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Retailers, consumers and prices

May 29th, 2008

Analyst puzzles over Sears’ higher EBITDA plans

Posted by: Aarthi Sivaraman

sears.jpgSears Holdings Corp reported a quarterly loss this morning. But the thing that left analysts like Credit Suisse’s Gary Balter scratching their heads was the company’s expectations for higher earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the full year.

“We are struggling with what we are missing in the context of Q1 being down over $385 million in EBITDA and other comments in the release that talk about the expected difficult sales and gross margin environment,” Balter said in his research note.

Sears said sales fell about 6 percent to $11.1 billion in the quarter. Total U.S. same-store sales were down 8.6 percent as the appliance, lawn, garden and apparel segments languished.

Balter described the second half of the past year for Sears as an “unmitigated disaster” with very high inventories, and expenses that pointed to sales levels that were not reached.

Noting that Sears was already a lean company, Balter said that its latest EBITDA plans implied expense declines of  over 14 percent — which to him, doesn’t seem a viable option unless, he said,  ”the company is planning for even lower service levels and liquidating the company.”

For the quarter, Sears said selling and administrative costs rose 6 percent. The Illinois-based retailer, which has reorganized into five types of business units, and has boosted spending in some areas.

The other alternative to achieve higher EBITDA, Balter said, could include gains on asset sales which he didn’t think would solve Sears’ longer-term issues.

And Sears didn’t seem to be helping him understand any of this  — Balter said in his note that ”there is no one at the company to contact.”

Can someone at Sears, please…?

(Photo: Reuters)

April 1st, 2008

Check Out Line: Another weak week

Posted by: Brad Dorfman

clothes.jpgCheck out the weak sales week.
 
Chain store sales posted their weakest year-over-year increase in five years in the latest week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS index. Sales were up only 0.5 percent in the week ended March 29, the worst performance since April 5, 2003.
 
One culprit: weak sales of spring clothes.
 
In a survey taken for ICSC-UBS on March 27- March 30, 59 percent of consumers said they cut back on spring apparel purchases or eliminated buying it altogether.
 
Just over one-third of people surveyed cited budget constraints, while 10 percent cited weather.
 
“For the month, ICSC expects industry comparable-store sales to be flat to down slightly on a year-over-year unadjusted basis,” ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira said.
 
ICSC now estimates Target same-store sales to be down 1 percent in March, Kohl’s to be down 8 percent, J.C. Penney to be down 11 percent and Wal-Mart to be up 1 percent.
 
Also in the basket:
 
Talbots sees loss in 2008
 
Electrolux says to make Q1 operating loss
 
(Phoot: Reuters)