Check out the expected increase early next year in import cargo volume at U.S. retail container ports.

The numbers could rise year-over-year in February, for the first increase in more than two years, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and IHS Global Insight.

“This could be the turnaround we’ve been waiting to see for a long time,” NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “There’s not enough data yet to establish a clear trend, but we’re hopeful that this is a sign of recovery.”

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.14 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in September, the most-recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 3 percent from August and 16 percent from September 2008.

Volume for October, traditionally the peak month of the year, was estimated at 1.17 million TEU, down 15 percent from last year, according to the survey. November, December and January are forecast to be down 11 percent, flat and down 3 percent, respectively.

However, February, the slowest month of the year, is forecast to report cargo of 973,872 TEU, which would be a 16 percent increase over February 2009, while March is expected to show a 5 percent increase at 1.02 million TEU, according to the survey.

“The second half of 2009 has continued to see declines from 2008’s levels, but not as large as we saw during the first half of this year,” IHS Global economist Paul Bingham said. “These ‘less bad’ numbers are evidence that the industry is seeing early signs of recovery.”

Also in the basket:

Heinz profit falls, raises full-year view

Zale posts wider loss on weak jewelry demand

Hormel 4th-qtr profit jumps despite sales decline

American Eagle posts in-line 3rd qtr profit

Dollar Tree profit beats estimates

Carl’s Jr. restaurants serving Coke’s vitaminwater

(Reuters photo)

As we mentioned on Shop Talk this morning, the National Retail Federation expects total holiday sales this year to fall 1 percent.

The trade group held a conference call later in the day to add details about their forecast. Here is what NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis said about the forces that will shape the upcoming holiday shopping season:

Unemployment:

“The golden ticket this year for the holiday season is going to be unemployment. With the unemployment rate at about 10 percent, we know that a lot of Americans will be pulling back on the holiday season because they have to, because they don’t have a job or because someone in their family doesn’t have a job.

“But the unemployment picture really goes far beyond that 10 percent because anyone who knows someone who is out of a job, looking for work or is concerned about losing their job is going to be pulling back. You don’t want to be the guy who drives up in a brand new BMW if your neighbor just got laid off.”

Retailers’ efforts to prepare for this year’s impending holiday season:

“This year, retailers knew going in consumers would be very price conscious and frugal for the holiday season and they’ve been able to plan accordingly.

“They’re doing everything they can to cut back on their operating costs. They’re pulling back on inventory. As we have seen from NRF’s port tracker report, retail containers to the nations’ ports are down to the levels we saw in 2002 and 2003, which is an indicator that retailers really aren’t shipping as much to their stores as they may have been in previous years.

… That will help retailers protect their profits and will keep them from, we think, having to resort to any panicked, unplanned markdowns at the last minute because they have too much merchandise.”

What shoppers can expect to see in stores:

“For the holidays specifically, we are expecting retailers to focus on a lot of lower-ticket items. This will be the holiday season of the blue jean instead of the Blu-ray.

… Absent, we think except perhaps for Black Friday, will be a lot of promotions of flat screen TVs and laptops. So, really more of a focus on the basics, the necessities and the lower-priced items this holiday season.”

“We are expecting a lot of aggressive discounts and promotions. The good news … is that retailers should be able to protect their profit margins this year because they have been planning these sales and promotions throughout the holiday season. Because they have done a nice job controlling their inventory, retailers really won’t have as many issues with unplanned markdowns as they may have a year ago, but consumers may start to find that retailers are coming out with many aggressive promotions and deals very quickly.”

(Photo: Reuters)

The National Retail Federation has issued its 2009 back-to-school spending survey and the results show that the ringing of school bells won’t necessarily translate into the happy ringing of cash registers.

But the one part of stores where parents and students expect to boost their spending despite the ongoing recession is electronics.

The average family plans to spend $167.84 on consumer electronic purchases for back to school this year, up from $151.61 last year, according to the NRF survey.

Among college kids, spending on electronics or computer-related items is expected to increase to $266.08 from $211.89 last year.

Those trends are not lost on Wal-Mart.

On its own blog, Wal-Mart is talking about its plan to win sales from back-to-school shoppers:

“This year Wal-Mart Stores and Walmart.com have teamed up with Dell to offer you a Great deal on Laptops.

Starting this week, when you go and visit your local store you will see Colors everywhere, from Pink, Blue, Red, Indigo, Green, Yellow, White, Orange and everyones new fav. Purple! In total you will see allot {sic] of colors spread out into a array of products from everything needed in the dorm, apartment, bedroom, or the complete house!”

For those who many not want or may already have a purple laptop, Wal-Mart is also ready to wow shoppers with “color matching accessories” like speakers, mice, USB flash drives and hard drives.

Looks like even if overall back-to-school sales won’t be cheery, the consumer electronics sure will be!

(Screenshot of Walmart.com)

Check out the expected lower spending on back-to-school items.

Parents plan to spend less money on back-to-school gear for their children this year in another worrisome sign for retailers heading into what is normally their second biggest selling period behind Christmas.

The average family with children in kindergarten through 12th grade is expected to spend $548.72 on back-to-school merchandise this year, down 7.7 percent from 2008, according to the National Retail Federation.

Retailers can take some heart, however, as college students and their parents are expected to boost spending 3 percent to buy the latest pricey electronics and dorm-room decor. Of course, total college spending is expected to fall 4 percent as fewer attend college.

Retailers are taking action to deal with such pressures as department store operator J.C. Penney is launching a website for teens to drive back-to-school sales.

And there are some positive signs of a modest recovery.

Also in the basket:

CIT survival ensnared in regulatory battle

Marketside food items for sale in Wal-Mart stores

Grocer Basha’s files for Chapter 11 protection

Burger King Scraps Plans For $1 Burger (Wall Street Journal)

Dial-a-Mattress Retailer Blames Troubles on Stores, Executive Team (Wall Street Journal)

(Reuters photo)

The recession hammered U.S. holiday sales last year and new research suggests that it also drove up ”shrink” — a retail industry term for shoplifting, employee theft, and administrative errors.

An estimated $36.5 billion was lost to “shrink” in 2008, according to preliminary findings from the latest National Retail Security Survey released today.

That figure is up from $34.8 billion in 2007, an increase of nearly 5 percent.

The survey, conducted by the National Retail Federation and the University of Florida, also showed that retail shrink averaged 1.52 percent of retail sales in 2008, up from 1.44 percent in 2007.

“Criminals have found a way to manipulate and corrupt the retail industry,” said Richard Hollinger, lead author of the report and professor of criminology at the University of Florida.

Retailers grappling with the worst recession in decades have been forced to cut spending on everything from security to labor in a bid to protect profits. That scenario ”leaves new opportunities for thieves to take advantage of companies,” Hollinger said.

According to the survey, 44 percent ($15.9 billion) of the 2008 retail losses were due to employee theft. 14 percent of those cases involved collusion with outsiders.

Shoplifting accounted for 35 percent ($12.7 billion) of the losses. Administrative error and other losses were blamed for 15 percent ($5.4 billion) of the total, while vendor fraud came in at 4 percent ($1.4 billion).

The data came on the heels of a study released June 10th on organized retail crime, in which 92 percent of retailers said they were victims of retail crime, and 73 percent said the problem was getting worse.

(Photo: Reuters)

The National Retail Federation and the Retail Industry Leaders Association are joining forces.

The competing trade groups say they will merge to create a single association to represent retail interests in Washington DC. 

“The challenges and opportunities before our members are unprecedented. Now is the right time to bring these associations together,” said RILA Chairman, Robert Niblock, CEO of Lowe’s Cos, and NRF Chairman Mike Ullman, CEO of J.C. Penney, in a joint statement.

Currently, retailers are lobbying lawmakers against passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. The pending bill would let workers decide whether to unionize by signing a petition or by holding a secret-ballot election. Employers can now require a secret ballot.

Many retailers have voiced strong opposition to the bill, and Wal-Mart’s newly installed CEO Mike Duke told the Today Show that it is a bill that “would be damaging to the American economy.”

On the heels of the merger announcement, NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin made public her plans to retire. In an open letter to NRF members, Mullin says she told the leaders of the NRF last year that she intended to retire after more than 30 years at the trade group.

“During my incredible ride at NRF, I have seen the retail industry undergo a real transformation,” she says in an open letter to NRF members. “(I’m not too embarrassed to admit I joined NRF before the bar code was mainstream.)”

(Logos from NRF.com and RILA.org)

Check out retail executives’ worries coming true.

At the National Retail Federation’s annual convention earlier this month, retail executives and analysts said they were worried there would be no big event to get consumers back into the stores and get them shopping until the back-to-school season.

Still recovering from the holiday spending and watching jobs evaporate by the day, it appears consumers don’t intend to jump back into shopping for Valentine’s Day, the first main holiday since Christmas.

The NRF said its 2009 Valentine’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions survey found that consumers plan to spend an average $102.50 on Valentine’s gifts and merchandise – down from last year’s $122.98 per person. 

 ”Valentine’s Day this year will be more about small tokens of affection rather than extravagant purchases,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president at BIGresearch, which conducted the survey.

The survey found that 91 percent of people said they will spend the most on their spouse — $67.22, with other family members, such as children, getting about one-fifth of their budget, or $20.95.

Also in the basket:

(Photo: Reuters) 

What’s one way to get reluctant shoppers back into the stores? Give them a sales tax holiday — or two or three.

That’s what the National Retail Federation is urging the government to consider as part of the economic stimulus plan being debated in Washington.

“We think what this can do is to help consumers psychologically get back into the stores,” said Rachelle Bernstein, NRF vice president and tax counsel, on a call with reporters. “We are hopeful that with a national sales tax holiday, which will get a lot of attention, that it might be something to help make the consumer feel good again.” 

The NRF outlined its sales tax idea in December in a letter sent to the incoming Obama administration. The trade group proposed that tax holidays be held on a national level in March, July and October 2009, each lasting 10 days. By temporarily lifting the sales tax for the three 10-day periods, the NRF said consumers could save nearly $20 billion. 

The NRF returned to touting the idea on Tuesday, the same day it forecast that retail sales will fall 0.5 percent this year–the first decline predicted since it began issuing such forecasts in 1995. The NRF said a large part of the forecast hinges on the government taking swift action to implement a stimulus plan.

In order to garner support among U.S. states for so many tax holidays, the trade group is suggesting the federal government reimburse lost revenue to the 45 states that charge sales taxes.

While state sales tax rates range from 2.9 percent to 7.25 percent, providing consumers a break from paying that tax seems to entice them to spend more than usual.

“Sales tax holidays really bring a great boost to spending during the holiday period,” Bernstein said. ”Some retailers report to us that they may see a spike in spending as high as 35 to 45 percent over what it would otherwise be during a holiday period.”

(Photo\Reuters)

Black Friday has come and gone but what on earth happened at the cash registers over the Thanksgiving weekend? The data is trickling in, and so are the early critiques. (See our previous blogs: Treat Black Friday reports cautiously and Black Friday data spurs more questions than answers)

Here is a break down of the latest reports and what data is still to come:

National Retail Federation:

According its 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch and published on Sunday, the NRF said more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend (which includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projections for Sunday), up from 147 million shoppers last year. 

Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend, up 7.2 percent over last year’s $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion, up from $34.6 billion a year ago.

The results came from a survey that polled 3,370 consumers from Nov. 27-29. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percent.

ShopperTrak: 

ShopperTrak RCT’s National Retail Sales Estimate found sales on Black Friday and Saturday rose 1.9 percent from 2007 – with each day posting total sales of $10.6 billion and $6.0 billion, respectively.

It said Saturday sales fell 0.8 percent compared with last year as most Black Friday promotions ended.  Sales on Saturday last year rose 5.4 percent over 2006, with $6.1 billion spent that day.   

“At this point, we anticipate sales levels will continue to slow this week as consumers will remain home, looking for additional holiday sales toward the end of the shortened 2008 season,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, in a statement on Monday.

ShopperTrak’s results are derived from statistics from the Commerce Department on sales of items like apparel, furniture, and electronics, combined with data it tracks on shopper traffic in stores.

SpendingPulse:

On Monday, SpendingPulse, a data service provided by MasterCard Advisors, said sales at U.S. specialty apparel retailers rose 1.6 percent on Friday and Saturday from a year earlier, but sales at electronics specialty retailers fell 14.3 percent. Luxury retailers saw a 2.4 percent increase,  while e-commerce sales rose 11.8 percent, it said. 

“We definitely think there was some pent-up demand that came to the front lines on Black Friday,” said SpendingPulse’s Michael McNamara. “Major discounting obviously attracted that.” 

SpendingPulse is a macroeconomic indicator that estimates U.S. retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

Data to come:

Dec. 3: SpendingPulse will release its full report on November monthly sales.

Dec. 3: ShopperTrak will release its complete report for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, in addition to sales and traffic data for the week ending Nov. 29.

Dec. 4: Major retail chains, like Wal-Mart, Gap and Kohl’s, will release their November monthly sales figures and are expected to comment on the Black Friday weekend.

(Photo\Reuters)

Holiday gift cards are feeling a lot less like the gift that keeps on giving.

Over the past few years, gift card popularity exploded and retailers rushed to display new merchandise the day after Christmas, hoping to attract shoppers flush with new cards.

Retailers could count on consumers to splurge on full-priced merchandise or spend all the money on the card, plus a few dollars more.

But as shoppers have witness a slew of retail bankruptcies this year (Sharper Image, Linens N Things, Mervyn’s, Circuit City), they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and relatives.

A survey by America’s Research Group conducted for Reuters found that 43.2 percent of respondents said they will give gift cards less often this year because they worry that those cards would be worthless if a retailer files for bankruptcy.

Additionally, with retailers already rolling out tremendous discounts to entice consumers to spend their limited dollars, shoppers may find they can buy presents this year for less than the amount they were planning to spend on a gift card.

“You’d rather buy a $75 sweater for $30, than a $50 gift card,” said NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis.

Roughly 10 percent of sales during the November-December holiday season happen the week after Christmas, according to the National Retail Federation. But weaker gift card demand could make ringing up those sales, in an environment where shoppers are already loathe to spend, an even bigger challenge.

(Photo: Reuters)