Check out disappointing September retail sales

Many U.S. retailers posted worse-than-expected sales at stores open at least a year on Wednesday, and some cut their profit outlooks and said things won’t improve anytime soon as consumers remain shaken by the financial crisis, job worries and the housing slump.

Discounter Wal-Mart Stores and warehouse clubs managed the best sales performances in September as shoppers sought bargains on necessities. Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retailer, stood by its third quarter earnings forecast.

Apparel retailers and department stores were particularly hard hit, and even luxury chain Neiman Marcus said consumer demand will stay weak for an extended period. Kohl’s, J.C. Penney and Nordstrom cut quarterly profit forecasts.

The results could further subdue expectations for the 2008 holiday season, expected to be one of the weakest in recent years.

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(Photo: Reuters)

The fallout from the turmoil on Wall Street will be felt by retailers who have set up shop on one of Manhattan’s most prestigious avenues - Fifth Avenue.

In the past week, Lehman has failed, Merrill Lynch agreed to be acquired by Bank of America, and the government had to step in to keep giant insurer AIG from failing.

It has created chaos on Wall Street and expectations of thousands of impending job losses. In August alone, New York City’s securities companies axed 10,000 workers.

It is the exact opposite of what retailers needed headed into what is expected to be one of the worst holiday season in years.

In a research note, Goldman Sachs highlights which retailers may fare the worst.

Wall Street’s financial turmoil heading into the holiday season is likely to negatively impact key NY centric retailers with meaningful flagship
presences.

Saks and Tiffany top the list with each of their flagships accounting for 20% and 10% of total sales, respectively. These key stores have been outperforming an already weakened store base as tourism has provided a bright spot. In light of a dampened worldwide wealth effect and strengthening dollar, more modest tourism gains should provide less of an offset to today’s worsening domestic demand.

….Luxury retailers and brands such as Coach, Nordstrom, and Ralph Lauren, are likely to also be pressured this season as waning Wall St bonuses and volatile equity markets erode confidence at the high end. While their NY flagships (Nordstrom is not in NYC) do not carry the same significance as those of Tiffany and Saks, we expect results to be impacted nonetheless

(Photo: Reuters)

Upscale department store Nordstrom continues to have trouble finding a suitable site to open its first Manhattan venue.

Seattle-based Nordstrom said Thursday it wants to expand into one of the world’s most lucrative markets. But the high price of island real estate and lack of appropriate venues has hampered efforts, Nordstrom’s Chief Financial Officer Michael Koppel told analysts at the Goldman Sachs conference.

“A great location means a lot of top-line business, but a very high cost of occupancy,” Koppel said.

Also, “a great location usually doesn’t mean you get the kind of floor plate you like,” meaning Nordstrom would have to reconfigure an existing older building instead of new construction tailored to its needs.

“We’re still very interested, but want to be very prudent because it’s a big investment and we want to make sure we do right,” Koppel said. 

Nordstrom is reportedly looking for around 200,000 square feet in an upscale area with nearby public transportation. In May the company hired a retail real estate consulting and brokerage firm to help it find suitable a Manhattan location.

Nordstrom was reportedly interested in the former Drake Hotel on the northwest corner of 56th and Park earlier this year, but the building’s developer had financing troubles and the deal fell through.

That deal would have given Nordstrom an entrance on 57th Street, and desirable exposure to nearby upscale retailers such as Prada, Burberry and Dior.

Check out retailer’s different views on future profits.
 
Kohl’s, the mid-priced department store, says it expects third quarter earnings to be better than expected, while upscale Nordstrom cut its forecast range.
 
That’s not to say that Nordstrom’s consumers are flocking to Kohl’s as the U.S. economy suffers. Kohl’s profit fell in the second quarter. But cutting inventory was enough for it raise its profit estimate for the full year. Deutsche Bank retail analyst William Dreher also said the company will be able to set itself apart with fresh merchandise because it cleaned out its inventory.
 
Nordstrom, meanwhile, cut its full-year profit outlook. But while its customers are spending less, the retail chain says they are not trading down.
 
And if they were, they certainly aren’t trading down to J.C. Penney, which saw a 36 percent drop in profit and forecast third quarter earnings below analysts’ estimates. Sales also fell 2.5 percent.
 
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 (Photo: Reuters)

Check Out lower quarterly results at Neiman Marcus — the latest in a string of results proving that high-end stores are running into the same trouble as their lower-tier peers.  

The company, known for its namesake and Bergdorf Goodman stores, said on Wednesday that quarterly sales fell almost 1 percent to $1.06 billion, while net profit fell nearly 7 percent to $55.4 million.

Less than a month ago, upscale department store operator Nordstrom reported lower profit and sales, citing a challenging retail environment — a sign that luxury retail, considered more insulated from economic volatility, may not be fully immune, as rich but increasingly wary consumers witness skyrocketing gasoline and food prices, and plummeting homes values.

Even Saks reported a lower-than-expected profit last month, as markdowns hurt gross margins.

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(Photo: Reuters)

(Note: Neiman Marcus results links to release on Business Wire)

Check out Dillard’s plunging profit.

In case you missed it, the department store chain operator reported a 94 percent drop in quarterly profit after the closing bell on Thursday.

“The weak economic conditions, particularly in Florida, made it extremely difficult to achieve profitable sales levels,” Chief Executive William Dillard said in a statement.

If you didn’t know Dillard’s was reporting earnings on Thursday, you weren’t alone.

The company didn’t disclose that they planned to report until less than three hours before they released results. To put it in perspective, if you gave your doctor that little notice before canceling your check up, you would still have to pay for the appointment.

While the vast majority of public companies give at least several days notice for when they plan to report earnings and often have the date on their public calendars months in advance, Dillard’s typically does not.

The retailer also shuns other modern investor-friendly practices like making executives available to answer analysts’ questions in a quarterly conference call.

But the company has been right on top of the trend of department stores getting clobbered by the weak economy. The stock is down 54 percent since the end of June, compared with the 42 percent drop by rival Macy’s and 32 percent drop by Nordstrom.

Dillard’s spokeswoman Julie Bull did not return a call seeking comment on the company’s communications policies.

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What does gas at $4.50 a gallon mean for some mall-based department stores?

A downgrade by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman sharply raised its forecast for oil prices in the second half of this year, saying it expects U.S. crude to average $141 a barrel, up from a previous projection of $107. Goldman also forecasts prices will rise further next year to average $148.

That is not good news for retailers.

“Higher energy spending in the second half is likely setting the stage for a more challenging backdrop for consumer discretionary sectors, particularly for the department store stocks,” Goldman noted.

Goldman downgraded JC Penney and Nordstrom to ”neutral” from “buy.” It swapped its conviction list “buy” designation on Kohl’s with Wal-Mart. It upgraded off-price retailer TJX to “buy” from “neutral.”

Goldman also cut its second half same-store sales estimates for JC Penney, Kohl’s, Nordstrom and Macy’s.

“We believe companies will face an uphill battle against escalating energy prices offset by easier top-line compares and the anniversary of 2007’s extremely warm Fall season,” Goldman said about the second half of the year. ”In the end, we believe energy and constrained cash flow will win this tug-o-war causing same store sales to re-decelerate as the second half progresses.”
 
(Photo: Reuters)