Check out the grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, a day after dozens of retail chains reported lackluster October sales.

U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 190,000 jobs in October, driving the jobless rate to 10.2 percent, the highest in more than 26 years.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the monthly unemployment rate to edge up to 9.9 percent from 9.8 percent in September.

While job losses have been mounting for months, some analysts and economists say 10 percent unemployment could deal a new psychological blow to U.S. consumers who might previously have felt that the economy was beginning to stabilize.   

Just last week, news that the U.S. economy had returned to growth instilled hope for a rebound in consumer spending. But the latest reports on retail sales and joblessness suggest that such a result may be further down the road.

So, no matter what gimmicks retailers resort to – be it $10 DVDs or upscale wines – the customer, spooked by an almost daily dose of gloomy economic data, may still be unwilling to open their wallets.

Also in the basket:

Target fights Wal-Mart with $10 offers on DVDs

Hermes outshines rivals, optimistic about Christmas

Kraft in waiting game as Cadbury deadline nears

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out a glimmer of hope on the employment front.
 
Planned layoffs for U.S. firms fell in April to their lowest levels since last October, according to a  report from outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. 
 
Okay, layoffs are still at recessionary levels, with U.S. employers announcing plans to cut 132,590 jobs in April.
 
But CEO John Challenger says the fact that they are falling could mean that employers are a little more confident about future business conditions.
 
If employers start feeling more confident and stop laying off people, that could spur more confidence in employees and eventually get them to spend more at retailers, which, after all, is what this blog is about.
 
In a report by Discover, the credit card issuer, the number of consumers saying the economy was getting better was 23 percent in April.  While that might not seem like much, it is still 8 percentage points better than in March.
 
Also, 51 percent of consumers said the economy was getting worse, down from 61 percent in March.
 
“Consumers continue to approach their spending with caution, albeit a little less so in April,” said Julie Loeger, senior vice president of brand and product management for Discover Financial Services.  “As they grow more confident in the economy and their finances, consumers may boost their spending; which should help with an economic recovery.”
 
Are these the “green shoots” of an improving economy, or just optimism waiting to get shot down?
 
Also in the basket:
 
Carlsberg Q1 doubles on Eastern Europe gains, cost cuts
 
In Target tussle, a store becomes a battlefield (N.Y. Times)
 
Barneys aiming to close two stores (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo of job fair)

Check out a persistent weakness in consumer attitudes.

On a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is “very confident,” general economic perception of consumers fell to 36.7 in February from 38 in October, according to a survey by retail research firm NPD Group. The survey uses online answers from 1,000 people each month.

On the heels of worries over the economy, consumers’ intentions to shop also weakened. NPD’s study showed a more than five-point drop to 35.4 in February, compared to 40.7 in October.

“While a five-point drop doesn’t seem like much, it represents millions of dollars,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD.

U.S. consumers have held back on shopping in the past months as they contend with weak home values, tight access to credit and the fear of job losses in a recession.

But not all is lost.

NPD did note that although consumers’ confidence about the economy was fading, their worries about job security were leveling off. While the number of consumers most concerned about job security peaked in December at 38 percent from 33 percent in October, it fell to 34 percent in February.

“I think it’s premature to talk ‘recovery,’ ” Cohen said. “I think if we are able to spot signs of stabilization, we’ll be better positioned for recovery and then the return to growth.”

* From the Reuters Food and Agriculture Summit 2009, watch out for speakers including Sara Lee Corp CEO Brenda Barnes, Joe Sanderson, CEO of Sanderson Farms and CEO of Feeding America Vicki Escarra.

Also in the basket:

Commodities down but food prices lag

Wal-Mart revamping Great Value

Ackman’s Pershing nominates 5 to Target board

Coke expected to get OK for China Huiyuan deal

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out more grim news on the jobs front, from the food sector.

Pilgrim’s Pride became the latest consumer-related company to cut jobs when it said on Friday that it plans to idle three U.S. plants because of an oversupply of chicken and weak consumer demand. The plants, in Georgia, Louisiana and Arkansas, employ about 3,000 people, or about 7 percent of the company’s U.S. workers.

The chicken producer, which is fighting to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, said the closings were needed to reduce production of low-value meat that is draining its finances. 

But it’s not just chicken producers feeling the crunch of the recession. 

Reuters reporter Bob Burgdorfer wrote this week that Americans are eating more hamburgers and fewer steaks as the economy wallows in recession — leading to huge losses at U.S. feedyards that fatten the cattle for steaks.

The U.S. Agriculture Department has said that prices for cattle, hogs and turkeys will stay weak for much of this year because of oversupply even as the nation’s meat production declines.

Also in the basket:

Consumer confidence still low

Sony chief to oversee electronics unit

Gap’s Q4 shines but lack of outlook hurts shares

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out more than half a million more people looking for work.
 
The layoffs have been all over the news, but when you see them all added together it shows just how bad this economy is.
 
The economy shed a worse-thank-expected 598,000 jobs in December. That’s the worse one-month drop since Richard Nixon was president. 
 
“The report is awful. it’s even worse than it looks, because people did not hire workers prior to Christmas, but they still did enormous layoffs after Christmas,” Cary Leahey, economist at Decision Economics.
 
Retailers shed 45,000 jobs in January and have cut 219,000 jobs since November as they went through the worst holiday shopping season in at least four decades.
 
And the hits just keep on coming. Macy’s  cut another 7,000 jobs on Monday.
 
Where’s that stimulus again?
 
Also in the basket:
 
Tim Hortons, Cold Stone to wed doughnuts and ice cream
 
Hermes, LVMH bring relief to luxury sector
 
Amazon New York event spurs talk of new Kindle model

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out how it’s no longer cool to be Kool.

Reynolds American has given the Kool brand a demotion, moving it to what it calls a “support” brand – meaning it will actually get less support.

Before Tuesday, Kool had been a “growth” brand, which meant that, along with Camel and Pall Mall, it was one of the brands where Reynolds focused most of its marketing efforts.

Kool also had been Reynolds’ leading brand in the menthol cigarette market, a market that has been growing while the rest of the U.S. cigarette market shrinks.

Now Reynolds wants is leading brand, Camel, to be its leading menthol brand, too. So Kool gets kut.

But Kool can at least take heart that at Reynolds, the brand designations can fluctuate. Pall Mall was once a “support” brand, but Reynolds saw it growing even without the extra marketing dollars. So one day Pall Mall got the call to come hang out with the popular crowd. In other words, it was cool to be Pall Mall. 

(Additional reporting by Brad Dorfman)
    
 Also in the basket:

 McDonald’s August sales rise

KFC shoring up security for secret recipe (Associated Press)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out more signs of consumers being put in a vise.
 
Personal income rose 0.1 percent in June, the Commerce Department said. That was the lowest rise since April 2007.
 
And in fact, if it were not for the economic stimulus checks some consumers received in June, disposable income would have shrunk, the department said.
 
Meanwhile, costs continued to rise. The personal consumption expenditures price index — an inflation gauge — rose at its highest year-over-year pace since May 1991.
 
Consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in June, but actually fell 0.2 percent accounting for inflation. So consumers are spending more to get less.
 
Oh, and one more thing on the gloomy economic front, Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc said planned layoffs at U.S. companies rose 26 in July from June.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Retailer Boscov’s files bankruptcy, may be sold
 
Walgreen July same-store sales up
 
Burani says investor eyeing bid for 15-18 percent stake
 
Calvin Klein’s latest controversy (WWD)

(Photo: Reuters)

 Check out what Wal-Mart customers have to say about the economy and how it is changing how they shop.
 
Reuters reporters went to Wal-Mart stores in New Jersey, Illinois and California this week to see how the weak economy (see today’s jobs report) has made them change how they grocery shop.
 
Here are some of their comments. For the full story, click here. For the Reuters Television video, click here.
“I don’t buy a lot of expensive meat anymore. I buy more vegetables, because they are cheaper.” — Fran Allen, 77-year-old part-time factory employee from Romeoville, Illinois.
 
“I buy what is on the list and nothing that isn’t on the list.” — Patricia Norris, homemaker in Romeoville.
 
“That doesn’t cover it…. I went over again … It’s almost impossible to stay on budget.” – Barbara Armour, whose family food budget is $350-$400 month, after shopping at a Santa Clarita, Cal. store.
 
“Something has to be done, because these prices are just getting ridiculous.” — Karen Stewart, hospital housekeeper from Plainfield, Ill.
 
“I’m making changes just because of how much I’m paying on gas…. I went to a gas station with $100 and came out with nothing.” — Jamie Dorgan, homemaker from Joliet, Ill.

“People might not buy clothes, shoes, jewelry, but they need food. People have to eat.” — Ravi Varma, a convenience store operator who uses the Secaucus Wal-Mart as his supplier.

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Family Dollar profit falls, cuts full-year forecast

Brands’ dilemma: Target elbows way into upscale beauty world (WWD)

Claiborne to shape up U.S. assets