Wal-Mart has been the big retail winner in the recession and new data suggests that it could keep some of its gains after the economy recovers.
 
According to a survey by America’s Research Group, 9.3 percent of consumers surveyed said they had shopped at Wal-Mart for the first time this year.
 
Of those, a whopping 98.9 percent said that they would shop there again and the same number said they would continue to shop there once the recession ends.
 
“We’re watching the total domination for this retailer called Wal-Mart,” America’s Research founder and CEO Britt Beemer said.
 
The results were from a series of questions America’s Research asked on behalf of Reuters during the group’s weekly holiday shopping survey.

(Reuters photo)

Check out some cautionary comments about how much weight to put on Black Friday sales reports.
 
The comments come from the Goldman Sachs U.S. economic research group and repeat caution the firm has given in the past about the much-hyped kickoff to the holiday shopping season.
 
1. “Shoppers are not sales.” Essentially, Goldman Sachs notes that just because people are in stores, it doesn’t mean they are buying something.
 
“Over the years, Black Friday has become a cultural event; people go not just to shop but to be a part of the broader experience, which could cause an increase in traffic that bears little relation to consumer spending,” the Goldman team wrote. 

2. “Sales are not profits.” Retailers were offering deep discounts to get consumers into stores on Black Friday, discounts that could hurt profits.
 
3. “One day is not the holiday season.” The team notes that the correlation between data on Black Friday and the entire holiday season has been historically poor.
 
Thanksgiving also came late this year, so there are fewer shopping days between then and Christmas.
 
“Simply put, with less shopping days each one has to be better for the overall holiday shopping season to be strong,” the Goldman Sachs team wrote.
 
Want to keep track of the holiday season as it unfolds for retailers? Check out the Reuters Holiday Shopping page here.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Bargain hunters fail to save retail sales
 
Sears Holdings posts loss, plans store closures
 
Staples posts higher than expected profit
 
Wal-Mart assailed on death (WSJ)

(Reuters photo)

Online retailer Overstock.com is pitching a rescue package for shoppers who are neck-deep in debt.

The company’s “Family Bailout” contest will pay off up to $50,000 in debt belonging to the winner or a member of his or her immediate family. The money gets paid directly to “qualified” creditors like mortgage or credit card companies.

The retailer, which sells excess inventory of clothes, furniture and other items, automatically enters people in the contest when they make an order. People who are too broke to shop or those who want to have the company bail out a friend, can fill out an online form on the site.

“We’re sinking into the most challenging economic environment since the
Great Depression,” said Patrick Byrne, Overstock.com’s chairman and CEO. “This
is our way of lending a helping hand to those that need it.”

Overstock’s move is just the latest effort by a retailer to entice shoppers as the industry heads into what could be its most dismal holiday sales season since the early 1990s.

Amazon.com is already running ads touting deals for a limited time. Items on sale on Monday included a Nikon Coolpix 10-megapixel digital camera for $146.95 (a savings of  $53, according to the website).

Online jeweler Blue Nile began offering a personalized shopping service to help find or order jewelry — a segment that has taken a painful blow from consumer cutbacks in the past few months. The company is betting good customer service is crucial to winning over consumers this holiday season.

The Internet shopping wars are on — may one lucky consumer win some credit relief.

(Graphic/Overstock.com)

Check out the marketing power of Hannah Montana.
 
Watch out Barbie. Hannah is clawing her way up behind you. At least as far as girl’s toys are concerned.
 
According the National Retail Federation’s 2008 top toy survey, Hannah Montana has moved up four spots to the number two position for girls’ in the Top Toys survey, trailing on Mattel’s Barbie.
 
Toys based on the Disney character, who is played by Miley Cyrus, knocked those scrappy Bratz dolls out of the number two spot. Bratz fell all the way to number four behind just-plain-old, everyday, no-specific-name dolls.
 
As far as boys are concerned, the list is similar to last year, with video games in general topping the survey and the Nintendo Wii in the number two spot. Legos, cars and Transformers round out the top five.
 
While the weak economy is leading to expectations of a dismal holiday shopping season, parents could find some bargains in toys.
 
“The good news for parents is that many retailers are featuring toys as loss leaders this year, heavily discounting and promoting these items to bring shoppers into stores,” NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin said.
 
Also in the basket:
 
CPI drops at record pace in October
 
BJ’s Wholesale quarterly profit jumps
 
Why Doesn’t Costco accept food stamps? (N.Y. Times City Room)

(Reuters photo)

Check out quarterly results being dished up with a big side of caution.

Polo Ralph Lauren reported higher second quarter profit, citing increased sales and a lower tax rate.

Polo, whose brands include Polo, Chaps and Club Monaco, affirmed its earnings outlook for fiscal 2009, but it tempered its full-year sales forecast. It now expects a low single-digit increase in 2009 revenue, instead of a low-to-mid single digit increase as earlier expected.

Meanwhile, Maidenform Brands posted better-than-expected third-quarter results as it sold more of its undergarments to department stores and national retail chains.

But as customers like Boscov’s and Mervyns go out of business, it cut its 2008 earnings per share forecast to $1.17 to $1.21 from a prior outlook of $1.22 to $1.30. Maidenform also expects full year net sales to be flat to down 1 percent, compared with a previous view for net sales to be down 1 percent to up 1 percent.

K-Swiss posted better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by the acquisition of Palladium SAS, and raised its 2008 outlook. But the company, which sells its products under the K-Swiss and Royal Elastics brands in the United States and Europe, said the uncertainty caused by the credit markets disruption and likely recession present substantial challenges.

“Excluding Palladium, our financial results and backlog confirm the deteriorating global outlook for K-Swiss in 2008 and 2009,” according to Chairman Steven Nichols.

The results come a day after online jewelry retailer Blue Nile posted lower quarterly profit, as higher diamond prices and tightened credit hurt sales.  It also withdrew a full-year outlook, citing uncertainty over consumer spending, and it expects a “very challenging” holiday season.

“The extensive weakening of the U.S. economy and tight credit conditions faced by consumers hampered our growth,” said Blue Nile Chief Executive Diane Irvine. “The credit freeze has impacted purchases of high-ticket items, as traditional avenues of financing have now closed.”

Also in the basket:

Consumer spending hit by crisis: MasterCard (Reuters)

Private sector cuts 157,000 jobs in Oct (Reuters)

Papa John’s net profit rises but below Street (Reuters)

McQueen Kicks Off Target Design Effort (WWD, subscription required)

(Photo: Reuters)

Circuit City employees say they’re not surprised the struggling retailer is closing 155 stores in an attempt to remain solvent amid deteriorating liquidity and tighter credit conditions from vendors.

Employees interviewed by Reuters correspondent Chelsea Emery at Circuit City’s Paramus Towne Square, New Jersey store seemed resigned to difficut times ahead. The store is not among the 155 slated to close and employees who work there declined to give their last names.

“People thought (this news) was coming with the economy. It’s not a big surprise. They’ve (corporate headquarters) got to do what they’ve got to do. They’re not going to get bailed out like Lehman Brothers,” said television salesman Marko. “People aren’t going to buy plasma TVs when they can’t buy milk … We (employees) are trying to stay positive as we can.”

David, a supervisor for Firedog, said the store had a meeting this morning about the closures. “We’re all nervous,” he said, adding that employees had been told earlier in the year that any store closures would happen much later, even into January. “This (news today about 155 stores) is unexpected.”

Employees “are all nervous. We’re trying to fight to stay open,” computer salesman Anthony said.

(Photo/Reuters)

    The holidays are right around the corner, and the National Retail Federation has visions of tinsel, mistletoe and mall shootings on their mind.
    The NRF and International Council of Shopping Centers on Monday released guidelines to help retailers prepare for shooting incidents at shopping malls and retail stores.
    A joint effort with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and retailers, the plan deals with an “active shooter,” or individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area.
    “We live in a dangerous world and the stakes keep getting higher,” say the guidelines.
         The guidelines warn that a shooter may be a troubled current or former employee, or related to an associate with domestic problems.  
    They also encourage employees to create an escape plan and be aware that law enforcement first responders may show up in bulletproof vests and Kevlar helmets and be carrying rifles, shotguns or handguns, and might use pepper spray.  
    Only as a last resort when your life is in danger, the guidelines say, “Attempt to incapacitate the active shooter. Act with physical aggression and throw items at the active shooter.”  

    Some facts of note:
    - In 100 percent of the shootings the suspect was male.
    - In over 71 percent of the incidents, the shooter was between the ages of 15-25, with 20 percent ages 50-60.
    - In 24 percent of the shootings, the shooter committed suicide before police were able to respond.
     - Active shooter situations are often over within 10 to 15 minutes.    

     From 2004 through 2008 there were 17 shooting incidents at U.S. shopping malls and retail stores, with 34 killed and 33 wounded, according to the NRF. 

(Photo/Reuters)

Check Out the sinking economy creeping into the lives of some of the most resilient shoppers — teenagers, whose need for fashion and fun often trandscends economic downturns.

Rising prices are forcing teens to cut back spending as their parents face mounting gas and food costs, declining home values and a credit crunch, according to a WSL Strategic Retail survey. 

“Clearly we have reached the final frontier of cost cutting. It doesn’t bode well for holiday 2008 when teens, the most demanding of our shopping citizens, are cutting back,” said WSL’s Chief Executive Wendy Liebmann.

Like their parents, teens are paring spending, with 35 percent buying less expensive clothing brands; 28 percent buying less expensive hair care and shaving products; 20 percent cutting back on salon manicures and haircuts; and 19 percent signing up for fewer sports and lessons, according to the survey.

Only one in 10 teens said they had more to spend for back-to-school 2008. That’s down sharply from 2007, when 40 percent said they had bigger shopping budgets.  

Contrast that with the attitude of the super-wealthy, who remain confident shoppers. An Elite Traveler consumer spending survey found that families worth more than $30 million planned to spend the same or more as 2007.
    
Also in the basket: 

U.S. clothing chains falter as shoppers clamp down (Reuters)

Victoria’s New Place (NY Post)

Designer Divorce: Liz Clairborne, Narciso Rodriguez are seperates (NY Post)

(Photo/Reuters)
     
 
 

Christmas may be starting early for many retailers, but that isn’t the case at Starbucks.

While department stores like Macy’s are already in full holiday mode — hoping to get a jump on what is expected to be a dismal holiday season — the Seattle coffee shop chain is waiting until after Halloween and after Thanksgiving to serve up its holiday cheer.

Dorothy Kim, executive vice president of global strategy at Starbucks, said company executives had numerous discussions about when to roll out its holiday products, particularly since the economy is weak and this year’s holiday season has fewer shopping days than usual.

“We thought, ‘Let’s be courageous, let’s launch holiday after Thanksgiving’,” Kim said. “We have four weeks and we’re going to focus our efforts on that.”

The holiday season has traditionally been a very busy time for Starbucks, but Kim said succumbing to temptation and pushing holiday products too soon could have consequences: “You kind of get into this holiday fatigue.”

(Graphic: Starbucks)

It’s Christmas already at Macy’s and yes, indeed, the holiday is on sale.

More than a month ahead of Halloween, the U.S. department store chain has dragged out its colorful collection of ornaments, baubles and beads and discounted the price by 25 percent.

Trees at Macy’s Holiday Lane Christmas shop in downtown San Francisco are festooned with themed ornaments. Besides the requisite trees covered in gingerbread, Santas, and holly, Macy’s offered up a lavender tree, a pink tree, a Hawaii tree, a tree with pink flamingos, a San Francisco-themed tree, a Martha Stewart tree and, yes, a Sex in the City tree (complete with ornaments resembling pink martini glasses and pink Eiffel Towers — a nod to Carrie’s last-season stay in Paris.)

Retail watchers expect this holiday season to be downright dismal in the United States, and some have predicted that it may be one of the worst on record, given the housing downturn, rising food and fuel costs, a weakening job market, and the credit crunch — not to mention headlines from Wall Street this week. 

Macy’s did not immediately return a phone call seeking comment on whether Christmas was coming just a bit early this year — maybe to reap a few early sales before the next shoe drops in the economy?

With the exception of a handful of Italian, German and British tourists looking for souvenirs, Holiday Lane shoppers were few and far between one Friday afternoon.

“We’ve got to have a Christmas ornament from Macy’s,” said British tourist Debbie Simmonds, browsing with her daughter, tour guide in hand.

Still, she balked at the $40 price tag on an elaborate Asian fish ornament and instead settled on a small gold crustacean for $22, passing on the pink poodle ornaments.

Noted Simmonds: “Why would you want a pink poodle on your Christmas tree?”     
 
(Photo: Alexandria Sage)