Check out forecasts for small gains in holiday sales.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. holiday sales this year will rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion as consumers grapple with rising unemployment, and higher food and grocery costs.

That would mark the smallest gain since 2002, when retail sales rose 1.3 percent as a slumping economy and job woes also weighed on sentiment.

The retail group’s chief economist expects discounters to fare better this holiday season as shoppers hunt for bargains, and she does not expect an economic turnaround until the second half of next year.

Another group expects 2008 holiday sales to be even more dour.

TNS Retail Forward predicts 1.5 percent growth, which would represent the worst holiday showing in 17 years. A forecast from Deloitte calls for a sales rise of 2.5 percent to 3 percent.

These forecasts can be hard to compare, because many use different timeframes to measure holiday sales. But in the bleakest forecast yet, Britt Beemer of America’s Research Group is already predicting a decline in holiday sales.

Also in the basket:

Banking bailout not seen aiding credit crisis

Longs Drugs says no to merger talks with Walgreen

China vows to crack down on exports amid milk crisis

(Photo/Reuters)

(Due to a tabulation error in the research, STORES Magazine has issued a corrected list. This is being corrected to remove Coldwater Creek from the Top 10 list and replace it with Citi Trends at No. 10) 

Though the retail industry cooled last year to its slowest growth since 2002, a number of retail companies experienced fiery growth, according to the National Retail Federation. The hottest retailers, in general, grew through acquisitions, according to the trade group’s STORES Magazine.

NRF’s 2008 Hot 100 Retailers list, which will be included in STORES’ August issue, ranks the nation’s fastest-growing retailers that are publicly traded and have more than $100 million in annual sales.

Topping the list this year is CVS Caremark, which grew 2007 revenue by 74 percent because of its acquisition of Caremark. The No. 2 spot also went to a drugstore chain — Rite Aid, which purchased Brooks Pharmacy units in New England and Eckerd on the East Coast, saw revenue grow narly 40 percent. IHOP, which recently changed its name to DineEquity Inc, was No. 3 with last year’s purchase of Applebee’s.

WalMart, the world’s largest retailer, clocked in at No. 80, with 8.6 percent growth. Its mass market rival Target Corp, brought up the rear at No. 100, with 6.5 percent revenue growth.

Here is a list of the top 10 retailers, according to STORES Magazine: 

          1. CVS Caremark

          2. Rite Aid

          3. IHOP

          4. Amazon.com

          5. American Apparel

          6. GameStop

          7. BJ’s Restaurants

          8. Chipotle Mexican Grill

          9. FTD

          10. Citi Trends

     (Photo: Reuters)

The average price for gasoline soared 6.9 cents over the last week to a record of $3.79 a gallon. That means the national price for regular, self-service gasoline is now up 57 cents from a year ago, according to data relased by the federal Energy Information Administration on Monday.

With personal income stagnating, consumers are finding it hard to offset the ongoing spike in gas prices.

According to the latest Discover U.S. Spending Monitor, which polls consumers on their spending habits, 54 percent of consumers are cutting back on basic living expenses, like grocery shopping, to compensate for the high cost of gas. 

Nearly 55 percent are cutting back on discretionary spending, like eating out and going to the movies. 

High gasoline prices have soured economic sentiment. Seventy-four percent of consumers think the U.S. economy is getting worse – up two and a half points from the week before, according to the survey. 

In addition, nearly 54 percent think that their personal finances are deteriorating.   

Meanwhile, the Deloitte Research Leading Index of Consumer Spending has reached its lowest level since 2001. The index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

“This significant drop in the Index gives us empirical data of what many have long suspected,” said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist with Deloitte Research and author of the monthly index. “The current economic downturn is as significant as anything we have seen since the last recession.”  

Deloitte said retailers are now trying to aggressively court consumers to get them to spend their tax rebate checks in their stores.

But unless they sell food of fuel, retailers could face big challenges in that arena.

According to the most recent survey by the National Retail Federation,  U.S. consumers will use much of their tax rebate money to pay for increasingly expensive gas and groceries, rather than spend it on electronics or clothes. 

(Photo: Reuters — “A man walks beneath a sign advertising the price of gasoline at a filling station in San Francisco, California on April 28, 2008)