical Ideas (WSJ)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check Out unemployment’s strain on consumers’ wallets.

This is not what retailers want to hear on the day before Christmas, but evidence continues to mount that consumers are cutting back spending.

The U.S. Commerce Department said consumer spending contracted 0.6 percent in November, the fifth-straight monthly fall. Incomes shrank 0.2 percent. A separate report showed initial claims for jobless benefits last week reached the highest level in 26 years.

Today, retailers are making a final push to lure last-minute gift hunters but surveys indicate the steep discounts are not inspiring consumers to spend. This year’s U.S. holiday shopping season could be the worst in up to 40 years.

Are you spending more or less this holiday season? Let us know.

Also in the basket:

‘Heritage cocktails’ make a comeback

Cadbury sells drinks unit

More U.S. store closings to come

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the winter wonderland.
 
As in, “I wonder if people are going to fight through the snow, sleet and rain this weekend to come to my store?”
 
A major storm headed for the Northeast could make things dicey for retailers on the last Saturday before Christmas, typically one of the biggest two shopping days of the year.
 
Retailers are hoping for a strong weekend to help lift what many analysts expect to be the worst holiday shopping season in about two decades.
 
But having just walked to work in Chicago, I can tell you that, depending on how this wintry mess hits the Northeast, consumers might have second thoughts about leaving their homes for the mall.
 
Planalytics, which measures the effect of weather on retailers, says the Northeast, lower Midwest and Great Lakes regions could see snow, sleet or freezing rain. On the West Coast, recent rainy conditions could continue to disrupt holiday traffic.
 
Along with steep discounts and extended hours, maybe retailer’s could offer door-to-door transportation.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Retailers may not rebound until 2010: analysts
 
Peltz’s Trian reports 7.18 pct stake in Dr Pepper
 
Beauty joins holiday’s discount mania (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)

Wal-Mart has been the big retail winner in the recession and new data suggests that it could keep some of its gains after the economy recovers.
 
According to a survey by America’s Research Group, 9.3 percent of consumers surveyed said they had shopped at Wal-Mart for the first time this year.
 
Of those, a whopping 98.9 percent said that they would shop there again and the same number said they would continue to shop there once the recession ends.
 
“We’re watching the total domination for this retailer called Wal-Mart,” America’s Research founder and CEO Britt Beemer said.
 
The results were from a series of questions America’s Research asked on behalf of Reuters during the group’s weekly holiday shopping survey.

(Reuters photo)

Check out some cautionary comments about how much weight to put on Black Friday sales reports.
 
The comments come from the Goldman Sachs U.S. economic research group and repeat caution the firm has given in the past about the much-hyped kickoff to the holiday shopping season.
 
1. “Shoppers are not sales.” Essentially, Goldman Sachs notes that just because people are in stores, it doesn’t mean they are buying something.
 
“Over the years, Black Friday has become a cultural event; people go not just to shop but to be a part of the broader experience, which could cause an increase in traffic that bears little relation to consumer spending,” the Goldman team wrote. 

2. “Sales are not profits.” Retailers were offering deep discounts to get consumers into stores on Black Friday, discounts that could hurt profits.
 
3. “One day is not the holiday season.” The team notes that the correlation between data on Black Friday and the entire holiday season has been historically poor.
 
Thanksgiving also came late this year, so there are fewer shopping days between then and Christmas.
 
“Simply put, with less shopping days each one has to be better for the overall holiday shopping season to be strong,” the Goldman Sachs team wrote.
 
Want to keep track of the holiday season as it unfolds for retailers? Check out the Reuters Holiday Shopping page here.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Bargain hunters fail to save retail sales
 
Sears Holdings posts loss, plans store closures
 
Staples posts higher than expected profit
 
Wal-Mart assailed on death (WSJ)

(Reuters photo)

Online retailer Overstock.com is pitching a rescue package for shoppers who are neck-deep in debt.

The company’s “Family Bailout” contest will pay off up to $50,000 in debt belonging to the winner or a member of his or her immediate family. The money gets paid directly to “qualified” creditors like mortgage or credit card companies.

The retailer, which sells excess inventory of clothes, furniture and other items, automatically enters people in the contest when they make an order. People who are too broke to shop or those who want to have the company bail out a friend, can fill out an online form on the site.

“We’re sinking into the most challenging economic environment since the
Great Depression,” said Patrick Byrne, Overstock.com’s chairman and CEO. “This
is our way of lending a helping hand to those that need it.”

Overstock’s move is just the latest effort by a retailer to entice shoppers as the industry heads into what could be its most dismal holiday sales season since the early 1990s.

Amazon.com is already running ads touting deals for a limited time. Items on sale on Monday included a Nikon Coolpix 10-megapixel digital camera for $146.95 (a savings of  $53, according to the website).

Online jeweler Blue Nile began offering a personalized shopping service to help find or order jewelry — a segment that has taken a painful blow from consumer cutbacks in the past few months. The company is betting good customer service is crucial to winning over consumers this holiday season.

The Internet shopping wars are on — may one lucky consumer win some credit relief.

(Graphic/Overstock.com)